I am trying hard not to break my never-tweet-while-votes-are-still-being-counted rule but people, these Allegheny County numbers are... something else.
Like, in 2017 Dem PA Supreme Court nominee Dwayne Woodruff carried a net 55,000 vote advantage out of Allegheny County. Today Dem Supreme Court nominee Maria McLaughlin is already carrying a 70,000 net vote advantage out of Allegheny County, and 1/4 of precincts are yet to report
& in the face of incredibly contentious schoolboard politics—& some ugly campaign tactics—Dem candidates who are going to bring unprecedented racial/ethnic diversity are winning schoolboard races in northern & southern suburbs alike. Not winning all of them: but in *tough* places
It's also striking that while over the last decade statewide judges up for retention in PA have all been retained w/70-75% of the vote, this year they are running ~62% in counties as different as Allegheny (Biden+2) & Somerset (Trump+55). Some throw-the-bums-out vibes out there?
Anyway in some sense no surprises here. PA since Nov 2020 has looked like a fiercely divided+narrowly balanced state, & once the Philly collar counties' full votes come in I expect that will be confirmed by today's statewide races. The suburbs are just as split, on a tiny scale
So eg the once-firmly-Republican upscale suburbs of Allegheny County where Dems made unprecedented inroads in 2017 & 2019 saw not clear backlash but rather high turnout on all sides grinding change to a halt: w/split results on many boro councils & school boards
Meanwhile the steady march downballot of national political realignment continued apace in older & more rural regions of PA. Up until today's election, Trump+55 Somerset county had longtime incumbent Dem women as Treasurer and Prothonotary. That's no more.
There's just no question that the image of Democratic Party reaching a great many voters today is of radical socialists who embrace violent allies, while an incompetent president steers to econ disaster. Ask the couple who interrogated me at length about this at the polls today😶
More or less despite this, local Dems have (barely) prevailed in many races they could have lost. how? by nominating hyperqualified, charismatic, tireless, locally-rooted candidates, & supporting them with full-on shoe leather campaigns buoyed by now-experienced volunteer leaders
👇add Bethel Park to the list of middle-ring Allegheny County suburbs where the sum total results of the backlash [anti-mask; anti-CRT; anti etc etc] and the backlash-against-the-backlash were narrow Dem flips rather than losses
Meanwhile across the state in the Lehigh Valley, in Lehigh & Northampton incumbent Dem county execs (narrowly) held on, while a bunch of hard-fought county judicial race and suburban schoolboard races went narrowly against Dems rather than narrowly for them
I'll close w/a reminder that unless writing about politics literally pays your bills, using yesterday's election results to prognosticate about future national results, or to play "which Dem coalition members can I blame for Team Dem not #winning?" is a *choice*. Choose not to!
You can instead look around & ask: what are the political possibilities of the diff units I live within: town, schools, county, state rep? Given the baseline of where we are (not where I wish we were), what are feasible next goals? And who do I need to connect & work with to try?
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An indicator of how the intensity of schoolboard conflicts ramped up this summer/fall: I know several cases PA of center/left teams running write-in campaigns now, in districts where back in Feb local grassroots weren't organized/outraged enough to get recruits on primary ballot
Yet another suburban school board write-in campaign👇 School boards are really the races to watch nationwide this Nov, to see whether it's the RW backlash, or the backlash-against-the-backlash that's capturing the engaged-enough-to-vote suburban center...
Wow, must read👇account from small town SCPA. So much strategic insight on display— frankly, so much more in touch with real people & how they are swayed than anything on offer from any side of the Great Dem Pundit Messaging Wars #onhere in recent weeks,! organizingupgrade.com/not-in-our-tow…
This👇 by @ed_kilgore is both worth reading in itself, & mentions a precedent that has been on my mind, & that I've come think is important, even crucial.
We should start to recognize the anti-CRT push as the Swiftboating of youth-led antiracism. [a🧵] nymag.com/intelligencer/…
The key dynamic in the original swiftboat smear was it took something that Dems had (appropriately!) anticipated as an authentic source of strength—their candidate's record of military service in Vietnam—& made it so toxic that any effort to draw strength from it was neutralized
.@holden has been writing brilliantly re the importance of a "field of evidence" for participatory propaganda, & the insight fits more broadly. Where is the field of provocations that get spun up as "CRT" in local schoolboard after schoolboard coming from? hapgood.us/2021/06/12/par…
Philly Dem ward comttee internal vote drama (which is very much my jam) has me noticing that (a few) ward cttees in Philly have twitter accounts. AFAIK none in the city of Pittsburgh do. Which is striking as much for what it says about twitter as for what it says about Dem cttees
You might think that a platform that skews heavily Democratic & politically engaged would be a natural fit for entrepreneurial local Democratic organizations seeking to grow. But that hasn't generally been the case: and I'm not actually saying it should be. In part it's a good
reminder of just what a non-representative slice *even of very highly engaged Democrats* twitter captures: political twitter is decades younger, way more highly formally educated, & less female than the folks who make up the Democratic action-taking base even in big fancy cities
Important new research about postcards to voters, with evidence they can backfire & *reduce* turnout among recipients. I hope national groups that have used postcards as a central part of their volunteer (& donor) recruitment read this & take it seriously
The authors suggest the postcards' focus on a down ballot race may have "distracted" recipients, causing them to ignore other sources of info about more important congressional races also on that (2018) ballot for which they otherwise would have showed up to vote.
Hmm... maybe?
I'm more inclined to see these results as potentially in line w/fact that feeling like you "don't know enough" is one reason people choose not to vote/get involved.A postcard pitch can remind me how much I don't know, & who shd I trust, & where even start? prri.org/research/ameri…
It worries me that some otherwise smart & well-informed observers seem to believe that a meaningful portion of the actors who made the slogan/goal Defund the Police prominent, live within the progressive grant funding universe. I think that’s wrong in 2 different ways. [quick 🧵]
Who is the assumed “everyone involved” here? I think this may be a case where some of the Twitter Isn’t Real Life crowd are forgetting that Twitter Isn’t Real Life.
Out in the real world, who embraced the slogan/goal of defund the police? 1) a very diffuse array of young local activists, many stepping into public/political activism for 1st time, for whom it resonated w/their vision of what a better community would look like; 2) RW amplifiers
A tale of two very different kinds of anti-Peduto voters👇 (As a reminder, PA has closed primaries: Tony Moreno's strength among registered Dems in the precincts where Trump did best is both unsurprising* & 👀)
But Moreno's support in Trump-loving Pgh precincts could only carry him so far, given that nearly 4x as many mayoral votes were cast in precincts where Donald Trump got under 5% of the vote than in precincts where he cracked 50%. [Because A: it's a Dem primary, and B: Pittsburgh]