Thread by @DrRadchenko

A fascinating article on Trump & NATO, and in particular @jensstoltenberg's key role in dissuading Trump from attempting a US withdrawal from the alliance.

https://twitter.com/LeoSchuette/status/1447521535170912256

The key argument is that Stoltenberg patiently massaged Trump's ego through flattery, reached out to other actors in the US to contain Trump, and manipulated meeting agenda to make it appear like NATO was responding to Trump's concern about insufficient defence spending & China.

But the part I found most interesting was where Schuette talks about how Stoltenberg worked to undermine a possible rapprochement with Russia because it threatened NATO's very raison d'être.

Also here:

There is nothing surprising here, to be sure. In fact, NATO was never in a deeper crisis than when relations with Russia were at their best. In the early 1990s, it was not even clear that the alliance would survive. But it does raise interesting questions for the future.

One question is to what extent will entrenched bureaucratic interests in NATO resist improvement of relations with Russia when opportunities arise (e.g. after Putin's departure or in view of rapidly deteriorating US-China relations)?

Will, say, NATO's growing irrelevance under such circumstances translate into a bureaucratic strategy aimed at precluding an improvement in Russia's relations with the West? Schuette thinks NATO officials will play a major role here.

But Schuette's article is another reminder that the Russians are really the makers of their own misfortune. He shows, for instance, that were it not for Russia's aggressive policy, it would have been much more difficult to commit member states to increasing defence spending.

But do not feel sorry for Putin. Much like @jensstoltenberg, he has a direct stake in bad relations between Russia and the West, since his domestic legitimacy discourse is built around the narrative of NATO hostility towards Russia.

In other words, the situation is basically satisfying to both sides, and one only needs to commend Stoltenberg on expertly managing erratic Trump to make sure he did not upset this equilibrium of hostility.