The UK is going to invoke Article 16. They'll argue it's surgical - "it's only Articles 5 & 7" etc. But EU will (rightly) see it as nuclear

I expect no intermediate step (tariffs). Just an immediate, emergency EU Council & political decision to *suspend* the UK-EU trade deal 1/
This, which is = "No deal", won't come into effect until 2023 (+ 1yr). Put differently: next year will see a re-run of Brexit (renegotiation of Irish border issue, with threat of no deal tariffs looming in the background). Can you actually believe we're heading back there??! 2/
Some say @BorisJohnson will bottle it & do a deal. Maybe. But the gaps between the two sides are massive, not just on ECJ. For eg: UKG officials say they can't stand up @EU_Commission claim that its proposals substantially reduce burden on biz trading GB-NI by 80% 3/
They say work undertaken by a large well-known UK retailer shows the @MarosSefcovic package only reduces checks necessitated by Protocol from 2 to 1.8 days - or from 48 hours to just over 43. This = only a 10% reduction in checks, nowhere close to Bxl' 80% figure 4/
Others say @BorisJohnson won't/doesn't care about EU no deal threat. It's all priced in. Again - perhaps. It will be interesting to see how the threat of no-deal WTO tariffs play in an election year/run up to an election year (2023/4) 5/
Suspect part of BoJo/Frost calculation is 1) belief EU won't be able to build consensus on suspension (Pol/Hu, new Ger Govt, Fr elex etc). 2) If EU can, it wont hold through next yr. 3) That EU wont introduce checks N-S or between Ire/Fr & so is stuck between rock & hard place...
... BOTH unable to institute controls/checks or meaningfully retaliate. Meanwhile, UKG will change facts on ground that support its view there's no risk to Single Market & MaxFac/Malthouse was always the way to go.. ! (Yes, Malthouse is back) 7/
But this is a lazy assumption which fundamentally misreads how EU views the coming A16. Strap in - seems things are about to get very, very bumpy indeed

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

Keep Current with Mujtaba Rahman

Mujtaba Rahman Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!


Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @Mij_Europe

4 Nov
.@DavidGHFrost & @CBeaune will meet in Paris today to talk fish. What's the latest state of play & mood on 🐟? 1/
Senior UKG officials remain of the view the evidence presented by Fr Govt remains weak - despite low threshold test they're being asked to meet (in English waters, evidence of fishing at least one day in each of the four years between 2012-16) 2/
The UKG also doesn't want to be seen to be responding to blackmail (choking Calais-Dover strait; in past, threats to interrupt electricity supply to Jersey). There's also a belief that other member states (& Commission) don't fully support the French 3/
Read 7 tweets
30 Oct
The spin and translation imposed on the French PM’s letter is misleading. The bulk of the letter - 98% to use a topical figure – is asking Brussels to ensure that the UK respects its post Brexit deal 1/
The last line of the first page says it “is essential to  demonstrate to European public opinion that respect for formal commitments is not negotiable and that  leaving the Union has more disadvantages than remaining within it.” The first part of this sentence has been cut from..
..the translation to make it sound harsher. Castex is not calling for Britain to be “damaged by Brexit”. He is saying that European public opinion must see that the UK is made to respect its legal promises and therefore understand that leaving the EU is more painful than positive
Read 4 tweets
29 Oct
Late to this long, in-depth tour de force by Elisabeth Zerofsky into why Tucker Carlson (and other US conservative radicals) favour Hungary's Viktor Orban in NYT Magazine. I do, however, think the piece is far too soft on both Carlson and his Magyar hero 1/
The piece does note that Carlson “evinced little familiarity with the internal affairs of Hungary” - which is true. But the thing is, he made no attempt to find out 2/
Although he certainly talked about seemingly random meetings with Orban sympathisers during his week-long stay in Orbanistan, he strangely failed to find any opponents, and this despite Budapest being the largest centre of anti-Orban, liberal-left supporters in the country 3/
Read 10 tweets
26 Oct
The EU's rule of law crisis with Poland is now not so much an issue of East vs West, but West vs West—with Angela Merkel directly squaring off against her Northern European allies over how to resolve the stand-off—& a weak European Commission President caught in the middle 1/
In the run up to last week’s EUCO, it wasn't even clear whether the issue would feature on the leader’s agenda. @eucopresident proposed a 10-min slot to allow @MorawieckiM @vonderleyen & @MinPres to intervene - something I understand the Chancellery pushed hard to kill 2/
As it happens, Poland/RoL is so controversial every leader intervened. The Polish threat is essentially: ‘Give us money without conditions so we can peacefully build an autocracy within the EU or we will wreck your Union’. Morawiecki’s intervention at EP was particularly shocking
Read 25 tweets
22 Oct
Every day brings a new French opinion poll and the presidential election is still 6 months away. Today’s poll is more interesting than most – the second deep dive by @lemondefr, Ispos and Sciences Po into a big, permanent sample of over 16,000 people 1/…
On the surface, the results more or less match other recent polls, which are based on much smaller samples. Macron is at 24% in first round voting intentions, the xenophobic pundit Eric Zemmour is second on 16-16.5%, Marine Le Pen third on about 15% 2/
The Le Monde mega-poll – the first since April – also confirms that Xavier Bertrand, president of the northern French region, has the most nationwide support of the contenders in the closed primary of the centre-right party, Les Républicains, on 4 Dec 3/
Read 8 tweets
21 Oct
Has the @ZemmourEric bubble burst? Who knows - but it’s no longer floating upwards. A new poll this afternoon by OpinionWay for Les Echos puts the xenophobic pundit at 13% of voting intentions in 1st round of Fr pres elex in April. Other recent surveys have put him at 14-17% 1/
Poll below. Rumours earlier this week of an unpublished poll putting Zemmour at 21% have proved unfounded. After tripling his support in a month, Zemmour’s score has scarcely moved in the last fortnight. Has he reached his ceiling? Too early to be sure 2/…
The Opinionway poll puts @EmmanuelMacron at top of 1st round voting intentions on 25% - roughly his score in all recent polls. The traditional Far Right in shape of Le Pen comes second on 18%, followed by Zemmour and poss centre right standard bearer Xavier Bertrand on 12% 3/
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!