BLOG: The $130 trillion climate finance figure bandied around at #COP26 today is utterly meaningless.
It is “numberism” - an attempt to deploy big numbers as symbols rather than data.
Here’s my attempt to explain what’s really going on (excerpt below): edmundconway.com/the-curse-of-b…
Given there are so many numbers flying around, let’s consider what they actually mean.
First @MarkJCarney’s $130 trillion.
You might, from the noises made at #COP26, have been left with the impression that this is a new fund which will help combat climate change.
It’s not.
It’s not an actual pot of money dedicated to combatting climate change.
Instead it’s more like saying: here’s how incredibly rich these financial firms which have now signed our climate change pledge are.
Might help divert more money to energy transition. But not quite the same.
Nor is it true, as the press release claims, that the $130tr represents a 25-fold increase in commitments to net zero.
First because these aren’t really “commitments” (see above) but net assets figs.
Second because it implies these firms weren’t committed to net zero pre-Carney
This is patent nonsense.
The vast majority of the 450 firms who’ve signed up to the GFANZ pledge (the $130tr thing) had pre-existing net zero plans.
They were already converted. But they’ve now signed up to this collective kitemark.
Great. But not a Damascene conversion.
Consider Blackrock. World’s biggest asset manager.
Arguably they’ve done more than anyone else to galvanise investors to take net zero seriously. Larry Fink advocated this in a Jan 2020 letter.
That was long before GFANZ existed. Yet they only signed up to it quite recently.
My point is not that these kinds of commitments aren’t important. They are. But take with an enormous spoonful of salt the hyperbole about the big numbers and about the scale of achievement around #COP26.
This is a formalisation of where the financial sector was already heading.
Anyway, do read my blog on this for more.
My concern is it’s yet another example of how politicians use numbers to bludgeon us rather than enlighten us.
I’ll do something on the other big number, the $100bn climate finance pledge, later edmundconway.com/the-curse-of-b…
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CLIMATE FINANCE THREAD
Let's start with a simple question: how much is UK donating to poorer countries to help with climate change?
It's an important question given rich countries collective pledges are falling short of goals. That's been one of the big disappointments of #COP26
So: is the UK a leader or laggard when it comes to the $100bn?
Short answer: we give surprisingly little, given our typical leadership role in international development. But getting to the bottom of this involves diving deep inside a climate finance wormhole. Deep breath...
Let's start with the big picture. The idea behind climate finance is that rich countries should help poorer countries both to adapt to higher temperatures and to reduce their reliance on fossil fuels.
The target was to get to $100bn a year by 2020.
We failed.
Might hit it by 2023
As @COP26 gets going in Glasgow, if you’re wondering where the world’s emissions actually come from, here’s a primer I made recently for @SkyNews
Here is one big problem overshadowing the discussions at @COP26.
The targets you’ll mostly hear about this fortnight (NDCs) are based on domestic emissions.
On this front the UK, for instance, has done brilliantly, bringing them down 35% since 1990
But consider how much carbon this country is not just emitting in its borders but is RESPONSIBLE for, via imported goods, and the total is much higher - the dark line here.
This is our FOOTPRINT.
It’s going down, but not as fast. And it’s not due to hit net zero til after 2050
Five things you need to know about today's Budget/SR. Do read my full analysis if/when you have time. It's in this link. But if you're pressed here's the quick 1,2,3,4,5: news.sky.com/story/sunaks-b…
1. The forecast contained some BIG changes: much higher growth. Look how much higher the dark blue line here is than the yellow line (last forecast). Also much higher inflation forecasts. This has a bearing on the fiscal numbers, so...
2. The Chancellor got a MASSIVE windfall thanks to these forecast changes. Higher growth/inflation both push up net tax receipts. Roughy £35bn a year each year, thanks to higher tax receipts (even after the extra cost of benefits/debt interest). That is a LOT of money.
Half an hour left til Budget. Here are a few nuggets to ponder. Let’s start with a claim @RishiSunak may make (tho am hoping he doesn’t): that UK is fastest growing economy in G7.
It’s true if u look at Q2 alone (chart 1).
But look at GDP since covid and UK is mid/low table (ch2)
There’ll be lots of talk about fiscal responsibility and keeping the public finances in order.
All very well but by far the biggest issue in the coming decades is health-related costs which massively outweigh net zero. What does this govt do in the face of that?
After all, this govt has already set aside a large slug of the extra spending review money to health. The real question is what happens to other depts. Do they get real terms Budget increases? Does the era of austerity live on in certain corners of Whitehall?
🧵Few things to look out for in tomo’s Budget/Spending Review.
First, economic growth forecasts
They will almost certainly be raised - but by how much?
As you can see we are already running above the levels forecast in Mar. But when if ever do we get back to trend (dotted line)?
Given it’s a Budget we’ll doubtless have more taxes. But actually most of the action on this front has already happened. The Corp tax and NICs increases represent the biggest combined tax increase since the early 1990s. Seems unlikely anything tomo will change this big picture
It’s already been leaked that @RishiSunak will freeze fuel duty.
One can understand the rationale given soaring petrol costs.
But it’s a v hard one to square with govt’s green pledges. This is the UK’s biggest green tax!
OK that’s enough cross-country comparisons. How is the situation in the UK re cases, admissions and deaths? These charts tell some of that story. In short, the vaccines seem to be doing their job. Back in the late 2020 wave, look how correlated those lines were. Not any more.
I say the “vaccines are working”. But hang on: in that case why are even more vaccinated people dying of COVID now than unvaccinated people?
The answer comes back to CONTEXT, which is all-important here. Consider the latest data from English hospitals… assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
In the most recent period (13 Sept - 10 Oct) there were 2,805 Covid deaths in this database.
2,136 of them were fully-vaccinated.
Only 557 of were unvaccinated people (NB by unvaccinated I mean no doses at all).
Easy to assume from that the vaccines aren’t working. But hold on