Has the @ZemmourEric bubble burst? Who knows - but it’s no longer floating upwards. A new poll this afternoon by OpinionWay for Les Echos puts the xenophobic pundit at 13% of voting intentions in 1st round of Fr pres elex in April. Other recent surveys have put him at 14-17% 1/
Poll below. Rumours earlier this week of an unpublished poll putting Zemmour at 21% have proved unfounded. After tripling his support in a month, Zemmour’s score has scarcely moved in the last fortnight. Has he reached his ceiling? Too early to be sure 2/

lesechos.fr/elections/sond…
The Opinionway poll puts @EmmanuelMacron at top of 1st round voting intentions on 25% - roughly his score in all recent polls. The traditional Far Right in shape of Le Pen comes second on 18%, followed by Zemmour and poss centre right standard bearer Xavier Bertrand on 12% 3/
Bertrand’s chief rivals in a closed primary of Les Républicains, on 4 Dec – Michel Barnier & Valerie Pécresse - score only 8% each. Once centre-right candidate is chosen, he or she may get a bounce in polls. Big enough to overtake Le Pen & Zemmour & snatch 2nd spot in 2nd round??

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More from @Mij_Europe

22 Oct
Every day brings a new French opinion poll and the presidential election is still 6 months away. Today’s poll is more interesting than most – the second deep dive by @lemondefr, Ispos and Sciences Po into a big, permanent sample of over 16,000 people 1/

lemonde.fr/politique/arti…
On the surface, the results more or less match other recent polls, which are based on much smaller samples. Macron is at 24% in first round voting intentions, the xenophobic pundit Eric Zemmour is second on 16-16.5%, Marine Le Pen third on about 15% 2/
The Le Monde mega-poll – the first since April – also confirms that Xavier Bertrand, president of the northern French region, has the most nationwide support of the contenders in the closed primary of the centre-right party, Les Républicains, on 4 Dec 3/
Read 8 tweets
19 Oct
Today @EU_Commission formally begins its “reflection/review” of EU fiscal rules. This is a BIG deal. The outcome will basically determine whether EU faces a fiscal cliff in 2023 or not. Short thread on 5 (worrying?) trends to watch that'll decisively shape how debate plays out 1/
1/ Process: As always in EU, key to substance. Fiscal hawks @VDombrovskis & Northern European member states want @EU_Commission annual fiscal surveillance cycle (starting next Apr) & fiscal review to be decoupled. Put diff: to default to old rules while new ones are worked out 2/
.@PaoloGentiloni believes momentum behind reform will be stronger if Commission’s surveillance & reflection are linked. Makes sense: why would @EU_Commission go back to old rules if it was clear they were changing? Whoever wins this process point will be 1/2 way on substance 3/
Read 11 tweets
15 Oct
The @EU_Commission @MarosSefcovic package create a big headache for @BorisJohnson & @DavidGHFrost - because they go further than both were expecting

But senior sources say UKG is still not resolved on compromise or conflict - & see risks & opportunities in both 1/
Without such a significant offer, UK ministers believe Johnson would have triggered Article 16, probably by end-November, to suspend all or (more likely) part of protocol. But UKG now has no choice but to seriously engage in talks - not just go through the motions 2/
Johnson’s allies think movement on ECJ will be needed to tip balance in favour of peace vs war, but this is something EU will find VERY difficult to do. How can Bxl offer ECJ concessions on SM/goods to 3rd country while insisting on court's writ with member states (ie Poland)? 3/
Read 12 tweets
14 Oct
The @EU_Commission is going to continue withholding Recovery Fund €bn from Pol & Hu & I suspect WILL activate new Rule of Law mechanism against them. Not because @vonderleyen is worried about @Europarl_EN taking her to court. But because it's in COM's own interests to do so 1/
The most imp reason is the creation of Recovery Fund & governance arrangements underpinning it. These have fundamentally altered @EU_Commission incentives. There's a recognition A LOT is riding on its successful implementation 2/
For eg: 1) whether something similar could be done in the future if EU was faced with another external shock. Or 2) whether EU fiscal rules can be substantially amended to give member states more time to repair their public finances & create budget space for green investments 3/
Read 10 tweets
9 Oct
The EU's proposals for addressing the problems in NI are substantive & far reaching. They will effectively do away with all paperwork for goods destined for NI - instead of a border in Irish Sea, think of a “green” (NI-bound) & “red” (Single Market) lane 1/
It has taken a lot of time & leadership from @MarosSefcovic & @vonderleyen to get Commission services & member states into line. Although EU capitals haven't seen the final package & all the details, they've been socialised with what's coming 2/
The Commission's ambition has been driven by 1) a desire to institute practical fixes to improve experience of citizens & businesses in NI, but also, importantly, 2) tactics 3/
Read 12 tweets
5 Oct
What to make of the blizzard of French presidential polls in recent days? The racist far-right pundit Eric Zemmour (no apologies for the word racist) is at 15% in first round in one poll, just behind Marine Le Pen but miles behind President Macron 1/
In another poll, @EmmanuelMacron is seen soundly defeating all challengers in the two candidate second round on 24 April. He beats Zemmour  65-35, Le Pen 60-40 and the leading (for now) centre-right contender, Xavier Bertrand, 55-45 3/

linternaute.com/actualite/poli…
Read 10 tweets

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