Thread by @_JakubJanda

(THREAD) Why I brought a Czech Think Tank to Taiwan

I just moved to Taiwan.

Let me explain why - in my article for @Newsweek.

FULL STORY: newsweek.com/why-i-brought-…

THE BIG GAME: The Chinese Communist Party wants to crush liberal democracies and dominate the world order. China wants to conquer and subdue the free and sovereign island for the same reasons Russia invades and murders the people of Ukraine or Georgia.

Taiwan is our first line of defence against Chinese aggression, the same way Ukraine is facing Russian hostilities.

That is why we are opening our@_EuropeanValues office in Taipei.

Our plan is simple: We will cooperate with the best global experts on understanding the Chinese threat:

Like the Taiwanese Defence Ministry think-tank @INDSRTW.

What can persuade Chinese leadership why NOT to invade Taiwan.

1) military deterrence: United States, Japan & Australia

2) political + economic deterrence: Europeans need to make sure Chinese leaders know it would have major political and economic costs for China in Europe.

A successful European deterrence strategy for Taiwan:

would make Chinese leadership assess that European response would be like after 2014 Russian invasion of Ukraine = sectoral and oligarchic structurally-targeted sanctions, and mid-level international diplomatic isolation

An unsuccessful European deterrence strategy:

like after the 2008 Russian invasion of Georgia: no systematic sanctions, no diplomatic isolation, effectively business as usual and increasing Western attempts to appease the aggressor.

Like the 1938 Munich Agreement.

Taiwan is a great knowledge base for understanding Chinese political, intelligence and military leadership, and it also has amazing expertise on technological research and ways for protecting it from Chinese espionage.

Europeans (including NATO leaders) want that knowledge.

That’s why we have decided to set up our office in Taipei, being the first private European think-tank to do so.

We are not doing it only for Taiwan, it is a European defense strategy it a global confrontation with the Chinese Communist Party.

We need Taiwan’s experiential knowledge of the Chinese threat to our collective security.

In turn, we can contribute to defending the existence of a free Taiwan by clearly signaling to Beijing:” If you invade or blockade Taiwan, you will lose the European market.”

We need to tell the Chinese leadership loud and clear:

Attacking Taiwan means China will lose remaining friends and appeasers the same way Adolf Hitler did when he attacked Poland in September 1939 or Vladimir Putin after invading Ukraine in 2014.

We stand strong with Taiwan.