This seems like a careful analysis, conclusions don’t look good. Lots of questions to be asked.
I fear this will be dismissed because author didn’t write his SQL queries in SCREAMING CAPS case. 🤦
This is Pfizer’s deaths per lot ordered from worst to best (note lots with 0 deaths reported are missing) this is not a good shaped curve
Best case interpretation I can come up with is that there’s some aspect of the manufacturing process that is poorly understood and leads to some batches just being bad. But the strange thing is this is across three manufacturers and two technologies… which seems odd
This is not like the 5% of batches turning pink for no known reason in a certain widely used drug… (in that case it had a benign answer even if it took several years to resolve… while the manufacturer just threw out those 5% of batches as they still held the patent)
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Since July Ireland's cases has been very strange. To hazard a guess, it looks like 6 or 7 small waves in various population groups, with the most recent and biggest triggered by Oct 22nd relaxing for the fully jabbed. An eyeball fit looks like this! Caveats 1/n @MLevitt_NP2013
In this pure speculation, I am assuming that the rate constant is the same for every wave... just because it looks like it was for the first 3... maybe reasonable... may not... 2/n
To fit the "strange" section I therefor need lots of small Gompertz peaks that manage to add together to give something close to the data. This kind of eyeball fitting is an art rather than a science and can be wildly out. 3/n
So Ireland has had 4 waves of PCR positives. The first three waves look wave shaped. The latest looks like it has been artificially constrained somehow... this could be testing capacity, biased sampling, etc. Need not be deliberate either... but doesn't look like the prior waves
If I look at the shapes of the prior waves, the current wave lost its shape around July 22nd... this is the point at which approx 50% of the population were fully stabbed, 58% had two stabs and needed to wait a week while 67% had had their first stab
Now the thing to note about Ireland is that the official government advice is that fully stabbed people do not need to get tested if they are a close contact of a confirmed case, unless they develop symptoms www2.hse.ie/conditions/cov…
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Getting very interesting reports from Israel about the lack of differences between the case rates vs vax status in situations where everyone is tested irrespective of vax status. Would seem to indicate no difference in infection levels, only severity of symptoms.
Of course this would confirm a bias of mine in that I have long suspected that the difference in case rates for vax vs non-vax has just been an artifact of reduced symptoms and perception of superpowers resulting from the use of a term (vaccination) outside of traditional context
But then you hear that just after the analysis was published and the IMoH coincidentally decided to publish a massive retrospective update of the data in question! Anyway I’ll post more when I have more…
Question: why do the Moderna and Pfizer jabs have to be kept at such low temperatures?
My understanding is that these are RNA strands encased in vesicles and at higher temperatures for too long they can escape the vesicles. Injected free RNA gets swept up so would be ineffective
Question: what is the difference between the Moderna and Pfizer jabs?
My understanding is that there may be some subtle differences in the exact RNA sequences, but the main difference is that the Moderna has 3-5x more RNA than the Pfizer
What if the lower concentrations on RNA in the jab means when administered outside of the well controlled trials a lot more of it is ineffective due to poor handling? Would Pfizer be less likely to actually deliver the RNA? Would side-effects be more in Moderna? So many question!