.@DavidGHFrost & @CBeaune will meet in Paris today to talk fish. What's the latest state of play & mood on 🐟? 1/
Senior UKG officials remain of the view the evidence presented by Fr Govt remains weak - despite low threshold test they're being asked to meet (in English waters, evidence of fishing at least one day in each of the four years between 2012-16) 2/
The UKG also doesn't want to be seen to be responding to blackmail (choking Calais-Dover strait; in past, threats to interrupt electricity supply to Jersey). There's also a belief that other member states (& Commission) don't fully support the French 3/
This is contradicted by Fr fish sources & reports which say progress is being made in Bxl on question of rules for recognition of “replacement boats”: new vessels which replaced those known to have fished in disputed waters. Jersey has started to recognise them in recent weeks 4/
The French hope the UKG will now start to do the same for English waters. This could substantially reduce the number of refused licences - & pave the way for a deal. UKG numbers published last night show another 37 licences are under consideration. This is THE key to a deal 5/ 
Still, there's a strong view on UK side that 1) there's an assertion of rights where none previously existed & 2) Macron hasn't fully prepared his fishing communities for the fact Brexit is going to reduce their catch & access to UK waters 6/
This last point is telling. The Brexit treaty was supposed to preserve – not reduce – previous EU access to 6-12 miles zones which is the source of dispute with France. So a deal is likely, yes. But prob still has some way to go
ENDS
ENDS
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