THREAD:
WHY WE NEED TO GET REAL ON RUSSIA NOW:
EUROPEAN POLICY FAILURE: Why does Russia (and its proxies such as Belarus) keep doing major hostile operations such as using a terrorist-style tactics to kidnap a journalist from a civilian airlines?
WHY WE NEED TO GET REAL ON RUSSIA NOW:
EUROPEAN POLICY FAILURE: Why does Russia (and its proxies such as Belarus) keep doing major hostile operations such as using a terrorist-style tactics to kidnap a journalist from a civilian airlines?
Since 2014,Russia has been conducting openly hostile na often murderous operations against European democracies:
from violent coup attempt in Montenegro
assassination operations in UK, Germany or Bulgaria,
to blowing up arms depot on NATO soil in Czech Republic or Bulgaria
from violent coup attempt in Montenegro
assassination operations in UK, Germany or Bulgaria,
to blowing up arms depot on NATO soil in Czech Republic or Bulgaria
It is known that Russia effectively controls the intelligence service (KGB) and armed forces of Belarus.
So the RyanAir kidnapping operation could not happen without Russian state approval or support.
So the RyanAir kidnapping operation could not happen without Russian state approval or support.
The bottom line: Russia thinks it is worth conducting such hostile operations like the RyanAir operation against a journalist.
They clearly believe that it pays off. Russia thinks: EuU punitive response will be largely symbolic = it will not really hurt Belarus or Russia.
They clearly believe that it pays off. Russia thinks: EuU punitive response will be largely symbolic = it will not really hurt Belarus or Russia.
The fact that Russia believes that European punishment will be very soft is the core of our European problem.
Our enemy knows we will not punish his aggression so it is worth doing it again.
Our enemy knows we will not punish his aggression so it is worth doing it again.
What should Europe do?
If we really WANT these Russian state hostilities to stop, we must make it really damaging for the Kremlin interests so that we change their pragmatic calculus.
If we really WANT these Russian state hostilities to stop, we must make it really damaging for the Kremlin interests so that we change their pragmatic calculus.
Symbolic sanctions on (1) irrelevant individuals or (2) known Russian intelligence personnel are worthless since those people don’t care, so it does not hurt the Kremlin leaders.
As @IZaslavskiy proposes, we need to go after the Kremlin oligarchs who keep Putin in power. They must be the target of our sanctions to make it really hurt for the Kremlin dictatorship.
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Anything else will be read in Moscow as Europe saying:
"Keep doing it, we don’t really care, we are just pretending that we are responding but we (Europeans) love your dirty money via Nord Stream 2 and other elite capture projects."
"Keep doing it, we don’t really care, we are just pretending that we are responding but we (Europeans) love your dirty money via Nord Stream 2 and other elite capture projects."
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