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17 Oct, 4 tweets, 2 min read
The latest in Zemmour's "we need a strongman" campaign: He's campaigning on needing a "strong state" that "take away powers" from "counter-power institutions... namely the courts, the media, & minorities."

Many layers of unadultered far-right discourse:
lemonde.fr/politique/arti…
Most telling sign of who Zemmour is, & far-right legacy he appeals to: In new rally, he shrugged away the violence of October 17, 1961, the massacre & mass drowning of Algerian protesters by French police in Paris. France has long suppressed that history, until recently.
Obvious parallel to what US far-right (& many nationalist movements) try to gain steam off of: reject recognition & discussion of a history of violence as somehow an insult to national pride & as a leftist project (he described it as 'an antiracist, LGBT, islamoleftist ideology")
Unfortunately, fault lines would be clearer if Macron's gov wasn't trying to flirt with these same themes. His security minister told a Le Pen she was "too soft." And another minister called for a Zemmour-ian investigation into "islamoleftism" in faculty:

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More from @Taniel

Taniel Profile picture
8 Oct
oof, so much cringe nytimes.com/2021/10/07/opi…
You can give the replies the benefit of the doubt (it may be weird to ask how people feels about voting rights writ large since I suppose no one tends to just be explicitly against those, and I guess the legislation has a lot of components) until you get to that last sentence
I'd like to note a lot of the conversation is in that vein, lest it look that my selection was harsh. nytimes.com/2021/10/07/opi…
Read 4 tweets
Taniel Profile picture
2 Oct
"Democrats have a large lead in the NJ state Senate (25-15), but I'm struck by how much room they have to grow -- with elections looming in a month.

A third of the districts held by the GOP (5!) were carried by Biden last fall, some of them by very large margins.
*And:* in 3 of the 5 (SD 2, 16, 21), the incumbent GOPer won't be on ballot. (Other 2 are SD25 & 39.)

A big shot for Dems to grow their majority here. (Note Dems defend one Trump-district, SD3.)

As always, HUGE thanks to @DKElections for their mat & open data for district info.
More, via @DKElections: Clinton won 4 of those seats (2, 16, 21, 25), incl. all 3 that are now open. Obama carried two (2/16: both now open) in 2012.

So... are SD2 & SD16 best shots for gains for Dems (in country?!) come November? On shoulders of Vincent Mazzeo & Andrew Zwicker.
Read 4 tweets
Taniel Profile picture
29 Sep
The map that CO's redistricting commission is on the brink of adopting is almost identical to the one shared last week that gave Dems such angst bc it could bring about a 4-4 map in a blue state, & in fact amends it to make it a *tiny* bit redder. #s here: coleg.app.box.com/s/8c53czin5evs…
If adopted, thew map would set up a very competitive battle over a new CD8: went for Trump in 2016 & very narrowly for Dems in the 2018 Gov race & 2020 Senate race. (Worth noting there's another Dem seat that, while consistently Dem, is close to the bubble.)
Folks, a major twist. The map I was discussing above got 7 votes out of 12 in the redistricting commission's 2nd & 3rd rounds of voting. One vote from the needed 8.

But now, on *4th* round, it suddenly went down to 5 votes! Another got 6. And it's FAR more favorable to Dems.
Read 9 tweets
Taniel Profile picture
28 Sep
This past weekend was a wild day in European politics.

Gay marriage was legalized, abortion was legalized, the center-left will likely return to power in a major country, there was a housing referendum that grabbed headlines worldwide, ... and there's more.

Let's explore. ↓
1️⃣ GERMANY: Center-left is likely to lead Germany for the first time since 1998-2005.

The SPD (social-dems) bested the CDU (conservative) for the first time since 2002. CDU got the worst result of their history. And the Greens got their best result ever in a national election.
But: difficult negotiations are ahead to form a majority coaition. Likeliest scenario is that SPD & Greens ally with each other *&* with center-right FDP. (A big drop for the Linke [Left] made an all-left alliance mathematically impossible.) The far-right receded a bit too.
Read 11 tweets
Taniel Profile picture
26 Sep
Polls have closed in Germany. And the 2 exit polls aired by German media project a far tighter situation than final month’s polls.

One has SPD & CDU tied at 25%; other, SPD up 26/24.

Will be a historically low result for CDU regardless — but they have a path to hold to power.
At 25%, CDU is hovering about 10-15 % points below where it was in the past 4 elections (when twas led by Merkel).

SPD may be higher than it's been since 2005.

15% would be highest Greens have ever received in a national election. They're highly likely to be in next government.
Both German exit polls project for now that the AFD, Germany's far-right party, has gone *down* since the last elections (when it got a historic 12.6%). But also that it'll remain at a very high level (10-11%).
Read 16 tweets
Taniel Profile picture
20 Sep
🚨 Big stuff in Oregon.

Dems are pulling plug on a power-sharing arrangement on redistricting, and would then likely quickly pass a congressional map enshrining a 5-1 delegation.
This comes a couple of hours after the state Senate (which did not have such an arrangement) passed such a map.
Republicans may now break quorum in response (as they have in past years on other matters, which precipitated the crisis that led to the power sharing in the first place), which could paralyze the legislature and its map:
Read 4 tweets

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