Taniel Profile picture
1 Nov, 21 tweets, 4 min read
All eyes are on Virginia, but so many states have major stakes on the ballot tomorrow. With hours to go before Election Day, it's time to drill down.

Here's a thread on many states that matter: idea is to encapsulate as many stakes as I can for each within 280 characters.
A disclaimer that this thread can't possibly rival the mega-thread I did 12 months ago what was brewing in each state, plus DC and Puerto Rico. (See below.)

But getting our attention to the breadth of what's going on feels just as important!
1️⃣ Virginia (where else to start?):

—Gov race is the one we're all looking at
—Dems also defend Assembly (GOP needs +5 to tie)
—Combined: do Dems keep trifecta?
—Two other statewide races: LG & AG
—Watch prosecutor race in Chesapeake (most others decided in primary or at filing)
2️⃣ Pennsylvania

—A (GOP-held) seat on Supreme Court!
—3 other statewide judgeships
—Hot battles for county control across the state
—Conservative money poured into school board
—Progs seek to confirm progress on local judges
—Ds favored for Pittsburgh mayor, Philly DA (Krasner)
3️⃣ Colorado:

—Referendum could cut property taxes
—Another could increase pot tax for ed
—Boulder votes on housing occupancy
—Big D/R battle for Aurora's council (site of Mike Coffman's comeback)
—School board clashes: Right is making a big push in Douglas, Mesa, El Paso, more
4️⃣ Iowa:
—Keep an eye on a local referendum in Polk County (that's Des Moines) on $$ for water & land conservation

5️⃣ Maine:
—Satewide: A costly campaign on a power line, & a vote on $$ for transportation
—Portland could overhaul city gov. Also votes on homeless shelter limits
6️⃣ Arizona:
—Tucson votes on a $15 minimum wage, amid national debate where state senior has been prominent

7️⃣ New Mexico:
—Mayoral races in Santa Fe & Albuquerque, where mayor faces the "law & order" sheriff
—Right's "CRT" push to win school board plays out here too
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8️⃣ Florida
—GOP seek to defend Miami's mayorship
—Watch St. Petersburg's mayoral & redistricting votes

9️⃣ Texas
—Referendum to bar restrictions on religious services
—... & tighten judicial eligibility
—... & to set up a new judicial commision
—Watch Dem-held legislative special
1️⃣0️⃣ New Hampshire:
—Manchester's mayoral race always hotly disputed
—GOP lawmaker runs in Laconia, talks of "indoctrination"

—Many cities elect their mayor. Watch Hamden, New Haven, Danbury...
—GOP slate aims for Guilford school board over recognition of racism
1️⃣2️⃣ Louisiana:

—A referendum to cut income tax
(—And 3 other budgetary/tax referenda)
—New Orleans sheriff's race, with longtime dismal jail conditions in backdrop
—New Orleans mayoral race

Note: Early voting is on, but Louisiana's ED is Nov. 13th. Then December for runoffs.
1️⃣3️⃣ Michigan
—Dearborn may elect its 1st Arab-American mayor
—Left eyes progress for Detroit council. Also: Mayoral
—Legislative specials in red seats

1️⃣4️⃣ Georgia:
—Atlanta votes for new mayor. (Likely runoff.) Council drawing lots of eyes too.
—Leg. special in blue seat
1️⃣5️⃣ Minnesota:

—Minneapolis votes for mayor & council (in crowded, heated ranked-choice)...
— ... and on creating "Dept of Public Safety"
—... and on enabling rent control in the future
—St Paul votes on instituting rent control [this is a stronger measure than in Minneapolis]
1️⃣6️⃣, 1️⃣7️⃣ ,1️⃣8️⃣: Kentucky, Mississippi, & Rhode Island.

This is the land of legislative specials that are probably safe holds but may nevertheless be worth keeping an eye on.
—3 GOP-held seats in KY
—3 Dem-held seats in MS
—1 Dem-held seat in RI
1️⃣9️⃣ Washington
—Seattle's mayoral & council races have big ideological contrasts
—Just as Seattle's city attorney (=lower-level prosecutor) race
—King County executive is challenged from left
—Here too, watch school board elections
—In *December*: recall vote on Kshama Sawant
2️⃣0️⃣ Ohio
—Cleveland referendum meant to increase police oversight
—Cleveland's mayoral race has drawn attn & progressive involvement
—Cincinnati also votes for mayor (2 Dems too)

2️⃣1️⃣ Oregon
—Recall effort vs school board member who wanted to remove BLM/LGBTQ signs from schools
2️⃣2️⃣ Massachusetts:

—Big progressive push around Boston's mayoral race
—Boston referendum for a participatory budgeting process
— ... & on electing a school board
—Left has organized around council races in Cambridge, Somerville
—GOP defending a rare legislative seat in special

I'm frustrated I forgot key elections along the way:
—Austin's conservative push to expand policing
—Interesting legislative specials in ME & PA
—School board battle in Iowa's Polk

Now back to: 2️⃣3️⃣ Kansas:
—Mayoral races in Overland Park, Kansas City, Topeka
2️⃣4️⃣ New Jersey:

—Dems seek to keep the trifecta they gained in 2017. That means:
—Dem governor seeks re-election
—Assembly & Senate are on ballot (Dems very favored)
—Key person involved in Bridgegate seeks comeback
—Watch Bergen County's sheriff race
2️⃣5️⃣ New York:

—Referenda on voting, e.g. same-day reg
—Walton vs Brown in Buffalo
—Important Erie County sheriff
—Adams & Bragg now favored in NYC. Watch council
—Fossella comeback
—Leg specials
—Nassau & Suffolk heated for DA & county gov
—Syracuse, Broome, other heated races
2️⃣6️⃣ Utah
—As towns vote, watch 1st broad use of ranked-choice

2️⃣7️⃣ North Carolina
—Durham will have a new mayor & council
—Chapel Hill's seeks new term
Charlotte meant to elect mayor, but delayed to 2022

2️⃣8️⃣ Wisconsin
—School board members face recalls over "CRT," diversity

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More from @Taniel

29 Oct
The three scholars that the state of Florida is forbidding to testify on the effects of the state's new voting restrictions are: Dan Smith (@electionsmith), Michael McDonald (@ElectProject), and Sharon Wright Austin.
“The university does not exist to protect the governor."

Read 5 tweets
27 Oct
Local elections can make a huge difference.

Including prosecutorial elections

Here's one thread about why. It's about New Orleans.
FIrst, let's start with the record of the prosecutor whose term ended last year.
Read 12 tweets
25 Oct
There’s no reason to either overanalyze what Virginia means for the nation in 2022 or 2032 (or to diminish its stakes) — when there’s so much to say about why next week’s elections matter for Virginia, & even if you’re not there for voting rights & crim justice & so much else.
If you care about rights restoration: the future of Virginia’s policy (established by McAuliffe in his first term) of enabling people with felony convictions to regain the right to vote hangs in the balance. As does the multi-year process to amend the constitution over this.
If you care about mass incarceration: VA is notably desolate when it comes to giving people a chance at release after decades in prison, and changing that has been a goal for advocates there after some recent change (esp. for youth). It’s also something GOP wants to preserve.
Read 5 tweets
17 Oct
The latest in Zemmour's "we need a strongman" campaign: He's campaigning on needing a "strong state" that "take away powers" from "counter-power institutions... namely the courts, the media, & minorities."

Many layers of unadultered far-right discourse:
Most telling sign of who Zemmour is, & far-right legacy he appeals to: In new rally, he shrugged away the violence of October 17, 1961, the massacre & mass drowning of Algerian protesters by French police in Paris. France has long suppressed that history, until recently.
Obvious parallel to what US far-right (& many nationalist movements) try to gain steam off of: reject recognition & discussion of a history of violence as somehow an insult to national pride & as a leftist project (he described it as 'an antiracist, LGBT, islamoleftist ideology")
Read 4 tweets
8 Oct
oof, so much cringe nytimes.com/2021/10/07/opi…
You can give the replies the benefit of the doubt (it may be weird to ask how people feels about voting rights writ large since I suppose no one tends to just be explicitly against those, and I guess the legislation has a lot of components) until you get to that last sentence
I'd like to note a lot of the conversation is in that vein, lest it look that my selection was harsh. nytimes.com/2021/10/07/opi…
Read 4 tweets
2 Oct
"Democrats have a large lead in the NJ state Senate (25-15), but I'm struck by how much room they have to grow -- with elections looming in a month.

A third of the districts held by the GOP (5!) were carried by Biden last fall, some of them by very large margins.
*And:* in 3 of the 5 (SD 2, 16, 21), the incumbent GOPer won't be on ballot. (Other 2 are SD25 & 39.)

A big shot for Dems to grow their majority here. (Note Dems defend one Trump-district, SD3.)

As always, HUGE thanks to @DKElections for their mat & open data for district info.
More, via @DKElections: Clinton won 4 of those seats (2, 16, 21, 25), incl. all 3 that are now open. Obama carried two (2/16: both now open) in 2012.

So... are SD2 & SD16 best shots for gains for Dems (in country?!) come November? On shoulders of Vincent Mazzeo & Andrew Zwicker.
Read 4 tweets

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