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Taniel Profile picture
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27 Oct, 12 tweets, 3 min read
Local elections can make a huge difference.

Including prosecutorial elections

Here's one thread about why. It's about New Orleans.
FIrst, let's start with the record of the prosecutor whose term ended last year.
theappeal.org/politicalrepor…
December 2020:
January 2021:

February 2021 sets the stage with office hires.

See:
&
.
also February 2021:

February 2021, once more:

March 2021:

also March 2021:

August 2021:

October 2021:
And jumping to this week:

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More from @Taniel

Taniel Profile picture
25 Oct
There’s no reason to either overanalyze what Virginia means for the nation in 2022 or 2032 (or to diminish its stakes) — when there’s so much to say about why next week’s elections matter for Virginia, & even if you’re not there for voting rights & crim justice & so much else.
If you care about rights restoration: the future of Virginia’s policy (established by McAuliffe in his first term) of enabling people with felony convictions to regain the right to vote hangs in the balance. As does the multi-year process to amend the constitution over this.
If you care about mass incarceration: VA is notably desolate when it comes to giving people a chance at release after decades in prison, and changing that has been a goal for advocates there after some recent change (esp. for youth). It’s also something GOP wants to preserve.
Read 5 tweets
Taniel Profile picture
17 Oct
The latest in Zemmour's "we need a strongman" campaign: He's campaigning on needing a "strong state" that "take away powers" from "counter-power institutions... namely the courts, the media, & minorities."

Many layers of unadultered far-right discourse:
lemonde.fr/politique/arti…
Most telling sign of who Zemmour is, & far-right legacy he appeals to: In new rally, he shrugged away the violence of October 17, 1961, the massacre & mass drowning of Algerian protesters by French police in Paris. France has long suppressed that history, until recently.
Obvious parallel to what US far-right (& many nationalist movements) try to gain steam off of: reject recognition & discussion of a history of violence as somehow an insult to national pride & as a leftist project (he described it as 'an antiracist, LGBT, islamoleftist ideology")
Read 4 tweets
Taniel Profile picture
8 Oct
oof, so much cringe nytimes.com/2021/10/07/opi…
You can give the replies the benefit of the doubt (it may be weird to ask how people feels about voting rights writ large since I suppose no one tends to just be explicitly against those, and I guess the legislation has a lot of components) until you get to that last sentence
I'd like to note a lot of the conversation is in that vein, lest it look that my selection was harsh. nytimes.com/2021/10/07/opi…
Read 4 tweets
Taniel Profile picture
2 Oct
"Democrats have a large lead in the NJ state Senate (25-15), but I'm struck by how much room they have to grow -- with elections looming in a month.

A third of the districts held by the GOP (5!) were carried by Biden last fall, some of them by very large margins.
*And:* in 3 of the 5 (SD 2, 16, 21), the incumbent GOPer won't be on ballot. (Other 2 are SD25 & 39.)

A big shot for Dems to grow their majority here. (Note Dems defend one Trump-district, SD3.)

As always, HUGE thanks to @DKElections for their mat & open data for district info.
More, via @DKElections: Clinton won 4 of those seats (2, 16, 21, 25), incl. all 3 that are now open. Obama carried two (2/16: both now open) in 2012.

So... are SD2 & SD16 best shots for gains for Dems (in country?!) come November? On shoulders of Vincent Mazzeo & Andrew Zwicker.
Read 4 tweets
Taniel Profile picture
29 Sep
The map that CO's redistricting commission is on the brink of adopting is almost identical to the one shared last week that gave Dems such angst bc it could bring about a 4-4 map in a blue state, & in fact amends it to make it a *tiny* bit redder. #s here: coleg.app.box.com/s/8c53czin5evs…
If adopted, thew map would set up a very competitive battle over a new CD8: went for Trump in 2016 & very narrowly for Dems in the 2018 Gov race & 2020 Senate race. (Worth noting there's another Dem seat that, while consistently Dem, is close to the bubble.)
Folks, a major twist. The map I was discussing above got 7 votes out of 12 in the redistricting commission's 2nd & 3rd rounds of voting. One vote from the needed 8.

But now, on *4th* round, it suddenly went down to 5 votes! Another got 6. And it's FAR more favorable to Dems.
Read 9 tweets
Taniel Profile picture
28 Sep
This past weekend was a wild day in European politics.

Gay marriage was legalized, abortion was legalized, the center-left will likely return to power in a major country, there was a housing referendum that grabbed headlines worldwide, ... and there's more.

Let's explore. ↓
1️⃣ GERMANY: Center-left is likely to lead Germany for the first time since 1998-2005.

The SPD (social-dems) bested the CDU (conservative) for the first time since 2002. CDU got the worst result of their history. And the Greens got their best result ever in a national election.
But: difficult negotiations are ahead to form a majority coaition. Likeliest scenario is that SPD & Greens ally with each other *&* with center-right FDP. (A big drop for the Linke [Left] made an all-left alliance mathematically impossible.) The far-right receded a bit too.
Read 11 tweets

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