Thread by @BrigidLaffan

@DavidGHFrost & @BorisJohnson are gearing up to trigger art 16 NIP. Will cite GFA but this #HMG @FCDOGovUK has struggled to be credible on GFA. Important to understand why. @BrigidLaffan

1. GFA is the product of a large number of politicians, civil servants & civil society within N. Irl, Ireland & GB backed by US political capital & the shelter of joint membership of EU. An agreement worth backing as it was by the people of the island @BrigidLaffan

2. Fast forward to 2016 Brexit ref? Did the Leave campaign take consequences of exit seriously for N. Ireland? No they either ignored the issue or downplayed it-evidence? @BrigidLaffan

3. @BorisJohnson now U.K. PM-border could be managed like congestion tax between Camden & Westminster. I kid you not-flippant then & flippant always. @BrigidLaffan

4. The then Secretary of State for Northern Ireland Theresa Villiers lied. @BrigidLaffan

5. Will be back-dinner time @BrigidLaffan

6. Brexit negs phase 1: @theresa_may in letter of notification pledges in her exit letter that there would be no ‘hard border’ & U.K. did not want to damage Republic of Ireland. Being a good neighbour as you leave is just a mark of a civilised state-nothing special-@BrigidLaffan

7. In relation to island of Ireland that is the test of London intentions & actions. Well @theresa_may & her gov struggled with this & never achieved a reconciliation of her desire to leave SM & CU & no damage to island of Ireland @BrigidLaffan

7. 2017 negs -London really struggled to come up with a viable response to Border in Ireland. Progress on citizens, then money but Ireland? Linked to EU demand for ‘sufficient progress’ on all divorce issues which makes early December 2017 a crunch time.

8. Drama of Joint Report December 2017 which seems to be preoccupying @DavidGHFrost & @Policy_Exchange . @theresa_may had not squared JR with @duponline so JR revised to include 2 paragraphs in relation to border in Ireland. Paragraphs 49+50 @BrigidLaffan

9. Both paragraphs are U.K. commitments: 49 a U.K. commitment to no hard border on a cascading set of propositions & paragraph 50 which pledges no new regulatory barriers between N. Irl & GB. Logic from JR was a soft #Brexit @BrigidLaffan

10. U.K. Gov could not deliver on its commitments in paragraphs 49 & 50 without a soft Brexit so the fudge had to be tested. Through 2018 including Chequers London could not address the border challenge in a way that EU, N. ireland & GB could live with @BrigidLaffan

11. The backstop which kept UK in EU customs Union was May’s best effort to exit without undermining the Union-she could not ratify it despite much clarification from EU27. @BrigidLaffan

12. @BorisJohnson comes to power & days there is a better deal without the backstop-again nothing concrete just words. At high level meetings with EU, apparent that he didn’t not grasp detail & did not know what a CU was. @BorisJohnson

13. Finally on 10th Oct 2019 @BorisJohnson & @LeoVaradkar meeting at Thornton Manor see pathway to a deal & a frontstop replaces backstop. @BorisJohnson & @DavidGHFrost agree to the Withdrawal Agreement & exit happens @BrigidLaffan

14. Throughout the years from 2016 to exit in Jan 2020, London never got on top of border issue-committees on alternative arrangements etc. Were never going to be enough for EU given that U.K. could not point to a single border in the world that worked like this @BrigidLaffan

15. NIP a came into operation & inevitably there were problems as it was a satisfying solution but it offends @DavidGHFrost sovereignty first ideology & strategy @BrigidLaffan

16. What was Irish Gov to do when faced with London strategy? It had no choice but to avoid a land border & to use its membership of EU to avoid being powered by London. There is sufficient documentary evidence of a lack of respect for Irish interests in London @BrigidLaffan

17 When London triggers Art 16 they will do so in pursuit of their version of Brexit-replaying the issue again & again. It will not be about NIP but UK sovereignty & will be a form of organised hypocrisy & the pledge to leave the EU without damaging Ireland will be broken.

@DavidGHFrost argues that NIP undermines GFA because of absence of cross community consent-a canard, consent mechanism in WA does not require it & Brexit did not require it.