Whoa here is a map we have not seen for a *while* 
Guesses?
So, Delco may still have some mail in ballots left to count, & I suppose others might as well? But as of today, at least, this is where the Nov 2021 PA Dem top of ticket (Maria McLaughlin) improved over Joe Biden, and where she lost ground.
Sorry, realized that was ambiguous. Everywhere in blue here saw Maria McLaughlin improve over Joe Biden's vote share. Everywhere in red saw Brobson improve over Donald Trump. [But note Delco mail-in vote count not yet complete: could end up a lighter shade of red...]
Meanwhile, in ballots reported as of today Nov. 4, here's the change of each county's total ballots cast within the statewide total. Bucks & Erie, 👀
All of which is to say, most of this Tuesday's statewide results could be predicted by taking Joe Torsella's narrow Nov 2020 defeat as the baseline for partisan allegiance within PA moving forward...
Update: After spending an obsessive evening with Dept of State data @GianniHillPA helpfully pointed me to, it looks like there are at least ~69,000 timely mail-in ballots statewide not yet tallied, concentrated in Philly & Montco but spread widely, & ranging fr 60-85% Dem. So!
@GianniHillPA Calculating by county suggests statewide Dem candidates may net 35-45,000 more votes from these mail-ins (range bc possible undervotes, missing signatures etc). #CountEveryVote people, ain't over til it's over. So as not to contribute to a misleading early closure I redid my maps
@GianniHillPA & here's the swing from Trump to Brobson, w/not-yet-tallied mail-ins modeled & added. In blue counties McLaughlin 2021 outperformed Biden 2020, in red vice versa. No, I have no idea what's up w/Mercer (wondered first if Brobson was fr there but no, that's Lycoming: also visible!)
@GianniHillPA And hmm, what if Nov 2021 in PA doesn't look like a grim new omen for PA Dems but more like... 2017?
@GianniHillPA and because I know you were about to ask, here's what relative turnout shifts from previous year's presidential looked like in 2017
(btw please note that whatever comparison you look at, @eriedems just absolutely killed it in 2021. @jim_wertz! )
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