2 observations following a number of academic & policy exchanges on Brexit this week.1. Almost all UK commentators-academic, official & political now argue that EU needs to re-think its approach to third country neighbours-few of them were making case when UK a MS @BrigidLaffan
This call is because reality of 3rd country status begins to bite & however desired by hard Brexiteers, it sits uneasily with almost 50 years of membership. 2. Brexit is seen as the ultimate benchmark for EU by many in U.K., most recently by @GoodwinMJ last night. @BrigidLaffan
What kind of benchmark is Brexit? U.K. is 1 medium sized state while EU remains dominant economic power in Europe. All neighbours have to adjust to its presence not the other way around & all European third countries benefit from the public goods supplied by EU. @BrigidLaffan
How would UK operate in its neighbourhood without the heavy lifting done by EU on market making. The frictions caused by Brexit would multiply & of course EU is much more than its market. @BrigidLaffan
So if Brexit is a benchmark what is it a benchmark of? For individual member states I suspect is the argument but if Brexit had led to a domino effect would this have been in U.K. interest? would a disintegrating EU sought by the Europhobes be good for GB?
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Lots of discussion in my timeline on the imbalanced nature of N.Irl Protocol-a nationalist solution & a weakness of British statecraft according to @TomMcTague & a miscalculation re. protection of single market @SirSocks@BrigidLaffan
1. No appreciation of the consequences of U.K. decision to leave EU for island of Ireland. Not a live issue in the ref campaign & UK negotiators did not fully grasp the complexity of issues until well after ref. @BrigidLaffan
2. Theresa Villiers when still SOS for N. irl. Week after ref says ‘we can keep a border that is as open & free-flowing as it is today’ -she was correct but her idea of how that could be achieved was way off @DefraGovUK@BrigidLaffan
This is the second time in one week that I have to engage with something written by a British academic on their assessment of Brexit & Ireland. In this case @HelenHet20 in @NewStatesman 🧵
1. @HelenHet20 Europe’s vaccine crisis has revealed the true nature of the EU?? Ireland has been a member state since 1973, has had more refs on EU topics than any other country & thus its political & administrative elite knows & understands EU @BrigidLaffan
2. Said elite & electorate never idealised EU-small states are acutely aware of limits of their power & deploy capacity with care-the Swedes coined the term smart states. Small states understand they have to be smart. @BrigidLaffan
Not often I read something @Telegraph that I feel has to be taken on but Vernon Bogdanor’s opinion today is one such piece. Bogdanor is one of the leading scholars of the British Constitution & has an in-depth knowledge of Irish history so there are no excuses @KingsCollegeLon
1. His assertion that the Northern Ireland Protocol has fallen at the first whiff of grapeshot is evidence of a scholar rushing to judgement just 4 weeks into the implementation of a complex set of legal provisions @BrigidLaffan
2. He rightly identifies problems the Protocol causes for GB-Northern Ireland economic exchange but argues that any flexibility EU would agree to would not solve the problem because the problem for him is constitutional. For him the Protocol cannot work @BrigidLaffan
Am prompted to do this 🧵 following @BEERG sharing of Gove 19 April’16 speech, @kevinhorourke observation on interests & ideas & @CER_Grant observation that historians will ponder the weakness of economic interests in Brexit negs at @InstituteGC yesterday @BrigidLaffan
1. Seems to me that @BorisJohnson has delivered on the @michaelgove 2016 speech in one important sense-not the sunny uplands of Brexit but the working out of what Brexit was to this clique who drove the Leave campaign @BrigidLaffan
2. That was a total rejection of the #EU model of internationalisation, its governance regimes, institutions, regulatory frameworks, its ideals & the political, economic & legal order it represents. @BrigidLaffan
Extensive U.K. discussion on #EU27 approach to #Brexit. Began with @anandMenon1 & @jillongovt who suggested 1 reason for hard Brexit is ‘defensive’ EU. Now @Mij_Europe has a poll offering the ‘defensive’ option. @NashSGC has thread explaining why EU defensive-SM. @BrigidLaffan
1. EU must defend the gains of integration both polity & market power. This is not ‘defensive’ as in anxious but defending achievements @BrigidLaffan
2. Membership has to matter or why would states submit to mutual vulnerability. If the #Brexit argument is to throw off constraint why would the 27 allow an imbalance between rights & obligations especially for a large state @BrigidLaffan
1. Unity stemmed from existential nature of #Brexit-first country to leave EU, a vote of no confidence in the Union & the hard Brexiteers led by Farage wanted destruction of the Union @BrigidLaffan
2. #EU27 had to protect the polity & the market against UK’s departure. Membership has to matter-if a former member could retain lots of rights while outside the club the internal equilibrium of the Union would be jeopardised. @BrigidLaffan