6/There were no cases of myocarditis in the clinical trial.
But to be fair, there may not have been enough children enrolled to detect a case of myocarditis since it is so rare.
So how should we think about that?
7/The risk of myocarditis varies. But to date, there have been 877 reported cases of vaccine-induced myocarditis among 12-29 year olds from 100,000,000+ vaccinated.
None of those cases resulted in death, though most resulted in hospitalization. The vast majority recovered.
8/Right now, the risk of myocarditis after a #COVID19
vaccine ranges from 9-11 cases/100K vaccinated males.
But here is the question: how does that risk compare with the risk of myocarditis from #COVID19?
Why do I ask? Because COVID itself can cause myocarditis.
9/Answer: the risk of myocarditis is MUCH lower from a vaccine than from COVID.
The risk of myocarditis from #COVID19 is around 150/100K patients w/COVID.
So the risk of myocarditis is ~15X *lower* from the #vaccine than from COVID itself.
10/Let me put this differently: if myocarditis were the *ONLY* thing you cared about when it comes to your child's health, then getting vaccinated is preferable because the risk of getting myocarditis is higher after COVID than after the vaccine.
11/Now I know what you're saying: what about the unknown, long-term side effects?
Fortunately, when it comes to vaccines, side effects materialize within the first weeks/months after administration.
12/Every single pediatrician, family doctor, and nurse practitioner I have spoken with says that they will vaccinate their own children as soon as the #vaccine is available.
These are the professionals entrusted to care for children, so why not trust them on this?
13/One final and important note: no one will vaccinate your child without your express consent to do so.
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1/It's good being back on Twitter. Since being back, I've been thinking about how/why misinformation proliferates so widely on social media like Twitter.
To adapt an old canard, Twitter is a medium because it is neither rare nor well done.
2/These qualities are simultaneously features and bugs. Twitter is ubiquitous and open to everyone, which makes it ideal for disseminating information. But Twitter is also ubiquitous and open to everyone, which makes it ideal for spreading misinformation.
3/The misinformation that concerns me is that which is driven by what I will call "gadflies."
These are individuals who do a bit of "research" on YouTube, or perhaps even via a pre-print, and then find a quote that accords with their pre-conceived notion (confirmation bias).
1/It's time to take stock of where we are w/#COVID19 in Maine from an epidemiological perspective.
Let's start with the big picture. The PCR positivity rate is now 5.3%. One incubation period ago, it was at 4.5%.
2/A portion of that increase is attributable to less PCR testing.
Right now, the current daily PCR testing volume stands at 471/100K people. That's 13% lower than one incubation period ago, leading to a higher positivity rate.
3/Hospitalizations are thankfully lower, but still high. Right now, 166 people are in the hospital in #Maine w/#COVID19. 60 of them are in the ICU and 31 are on ventilators.
Two weeks ago, there were 211 people hospitalized, with 67 in the ICU, though 27 on a ventilator.
1/It's important to consider the full picture when interpreting data on things like the % of people fully vaccinated who are hospitalized with #COVID19, or the fact that 74% of the cases in the P-town outbreak were fully vaccinated.
2/I have seen folks express concern upon learning, for example, that 45% of people hospitalized w/COVID19 are vaccinated.
"But I thought the vaccine keeps you out of the hospital? Is this evidence that vaccines aren't working?" No, it is not.
I'll walk through why here.
3/First, some basic assumptions. There are two Worlds, each with 1M people. And we'll consider the same infectious disease affecting each World, with the parameters below.
There is also a vaccine, with the effectiveness parameters noted below. These could all be changed.
2/"After the governor’s executive order, COVID-19 incidence decreased (mean decrease of 0.08 cases per 100,000 per day; net decrease of 6%) among counties with a mask mandate but continued to increase (mean increase of 0.11 cases per 100,000 per day; net increase of 100%)..."
3/"...among counties without a mask mandate (nonmandated counties)."