Share this page!

Lakshya Jain Profile picture
Twitter logo
2 Nov, 3 tweets, 1 min read
To win #VAGov, Glenn Youngkin will need to flip a lot of Biden voters -- and, most likely, a lot of college-educated white Biden voters.

Is he getting that? I don't think so, but I could be wrong. But this isn't going to be a race that Democrats lose on turnout.
This is all the early vote tells us, and this is the only EV analysis I'll do. I don't think rain matters, I don't think you can do precinct regressions on EV turnout in Arlington and have that mean much right now, and I do not think we'll get much more info than this before 7 PM
This is basically the best way to sum up EV analysis. It doesn't mean a whole ton except practically ruling out a lot of fringe scenarios that we were already somewhat skeptical of (like the Fox poll). Just wait till 7 PM and we'll know way more.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Lakshya Jain

Lakshya Jain Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @lxeagle17

Lakshya Jain Profile picture
3 Nov
Looks like @Thorongil16 and I will end up on the wrong side of #VAGov predictions.

We took a shot, tried to be transparent about what we did, and ended up giving Youngkin a 33% chance of victory. Those things happen 1/3 of the time. Forecasting and modeling is hard.
Some success for the model: as @Thorongil16 said, we did appear to catch the fact that there would be significantly more college-educated voters in this electorate than in 2020, and modeled the electorate decently well. Where we missed was in margins among demographics.
I don't feel bad for saying polls like Fox were bad. The electorates illustrated by those never materialized. We always said Youngkin's path to victory would consist of flipping a ton of Biden voters, including white suburbanites. And that's what he managed to do.
Read 8 tweets
Lakshya Jain Profile picture
2 Nov
🚨FINAL #VAGov FORECAST🚨

At the end of a long campaign, here's where the model made by me and @Thorongil16 stands. The race is rated as Lean Democratic, with a forecasted margin of D+3.6 and a win probability of 67%. An interactive map is over at striderforecasts.com.
The consensus on this race is all over the place, and we've seen polls in the last week ranging from D+3 to R+8. Absolutely nobody can agree on what an electorate looks like or who's voting. What we all can agree on is that Democrats have a large early vote (EV) lead...
But even then, nobody knows exactly how big, and the margin here matters. We know via L2 that the EV electorate is roughly 2:1 Biden, but the crossover vote matters here. If it knocks EV down to D+19, Youngkin's probably favored. D+27 and it's likely McAuliffe's race to lose.
Read 9 tweets
Lakshya Jain Profile picture
1 Nov
On the day before the race, the #VAGov forecast from @Thorongil16 and me remains Lean Democratic, with a D+3.5 margin forecasted and a 67% win probability. An interactive map with county margins is over at striderforecasts.com.

Both have a chance, but I'd rather be McAuliffe.
Youngkin appears to have momentum, and this was a key reason cited by @JMilesColeman and @kkondik in their Lean R call. It's a respectable one you can make a good argument for. I'd disagree primarily for a few reasons...
(1) the overall crosstab splits don't show as many danger signs for Democrats as the toplines do
(2) the polling average has been flooded by a host of pro-GOP firms as of late
(3) there *appears* to be significant herding and nonresponse impacting the results too
Read 8 tweets
Lakshya Jain Profile picture
30 Oct
A quick check on where the #VAGov model made by @Thorongil16 and I stands at the moment -- margins available at striderforecasts.com.

Democrats are still forecasted to win by a touch over 3.5. Race remains Lean Democratic with a 68% win probability, in our eyes.
Some definite late movement in our model to Youngkin, but in our eyes, this is not enough.

Firstly, Virginia is a highly educated Biden +10 state. We begin with a heavier McAuliffe prior due to turnout dynamics that, based on education and propensities, would be more Dem-leaning
I do think some polls have drifted towards heavily R samples; Fox poll yesterday was an example, and based on some of the margins, I think the Echelon poll oversamples Rs. Hard to tell, but I do not think there has been this much movement re: turnout dynamics in the 2 weeks
Read 7 tweets
Lakshya Jain Profile picture
29 Oct
I can't find crosstabs for this, but on the surface, this is probably not what you want to see if you're Terry McAuliffe. A continuation of the "late movement" theme; whether that's an artifact of LV screens being wonky is unclear, but it goes in the model (D+4.1 now).
pre-emptively to those saying McAuliffe's margin has plunged in our model: in the last 3 days, we've added in the Fox, Washington Post, and Echelon polls. Doesn't take a genius to figure out that it'll change the forecast!
Something in this poll is that enthusiasm is at comparable levels across party lines, so this would indicate Youngkin is pulling a *lot* of Biden voters over to his side. Whether that's a reasonable estimate or not, I don't know, but that's his actual path to victory.
Read 5 tweets
Lakshya Jain Profile picture
29 Oct
A pretty reasonable poll and electorate screen that tells us more of what we knew: a close race, where more Biden->Youngkin crossover is happening rather than McAuliffe/Trump. Anyways, something interesting is how downballot races like the AG/LG appears to be 3-4 points more Dem.
Youngkin outperforming Trump by 15 or so with noncollege whites would be interesting. I think his path to victory is going to involve some gains with noncollege whites and more gains with college whites, especially if given this level of ticket splitting, but let’s see.
Yeah it’s only a 43% educated electorate but also, if you want to play that game, dragging it up to 50% or so would only give you like a D+3 result at best, so…still a very close race, once again.
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Like this author's thread?

Get emails when @lxeagle17 has new unrolls!

Check out other threads from @lxeagle17!

Read all threads by @lxeagle17

:(