Weekly Global Macro Review 10/07/21
1/15
@hedgeye calls it #Quad2 reflation, but I rather prefer @jam_croissant’s colorful description of “endless gamma squeezes” oh so reminiscent of 🎉🍾🥳 like it’s 1999!
Let’s dig into the macro 🧮 for the week
1/15
@hedgeye calls it #Quad2 reflation, but I rather prefer @jam_croissant’s colorful description of “endless gamma squeezes” oh so reminiscent of 🎉🍾🥳 like it’s 1999!
Let’s dig into the macro 🧮 for the week
2/15
A 🕊 #FOMC on Wednesday and a 💪🏼 #NFP report on Friday with underlying wage #inflation of 4.9% y/y was enough to ignite a rally in the $UST market ↗️
WTF, you say?
A 🕊 #FOMC on Wednesday and a 💪🏼 #NFP report on Friday with underlying wage #inflation of 4.9% y/y was enough to ignite a rally in the $UST market ↗️
WTF, you say?
3/15
Indeed, the MOVE 66.30 ↘️ from 78.34 on Tuesday as the 10/2s curve remained 🥞 at 105
2Y .405 -9.6 bps
5Y 1.056 -12.9 bps
10Y 1.455 -10.6 bps
30Y 1.888 -5.1 bps
Chart: Despite a strong #NFP, the $TNX ↘️ -10.6 BPS to 1.455 and at critical support
Indeed, the MOVE 66.30 ↘️ from 78.34 on Tuesday as the 10/2s curve remained 🥞 at 105
2Y .405 -9.6 bps
5Y 1.056 -12.9 bps
10Y 1.455 -10.6 bps
30Y 1.888 -5.1 bps
Chart: Despite a strong #NFP, the $TNX ↘️ -10.6 BPS to 1.455 and at critical support
4/15
Bond ETFs rallied ↗️ led by convertibles and long duration with dividends paid on Friday
$CWB +1.37%
$TLT +1.22%
$LQD +1.21%
$BNDX +1.04%
$IEF +1.01%
$HYG +0.98%
$TIP +0.97%
$BND +0.7%
$IVOL +0.62%
Chart: With this move, $TLT is now ♉️ (t) +5.23% and (T) +1.15% but ⛅️
Bond ETFs rallied ↗️ led by convertibles and long duration with dividends paid on Friday
$CWB +1.37%
$TLT +1.22%
$LQD +1.21%
$BNDX +1.04%
$IEF +1.01%
$HYG +0.98%
$TIP +0.97%
$BND +0.7%
$IVOL +0.62%
Chart: With this move, $TLT is now ♉️ (t) +5.23% and (T) +1.15% but ⛅️
5/15
This move ↗️ in the bond market begs the question of whether #inflation has peaked 🔝?
Chart: $CRB -1.13% after hitting a cycle 🏔 the previous week
This move ↗️ in the bond market begs the question of whether #inflation has peaked 🔝?
Chart: $CRB -1.13% after hitting a cycle 🏔 the previous week
5a/15
Chart: $INFL -0.57% also 🏔 last week and ↘️ this week
Chart: $INFL -0.57% also 🏔 last week and ↘️ this week
6/15
Indeed, hydrocarbons 🛢⛽️ came under pressure ↘️ , even as OPEC+ refused JB’s request
$WTIC 81.27 -2.75% with $OVX 37.84
$BRENT 82.55 -2.17%
$GASO 2.32 -2.11%
$NATGAS 5.52 +1.66% 🔺
Chart: $WTIC remains ♉️ (t) +2.42% and (T) +19.02% BUT momentum 🎢 is rolling over
Indeed, hydrocarbons 🛢⛽️ came under pressure ↘️ , even as OPEC+ refused JB’s request
$WTIC 81.27 -2.75% with $OVX 37.84
$BRENT 82.55 -2.17%
$GASO 2.32 -2.11%
$NATGAS 5.52 +1.66% 🔺
Chart: $WTIC remains ♉️ (t) +2.42% and (T) +19.02% BUT momentum 🎢 is rolling over
7/15
Grains were ↔️ on the week with the big 3 ↘️
$WHEAT 676 -0.68%
$CORN 553 -2.68%
$SOYB 1204 -3.63%
$SUGAR 19.90 +3.27% 🔺
☕️ 204 -0.2%
Chart: $CORN flipped to neutral (T) -0.63% but remains ♉️ (t) +4.24%
Grains were ↔️ on the week with the big 3 ↘️
$WHEAT 676 -0.68%
$CORN 553 -2.68%
$SOYB 1204 -3.63%
$SUGAR 19.90 +3.27% 🔺
☕️ 204 -0.2%
Chart: $CORN flipped to neutral (T) -0.63% but remains ♉️ (t) +4.24%
8/15
While $COPPER was ↘️, precious metals traded ↘️
$COPPER 4.34 -0.69%
$SILVER 24.16 +0.88% with $VXSLV 29.84 🔺
$PLAT 1036 +1.48% ♉️
$GOLD 1817 +1.84% with $GVZ 16.64 🔺
Chart: $GOLD is now ♉️ (t) +3.38% and (T) +3.05%. Do with that as you may ⛅️
While $COPPER was ↘️, precious metals traded ↘️
$COPPER 4.34 -0.69%
$SILVER 24.16 +0.88% with $VXSLV 29.84 🔺
$PLAT 1036 +1.48% ♉️
$GOLD 1817 +1.84% with $GVZ 16.64 🔺
Chart: $GOLD is now ♉️ (t) +3.38% and (T) +3.05%. Do with that as you may ⛅️
9/15
With SPX Q321 company sales +18.85% and earnings +41.8% per @hedgeye, domestic equities 🚀 to new ATHs with small caps leading
$IWM 242 +6.03%
$COMPQ 15972 +3.05%
$SPX 4698 +2.0%
Chart: $IWM broke from a multi-month trading range with room to 🏃🏿♀️
With SPX Q321 company sales +18.85% and earnings +41.8% per @hedgeye, domestic equities 🚀 to new ATHs with small caps leading
$IWM 242 +6.03%
$COMPQ 15972 +3.05%
$SPX 4698 +2.0%
Chart: $IWM broke from a multi-month trading range with room to 🏃🏿♀️
10/15
Top US Sectors
$XLY +5.03%
$XLK +3.44%
$XLB +3.17%
$XLP +2.46%
Underperformers
$XLV -0.72%
$XLF -0.6%
$XLU +0.46%
Chart: $XLY ♉️ is +15.7% over (t) duration and +16.71% over past 3 months 🍋 #squeeze #parabola
Top US Sectors
$XLY +5.03%
$XLK +3.44%
$XLB +3.17%
$XLP +2.46%
Underperformers
$XLV -0.72%
$XLF -0.6%
$XLU +0.46%
Chart: $XLY ♉️ is +15.7% over (t) duration and +16.71% over past 3 months 🍋 #squeeze #parabola
10a/15
Chart: Retail 🏪 busted a move this week with the $XRT +7.85%
Chart: Retail 🏪 busted a move this week with the $XRT +7.85%
10b/15
Dark pool players ♥️♠️♦️♣️ bought the $FOMC with $DIX ↗️ to 47 but took 💰 on Friday, per @SqueezeMetrics 🍋
Chart link to $DIX: squeezemetrics.com/monitor/dix
Dark pool players ♥️♠️♦️♣️ bought the $FOMC with $DIX ↗️ to 47 but took 💰 on Friday, per @SqueezeMetrics 🍋
Chart link to $DIX: squeezemetrics.com/monitor/dix
11/15
Major international indices ↔️ with 🇫🇷↗️ and 🇭🇰↘️
$CAC 7041 +3.08%
$NIKK +2.49%
$DAX 16054 +2.33%
$KOSPI 2969 -0.05%
$SSEC 3492 -1.57%
$HSI 24870 -2.0%
Chart: $NIKK flipped to ♉️ (t) +5.57% and (T) +6.44%
Major international indices ↔️ with 🇫🇷↗️ and 🇭🇰↘️
$CAC 7041 +3.08%
$NIKK +2.49%
$DAX 16054 +2.33%
$KOSPI 2969 -0.05%
$SSEC 3492 -1.57%
$HSI 24870 -2.0%
Chart: $NIKK flipped to ♉️ (t) +5.57% and (T) +6.44%
12/15
Strongest internat’l ETFs
$EWJ +2.87%
$EWQ +2.77%
$EWW +2.73%
$EWI +2.69%
Weakest
$FXI -2.45%
$IDX -1.66%
$EDEN -0.58%
Strongest internat’l ETFs
$EWJ +2.87%
$EWQ +2.77%
$EWW +2.73%
$EWI +2.69%
Weakest
$FXI -2.45%
$IDX -1.66%
$EDEN -0.58%
13/15
Little change to the $USD on the surface of things, but ↗️ sharply vs. 🇦🇺 and 🇬🇧
$USD 94.207 +0.09%
$JPY 0.882 +0.52%
$CHF 1.096 +0.34%
$EUR 1.157 +0.07%
$CAD 0.803 -0.61%
$GBP 1.35 -1.4%
$AUD 0.74 -1.58%
Chart: A 🕊 BOE led to a steep ↘️ in the $GBP 🐻
Little change to the $USD on the surface of things, but ↗️ sharply vs. 🇦🇺 and 🇬🇧
$USD 94.207 +0.09%
$JPY 0.882 +0.52%
$CHF 1.096 +0.34%
$EUR 1.157 +0.07%
$CAD 0.803 -0.61%
$GBP 1.35 -1.4%
$AUD 0.74 -1.58%
Chart: A 🕊 BOE led to a steep ↘️ in the $GBP 🐻
14/15
New buy signals:
EWJ, EWW, INDA, EWD, XRT, XME, XLP, GLD, TLT
New sell signals
DBB, FXI
New buy signals:
EWJ, EWW, INDA, EWD, XRT, XME, XLP, GLD, TLT
New sell signals
DBB, FXI
15/15
Despite a #FOMC threat to take the 👊🥣 away, equity investors 🎉🍾🥳 like it’s 1999.
Bond investors sniffed an #inflation 🔝 and joined the 🎉🍾🥳
Some #MeanReversion expected this week - especially since the $DIX took 🤑 off the 🍽
Have a super profitable 💰 week!
Despite a #FOMC threat to take the 👊🥣 away, equity investors 🎉🍾🥳 like it’s 1999.
Bond investors sniffed an #inflation 🔝 and joined the 🎉🍾🥳
Some #MeanReversion expected this week - especially since the $DIX took 🤑 off the 🍽
Have a super profitable 💰 week!
Addendum
I do this work for myself but share it with #fintwit.
If you find value in it, please ♥️ and retweet.
After all, I’m a 🐒 like everyone else!
I do this work for myself but share it with #fintwit.
If you find value in it, please ♥️ and retweet.
After all, I’m a 🐒 like everyone else!
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
