With trading, you've got to think like the market maker, rather than what the crowd looks for with #Crypto
So here's my interpretation of a couple of possible $BTC plays.
Agenda:
- Overview
- Premium / Discount
- FRVP
- nPOC
- Support / Resistance
- FVG
- Plays
- Wrap up
Overview:
$BTC has retraced after hitting ATH just recently.
We saw a range form, followed by a liquidity grab for sell stops, up to buyside stops in the form of range deviations
Premium / Discount:
With regard to an overall range from the ATH to the current range low, we can explore the concept of discount and premiums.
Mid range is seen as fair value, with anything less than this a discount, and anything more, price being at a premium
FRVP:
We can see that the FRVP confirms to a certian degree, the location that we've placed our range
Price currently trades above the POC, and around a subsequent node, while also looking to recover the local mid range
nPOC:
Above current price, rests a singular nPOC at the ~$65k mark
Below price, there are a series of nPOC's closer down to the $56k, $51k, & $50k levels
These levels hold a lot of confluence as we explore in this thread
Support / Resistance:
In the form of resistance, we can see that we have the following:
- nPOC at $65k
- VAH at $65k
- 0.786 overall fib
Support:
From an overall perspective, there is a lot of support in the form of:
- nPOC's as shown in the chart
- 0.618 fib level
- note that 0.618 and 0.702 levels hold two nPOC's as well
FVG:
There is a run through resistance, with no closeback (via body or wick) at the $52.8k to $53.3k range
Typically, we see these areas filled again, but not always immediately (or ever in some cases)
To also frame it, the FVG rests just below the mid range of the global move
Plays:
There are of course a myriad of plays here, but here's some that could wholly or partially play out
1. Hit the $65k nPOC / resistance and reject or continue 2. Or, after the $65k nPOC grab, price heads South to retest the lower nPOC's and FVG
Wrap Up:
Do I know either way? Of course I don't, but I can only really show, based on some logical reasoning, how these plays could be attracted to these areas of interest
You've got to have a plan, so hopefully this helps you on your journey, and feel feel to give it a share
Thanks for your time guys, & hope you smash it either way in the coming months
Here's my 100 weeks of backtested $EURUSD price action from June 15 2020 to 09 May 2022, here's what is covered:
- Occurrence of high & low of the week
- % of high and low of the week per day
- % of Mondays high / low being swept on a given day
Took me a while, hope you enjoy
The high and low of the week
Here we can determine that the low of the week fell 38/100 times on a Mon, while the high of the week was also most likely to form on this day too with 31/100 occurrences
Note that there's during the week, there's more of a spread compared to $BTC
Percentage / Chance wise, you can see that Monday is more likely to be the low of the week by a factor of 5, 2, and 3 compared to a T, W, or Th respectively
Friday is different though.
With the high of the wk, Monday leads, followed by a Thurs, then Friday.
I made a free Price Action course not long ago - I'll share some detailed threads on portions of the course so you don't have to spend hours watching them when trading #Bitcoin & #Altcoins
We'll jump ahead to Module 4 - Ranges & Targets.
Why? Because I loved sharing this one!
What's in a Range?
A range is simply defined by anchoring two points on a chart based on:
A timeframe (daily, weekly, monthly etc)
Market structure
Or a combination of both
The method I use to anchor the range is a Fibonacci Tool, with values set at 1, 0.5, and 0
Range Tool Setup 1/1
1) First Select the 3rd item down on the left hand side menu
Then select "Fib Retracement"
2) Open up the settings of the Fib Retracement Tool, then set up the Fib tool to show the 0, 1, and 0.5 levels
The Trend Continuation fibs - covered in upcoming Module 3
Of course these are originally based on the ICT fibs, but nuanced per the following for #crypto & #bitcoin
- 0.72 entry point
- A negative 0.12 level
- 0.28 level
Why though?
The 0.72 Entry Point:
The reason for this is simple - it's the mid point of the 0.66 and 0.786 levels of the fib, where I've personally found much better entries and setups using this
The negative 0.12 level:
Included in this particular suite of fibs because you're looking for a get in, get out move that simply beats previous market structure.
By entering at the 0.72 level, this -0.12 level yields a 3RR move if the SL is at 1.
I backtested 100 weeks of $BTC #bitcoin price action from June 15 2020 to 09 May 2022, was able to determine the below:
- Occurrence of high & low of the week
- % of high and low of the week per day
- % of Mondays high / low being swept on a given day
8 hrs of research for you:
The high and low of the week
Here we can determine that the low of the week fell 43/100 times on a Mon, while the high of the week was also most likely to form on this day too with 27/100 occurrences
The rest of the days are generally similar, bar Tuesday lows & weekend highs
Percentage / Chance wise, it's obviously a no brainer in the fact that given the sample data of 100 weeks, that the % are simply a given of the numbers above