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2 Nov, 5 tweets, 4 min read
1/ NL hospital admission data aggregation on the young cohorts.

1) There is only 1 ICU admission in the 0-14 year bin. (in Q4 is not, shown here). Amazing healthy.

2) We do see a significant increase in numbers in 2021, in particular in Q2 / Q3. When was start of💉😉😌?
2/ The dominating AE should be myocarditis in males.

In NL we have 1.6M males in the 15-29 male group.
With >50% vaccinated and assuming myocarditis rates of e.g. 1:10000 to 1:2000 we expect 80 to 400 cases, or 40 to 200 in Q2 and Q3.
3/ Is it possible to get data on admission root cause statistics from @rivm? In particular the amount of heart related issues in 15-29 old males by quater for 2021?

@mr_Smith_Econ
@dimgrr
@waukema
@PvanHouwelingen
@hugodejonge
@nos
@mauricedehond
@KoenSwinkels
@Lareb_NL
4/ Adding more visible age labels for easier reading.

2021 orange
2020 bleu

(Q4 hidden as not available for 2021).
5/ Another view of the same and percent increase from 2020-->2021.

a) Note that 2020 Q4 is excluded (as not available for 2021 obviously) before aggregating in order to compare.
b) The increase in 0-14 years: Why? Is this RSV?

#UMCWOB

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More from @orwell2022

Orwell2024 Profile picture
1 Nov
1/ Expected rate of vaccinated in ICU.

(Correcting here the spotted mistake in the explanation part.)

Here is the formula explained. It depends on vaccination rate and vaccine efficiency.

The special case for 90% vaccinated is shown on the right as function of VE-ICU.
2/ For Austria and NL where 90% of the at risk group is vaccinated we expect 30%-50% of the ICU patients to be vaccinated if assuming a VE-ICU of ~90%.
3/ Let's show the results of the formula in 2D as function of

x) vaccination level
y) VE agains ICU

The resulting rate (calculation on right) of vaccinated in ICU is shown in the cell.

It can be used as look-up table to estimate (roughly) the VE.
Read 11 tweets
Orwell2024 Profile picture
1 Nov
1/ Expected vaccinated rate in ICU: It looks like I need to add explanations.

Here is the formula explained. It depends on vaccination rate and vaccine efficiency. 2 parameters. Special case for 90% vaccianted is shown in the graph as function of VE.
2/ So what do we expect for Austria where 90% of the risk group ending in ICU is vaccinated. This here. So if the VE agains ICU is around 90%, then we expect 40%-50% of the hispitalized patiend to be vaccinated. This is normal, and not a sign of panic/waning efficiency.
3/ Let's show the results of the formula as function of the x) vaccination rate and y) VE agains ICU now.

The resulting rate (calculation on right) of vaccinated in ICU is shown in the cell.

It can be used as look-up table for other countries. Also to estimate (roughly) the VE
Read 6 tweets
Orwell2024 Profile picture
31 Oct
Scheint derzeit zu korrelieren. Im Sommer war das nicht so. Man sollte jedoch besser die Impfquote ab 60 Jahren zeigen. Die ist in NL bei 90%. Generell muss man das nach Alter machen. Sonst droht der wie gewohnt der Simpson's. Image
Wenn wir ICU Daten nach Impfstatus und alter hätten, könnten wir die Länder auf meiner Tabelle eintragen. Die zeigt die erwartete relative ICU Quote geimpft je nach Impfquote und VE_ICU. Image
In Österreich herrscht Panik (wegen mathematischer Inkompetenz). 30%-50% Geimpfte ist jedoch genau der Erwartungswert bei einer Impfquote von 90% und einen Schutz von 90%. Die Kurve rechts zeigt diesen Fall. Es ist die 90% geimpfte Spalte in der 2D Darstellung oben. ImageImage
Read 4 tweets
Orwell2024 Profile picture
27 Oct
1/ NL hospital and ICU admissions

Find here a vizualisation of the NL data. This are all admission.

We don't have this infromation available for #Covid by age nor for C19 vaccination status by age.
@rivm @hugodejonge Please publish this data.
@rivm @hugodejonge 2/ Let's zoom in on the latest months. The numbers in the age group < 30 years is vanish small. But this is the so called unvaccinated "at risk" group. It's already obvious from this that the statement from Hugo:

"the unvaccinated are flooding the hospitals"

is impossible!
3/ Let's further zoom in on ICU:

People below 30 (so the dominating unvaccinated group) are NOT in ICUs.

The vast majority (80%) is above age 50. But this group is almost fully (~90%) vaccinated.

There is some magic going on if 90% of patient are unvaccinated.
Read 7 tweets
Orwell2024 Profile picture
31 Jul
1/ This is a brilliant talk. I appreciated it, in particular being both a computational physicist and a HW veteran.

The bad habits is SW were already spreading back in 2001.

2/ I’m wondering if there are still people around today who would be able to do something like E04DGF and CVode. I doubt that anything has improved at those levels. Is E04DGF still the fastest?
3/ The problem is also, that SW will come and bite the semiconductors, so the HW itself. After having done some work with Cadence I can only say: what a mess. It’s a patch and collection of pieces that they have procured over time. But nothing is consistent across modules.
Read 10 tweets
Orwell2024 Profile picture
30 Jul
Das Ende ist nahe wenn es selbst bei der Stammtisch Runde Lanz angekommen ist.
Die Folge mit Mastermind Prof. Kremsner war genial. Ich habe mich zu tode gelacht. Er spielte mit Lanz wie eine Katze mit der Maus. Minimale Antworten. Man konnte so richtig sehen wie es im Gehirn von Lanz gearbeitet hat. 😂 Ab Minute 55

zdf.de/gesellschaft/m…
Lanz: Was war das Problem mit Curevac?
K: Die Dosis.
L: Was war denn das Problem.
K: Zu niedrig.
L: Ja aber dann kann man das einfach höher machen.
K: Wie ich gesagt habe bei 12 µg war bei Phase eins das Limit wegen Nebenwirkungen.
L: Und Dosis von bei den anderen? 😂👏
Read 7 tweets

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