Short thread about unfolding British moves @FCDOGovUK @Number10press on Protocol-real dangers ahead. @BrigidLaffan 1. Concerted London attempt across EU & US to argue that NIP undermining GFA. Reasons given are not credible or true to GFA. Consent never needed for international treaties & NIP has consent . Sad to see @FCDOGovUK engaging in propaganda - @PJohnstonFCDO in Dublin @BrigidLaffan

@DavidGHFrost & @BorisJohnson are gearing up to trigger art 16 NIP. Will cite GFA but this #HMG @FCDOGovUK has struggled to be credible on GFA. Important to understand why. @BrigidLaffan 1. GFA is the product of a large number of politicians, civil servants & civil society within N. Irl, Ireland & GB backed by US political capital & the shelter of joint membership of EU. An agreement worth backing as it was by the people of the island @BrigidLaffan

As the below piece from @ChathamHouse is called an ‘expert’ piece then its claims are worth taking a look at @BrigidLaffan

https://twitter.com/anthonyzach/status/1450550700862287874

1. Let me begin where the article ends which is that law as a major tool of European integration may be coming to an end-inaccurate & not backed by evidence. Legislative programme around Green Deal alone major. @BrigidLaffan

Why Number 10 spin on Northern Ireland must be pushed back. David Frost has taken to writing increasingly strident articles on protocol in recent times @FCDOGovUK need to remind number 10 about the history of GFA if they have not lost all historical memory @BrigidLaffan 1. Writing in @FT claims that ‘overriding priority of protecting GFA’- difficult to accept from @BorisJohnson led Gov. 29 Feb 2016 Johnson said re. Border & Brexit ‘I think the situation would be absolutely unchanged’. He was laying then & also lied to @duponline @BrigidLaffan

Border on the island of Ireland was always going to be a central issue in #Brexit fallout not just because of the complexities of SPS & checks but because #Brexit runs counter to the sovereignty practices that emerged from Good Friday Agreement (GFA) @BrigidLaffan 2. GFA evolved from deep re-examination of political structures that evolved from Irish Nationalism & Unionism. Political identities, citizenship & states were refashioned by commitments & institutions of GFA. #Brexit is the opposite. @BrigidLaffan

My ttakeaways from @DavidGHFrost engagement with HoC committee today. 1. #HMG has discovered the Good Friday Agreement. Mentioned more often today than by the Leave campaign or his political master @BorisJohnson during ref. @BrigidLaffan 2. Frost says that U.K. 100% behind GFA. Anything that undermines it a problem for London. Impact of Protocol more unsettling & stronger than ‘we thought’ would happen. Wow when the dogs in the street knew the potential damage of Brexit for island of Ireland.@BrigidLaffan

2 observations following a number of academic & policy exchanges on Brexit this week.1. Almost all UK commentators-academic, official & political now argue that EU needs to re-think its approach to third country neighbours-few of them were making case when UK a MS @BrigidLaffan This call is because reality of 3rd country status begins to bite & however desired by hard Brexiteers, it sits uneasily with almost 50 years of membership. 2. Brexit is seen as the ultimate benchmark for EU by many in U.K., most recently by @GoodwinMJ last night. @BrigidLaffan

Lots of discussion in my timeline on the imbalanced nature of N.Irl Protocol-a nationalist solution & a weakness of British statecraft according to @TomMcTague & a miscalculation re. protection of single market @SirSocks @BrigidLaffan 1. No appreciation of the consequences of U.K. decision to leave EU for island of Ireland. Not a live issue in the ref campaign & UK negotiators did not fully grasp the complexity of issues until well after ref. @BrigidLaffan

This is the second time in one week that I have to engage with something written by a British academic on their assessment of Brexit & Ireland. In this case @HelenHet20 in @NewStatesman 🧵 1. @HelenHet20 Europe’s vaccine crisis has revealed the true nature of the EU?? Ireland has been a member state since 1973, has had more refs on EU topics than any other country & thus its political & administrative elite knows & understands EU @BrigidLaffan

Not often I read something @Telegraph that I feel has to be taken on but Vernon Bogdanor’s opinion today is one such piece. Bogdanor is one of the leading scholars of the British Constitution & has an in-depth knowledge of Irish history so there are no excuses @KingsCollegeLon 1. His assertion that the Northern Ireland Protocol has fallen at the first whiff of grapeshot is evidence of a scholar rushing to judgement just 4 weeks into the implementation of a complex set of legal provisions @BrigidLaffan

Am prompted to do this 🧵 following @BEERG sharing of Gove 19 April’16 speech, @kevinhorourke observation on interests & ideas & @CER_Grant observation that historians will ponder the weakness of economic interests in Brexit negs at @InstituteGC yesterday @BrigidLaffan 1. Seems to me that @BorisJohnson has delivered on the @michaelgove 2016 speech in one important sense-not the sunny uplands of Brexit but the working out of what Brexit was to this clique who drove the Leave campaign @BrigidLaffan

Extensive U.K. discussion on #EU27 approach to #Brexit. Began with @anandMenon1 & @jillongovt who suggested 1 reason for hard Brexit is ‘defensive’ EU. Now @Mij_Europe has a poll offering the ‘defensive’ option. @NashSGC has thread explaining why EU defensive-SM. @BrigidLaffan 1. EU must defend the gains of integration both polity & market power. This is not ‘defensive’ as in anxious but defending achievements @BrigidLaffan

Participated in a very interesting panel this week @StAntsCollege @UniofOxford & was asked 2 excellent questions by @KalypsoNicolaid & @fromTGA on why #EU27 was united against UK but not Putin & XI Jinping & why UK leaving EU was more a threat than Hungary @BrigidLaffan 1. Unity stemmed from existential nature of #Brexit-first country to leave EU, a vote of no confidence in the Union & the hard Brexiteers led by Farage wanted destruction of the Union @BrigidLaffan

Thread on EU too defensive claim from @anandMenon1 & @jillongovt in #Brexit negs. EU27 had something to defend & continues to have. What. 1. The share polity, Union. 2. Collective achievements-SM & shared policies. 3. Quality of membership. @BrigidLaffan 2. U.K. a was champion of outouts/opt ins. Had bespoke membership but that was not enough to keep UK in. Post ref-U.K. never set out a clear landing zone for post membership relationship that had worked through the trade-offs. @BrigidLaffan

Very pessimistic @TheEconomist editorial on #EU this issue. Fully agree with the failings/challenges identified but editorial distorts the Union’s history in two ways. 1. Says that EU has had a ‘sense of direction’ in the past & this time EU has lost its way. @BrigidLaffan 1. At the end of the 1970s following the two oil crises, EU had many common problems but no agreement on direction/solutions. Found that direction in SEA & single market. In fact @TheEconomist was also very concerned by EU capacity to govern. @BrigidLaffan

Short thread on Irish election #GE2020 for my non-Irish followers. 1. #FF the party that informed Peter Mair’s ‘cartel party’ will not be a cartel party again. It will never regain its pre-crash standing. 2. SF emerged as the largest party in vote terms. @BrigidLaffan The performance of #SF was a surprise given their 2019 EP & local elections performance but they managed to frame a manifesto that really resonated with the electorate @BrigidLaffan

@BBCnews & @SkyNews & the multiple correspondents tasked with reporting/commenting on #Brexit you have a tendency to frame & report on optics not substance. Short thread on why yesterday was a very bad day for #UK @BrigidLaffan

https://twitter.com/jennifermerode/status/1173827015994216449

1. GAC ministerial meeting met in Brussels yesterday. UK left an empty chair. Message-we won’t waste our resources on what concerns you even though it was a discussion about ‘rule of law’. Not smart when PM is going to Lux to meet #Juncker. @BrigidLaffan

#Brexit beyond current crisis. Question. If we assume that the #HMG & U.K. need a deal with EU27 at some stage, how does what PM Johnson is doing affect this. @BrigidLaffan 1. #HMG has increased risk & uncertainty for all of Europe but has not put a single document with credible solutions on the table. David Frost & Steven Barclay have got to Burssels saying we want a deal but no solutions. @BrigidLaffan

Now that peak Brexit approaches & London has ratcheted up blame game, let’s review how UK has handled Brexit. Brexit negs will be used as a case study. UK political elite especially those in power will be judged to have made an appalling mess of same @BrigidLaffan 1. No attempt was made to find a domestic accommodation following a narrow Leave win given the scale of what Brexit implied. @BrigidLaffan

@RonanMcCrea has an op-Ed in @sundaybusiness today on backstop. @BrigidLaffan Much to say but I will identify what I think is most problematic about the argument. 1. The use of the word ‘simply’ to suggest that Irish agreement to move border issues to phase 2 of talks is just that-simple. No it is not. @BrigidLaffan

1. @hayward_katy & @DavidHennick1 have outlined the reasons for the backstop in detail & done us all a service. This thread is about the implications of the current impasse for British-Irish relations-the context of what is playing out. @BrigidLaffan 2. #Brexit brings into sharp relief the troubled history of the two islands. What is shocking yes shocking for Ireland is the carelessness with which our neighbour went about its #Brexit business. @BrigidLaffan