Thread by @Mij_Europe

The EU's rule of law crisis with Poland is now not so much an issue of East vs West, but West vs West—with Angela Merkel directly squaring off against her Northern European allies over how to resolve the stand-off—& a weak European Commission President caught in the middle 1/

In the run up to last week’s EUCO, it wasn't even clear whether the issue would feature on the leader’s agenda. @eucopresident proposed a 10-min slot to allow @MorawieckiM @vonderleyen & @MinPres to intervene - something I understand the Chancellery pushed hard to kill 2/

As it happens, Poland/RoL is so controversial every leader intervened. The Polish threat is essentially: ‘Give us money without conditions so we can peacefully build an autocracy within the EU or we will wreck your Union’. Morawiecki’s intervention at EP was particularly shocking

Many EU leaders thus pushed @EU_Commission to withhold EU Recovery €bn until Warsaw has introduced judicial reforms @vonderleyen outlined at @Europarl_EN. As one senior official from N Europe tells me: “We were very happy with both the length & intensity of [EUCO] debate” 4/

But N Europe now finds itself lined up against a formidable opponent - Merkel - who is leaning VERY hard on @EU_Commission to sort this BEFORE she leaves office in Dec. As one senior EU official says: “Merkel does not want to leave the Union divided. This is about her legacy.” 5/

Rightly/wrongly, Merkel remains v worried about an existential East-West rift at heart of EU that paralyses the Union & creates “second-tier status” for Pol & Hu compared to other member states (those who get €bn vs those who don't). Many think her background is instructive 6/

But N Europe feels just as strong. So any move towards a fudge—disbursing €bn to Pol BEFORE Warsaw has taken concrete steps to address EU’s RoL concerns would kill Commission’s credibility on both RoL AND implementation of Recovery Fund. “An East-West split goes both ways” 7/

Says a N EU source. “We don’t want to be chased away either.”
The North is now pushing the Commission to introduce a package of measures comprising three legs—(1) abolition of Pol Govt's controversial “disciplinary chamber” prior to any disbursements being made to Warsaw 8/

(2) an infringement procedure by @EU_Commission challenging Poland’s position on supremacy of EU law and (3) the activation of EU’s new rule of law mechanism. Merkel, in the other direction, is leaning very hard on the Commission to be much softer 9/

Eg: rather than stipulate that abolition of disciplinary chamber is a pre-condition for €bn, the Chancellery is arguing that if “Poland indicates or takes positive steps towards abolition” that wd be enough. This is a substantial lowering of threshold Warsaw wd have to meet 10/

But as a N European source tells me: “We expect the Commission to be very tough. The ECJ says the disciplinary chamber needs to be abolished.  Can the Commission be softer than the ECJ? This will need to be a first step. It can’t be spread out over the next 6 or 7 years.” 11/

Importantly, I also understand @vonderleyen told EU leaders that she will NOT activate the EU's new RoL mechanism - condition (3) - until she has the final opinion of the ECJ, expected in Dec or Jan - REGARDLESS of the pressure she faces from MEP's in the European Parliament 12/

Who will win this tug of war? Who knows. But senior EU sources are clear that if Merkel does, @MinPres in conjunction with other Northern European member states, will vote AGAINST the Commission’s recommendation to disburse €bn to Warsaw 13/

While the legal basis for the €bn disbursement decision is qualified majority voting—meaning the Hague alone would not have a veto—the political implications of such a move would be unprecedented 14/

Senior Commission officials (rightly) worry it would effectively kill the prospect of a permanent Recovery Fund or “fiscal capacity” for Eurozone over medium term; it would also negatively impact Northern Europe’s willingness to substantively dilute EU’s fiscal rulebook. Ugh 15/

Where are French? @EmmanuelMacron usually takes a very tough position on these issues, but the French President is taking a much more cautious approach this time around. Elysée sources deny that this is because he fears it would be used against him by “sovereigntists” in Fr 16/

But everyone from Zemmour & Le Pen to Bertrand & Jean-Luc Melenchon have, in various ways, used Polish crisis to make ignorant comments on how supremacy of EU law works & suggest, w/out explaining how, Fr should assert primacy of its own national law while remaining in the EU 17/

This domestic context is therefore part of Macron’s go soft calculation—he does not want Brussels vs Warsaw to become a huge conflict which could spill over into his presidential race in Apr next year, esp as French electorate is ignorant & confused about how EU works 18/

And is ripe for exploitation by distorted, populist arguments which are difficult to counter in soundbites. The stance has not gone down well in N Europe. As one official says, “The Fr are not playing a large role. They are looking out for their own interests—as Fr always does”

Although Merkel has barely a month left in office and is likely to be replaced by a Govt that will be much tougher on rule of law issues than she has been, senior EU officials caution that her weight & impact on the debate should not be underestimated 20/

“She may be a lame duck, but she is still Angela Merkel and she still has a very strong voice in this debate” says one senior EU official. A N EU official puts it more directly: “Forget Merkel. The question is whether the Commission wants to side with these maniacs or democrats.”

With appeasement from Merkel & a hardline from the North, the key question is which way @vonderleyen now jumps. Who knows. Ultimately it is the Parliament that can bring her Commission down, not EU leaders. But is that a credible threat & will it prove enough? 22/

Regardless, the mealy-mouthed statements from Merkel have arguably already negatively impacted the incentives for Poland & Hungary to comply with EU's demands - and the result of such appeasement, naturally, is likely to be more defiance from both member states towards Bxl 23/

Only on Thursday last week, Orban insisted Hungary would resolutely “stand beside” Poland.  And as one senior Polish source says of the Polish Govt's real power behind the throne: “Kaczynski only heels when he has water up to his nostrils. He is Russian in that sense.” 24/

As I've said before, this is THE big issue now for @vonderleyen mandate. How will it be resolved? Full piece here: politico.eu/article/europe…