Thread by @Mij_Europe

The UK is going to invoke Article 16. They'll argue it's surgical - "it's only Articles 5 & 7" etc. But EU will (rightly) see it as nuclear

I expect no intermediate step (tariffs). Just an immediate, emergency EU Council & political decision to *suspend* the UK-EU trade deal 1/

This, which is = "No deal", won't come into effect until 2023 (+ 1yr). Put differently: next year will see a re-run of Brexit (renegotiation of Irish border issue, with threat of no deal tariffs looming in the background). Can you actually believe we're heading back there??! 2/

Some say @BorisJohnson will bottle it & do a deal. Maybe. But the gaps between the two sides are massive, not just on ECJ. For eg: UKG officials say they can't stand up @EU_Commission claim that its proposals substantially reduce burden on biz trading GB-NI by 80% 3/

They say work undertaken by a large well-known UK retailer shows the @MarosSefcovic package only reduces checks necessitated by Protocol from 2 to 1.8 days - or from 48 hours to just over 43. This = only a 10% reduction in checks, nowhere close to Bxl' 80% figure 4/

Others say @BorisJohnson won't/doesn't care about EU no deal threat. It's all priced in. Again - perhaps. It will be interesting to see how the threat of no-deal WTO tariffs play in an election year/run up to an election year (2023/4) 5/

Suspect part of BoJo/Frost calculation is 1) belief EU won't be able to build consensus on suspension (Pol/Hu, new Ger Govt, Fr elex etc). 2) If EU can, it wont hold through next yr. 3) That EU wont introduce checks N-S or between Ire/Fr & so is stuck between rock & hard place...

... BOTH unable to institute controls/checks or meaningfully retaliate. Meanwhile, UKG will change facts on ground that support its view there's no risk to Single Market & MaxFac/Malthouse was always the way to go.. ! (Yes, Malthouse is back) 7/

But this is a lazy assumption which fundamentally misreads how EU views the coming A16. Strap in - seems things are about to get very, very bumpy indeed
ENDS