I wanted to share this $ZIL trade with you so that you can hopefully learn some fundamental Price Action concepts
Here we'll explore:
- The Range
- FVG
- nPOC
- MSB
- Entry
- Psychology
Use these methods on $BTC any #cryptocurrency from $ETH, $SOL, $MATIC, $FTM $SHIB
Range:
I started off with drawing the range
You can see the notations on the drawings. Basically, I'm looking for the market structure before the sell off, and then the wicked candle that shows a liquidity tap that we assume will be run
FVG:
Then we're looking for a FVG, Fair Value Gap, where price trades through an area very quickly, leaving a 'gap' that opposite trending PA will 'fill'.
This occurs on any timeframe as price is fractal
nPOC:
Using Value Area Trading, or the VPSV tool on @tradingview, we can see that there is a Naked Point of Control that is at the top of the FVG.
This is where price spent the most amount of time within the previous day's session.
There is a lot of interest in these areas
MSB:
Market Structure Break is where we have a swing high violated (or swing low), where we then expect a retest before price is assumed to continue in a trend or a reversal
(also note that our future entry aligns with the VAL of the previous session too)
Entry:
We see price recede from the top of the range to the low, sweeping the lows on the way through.
Price then dances at range low, before impulsively breaking a local swing high, where we can then assume that we can make an entry to the targets of the FVG and nPOC
Psychology:
You can see that with the entry made, that there are several areas along the trade that could change your mind about your idea.
You just got to keep that conviction though and stick with the idea as price is drawn to liquidity at the nPOC
Result
Price rallied to fill the gap, reaches range high, smashed the nPOC, & the trade was a successful 2.48R
An enjoyable trade when sticking to your guns with the trading idea you have & watching it unfold
Thanks @Delta_Exchange for a great trade on a great exchange
So that's it folks - just wanted to show that with some logical thinking & PA principles, we can all hopefully be smashing it like @RektProof soon!
Thanks for stopping by; you know the drill - say g'day to the old chook for me, & have a great weekend!
🍻🤝
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Here's my 100 weeks of backtested $EURUSD price action from June 15 2020 to 09 May 2022, here's what is covered:
- Occurrence of high & low of the week
- % of high and low of the week per day
- % of Mondays high / low being swept on a given day
Took me a while, hope you enjoy
The high and low of the week
Here we can determine that the low of the week fell 38/100 times on a Mon, while the high of the week was also most likely to form on this day too with 31/100 occurrences
Note that there's during the week, there's more of a spread compared to $BTC
Percentage / Chance wise, you can see that Monday is more likely to be the low of the week by a factor of 5, 2, and 3 compared to a T, W, or Th respectively
Friday is different though.
With the high of the wk, Monday leads, followed by a Thurs, then Friday.
I made a free Price Action course not long ago - I'll share some detailed threads on portions of the course so you don't have to spend hours watching them when trading #Bitcoin & #Altcoins
We'll jump ahead to Module 4 - Ranges & Targets.
Why? Because I loved sharing this one!
What's in a Range?
A range is simply defined by anchoring two points on a chart based on:
A timeframe (daily, weekly, monthly etc)
Market structure
Or a combination of both
The method I use to anchor the range is a Fibonacci Tool, with values set at 1, 0.5, and 0
Range Tool Setup 1/1
1) First Select the 3rd item down on the left hand side menu
Then select "Fib Retracement"
2) Open up the settings of the Fib Retracement Tool, then set up the Fib tool to show the 0, 1, and 0.5 levels
The Trend Continuation fibs - covered in upcoming Module 3
Of course these are originally based on the ICT fibs, but nuanced per the following for #crypto & #bitcoin
- 0.72 entry point
- A negative 0.12 level
- 0.28 level
Why though?
The 0.72 Entry Point:
The reason for this is simple - it's the mid point of the 0.66 and 0.786 levels of the fib, where I've personally found much better entries and setups using this
The negative 0.12 level:
Included in this particular suite of fibs because you're looking for a get in, get out move that simply beats previous market structure.
By entering at the 0.72 level, this -0.12 level yields a 3RR move if the SL is at 1.
I backtested 100 weeks of $BTC #bitcoin price action from June 15 2020 to 09 May 2022, was able to determine the below:
- Occurrence of high & low of the week
- % of high and low of the week per day
- % of Mondays high / low being swept on a given day
8 hrs of research for you:
The high and low of the week
Here we can determine that the low of the week fell 43/100 times on a Mon, while the high of the week was also most likely to form on this day too with 27/100 occurrences
The rest of the days are generally similar, bar Tuesday lows & weekend highs
Percentage / Chance wise, it's obviously a no brainer in the fact that given the sample data of 100 weeks, that the % are simply a given of the numbers above