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SBF

@SBF_FTX

9 Nov

@coinbase

1) Some notes from @coinbase's Q3 earnings!

s27.q4cdn.com/397450999/file…

2) First, how have they (and others!) done recently?

Well, they're the yellow line. They had a mediocre Q3, but they're probably in line for a good Q4!

3) So how did they do?

Well, they made $1.2b of revenue and $600m of EBITDA.

As always, that is nearly all retail; average retail fees were 1%. On the mobile app, average fees were probably higher, and that was probably where most of it came from.

Read 7 tweets

SBF

@SBF_FTX

4 Nov

1) On Hubris

2) "Two vast and trunkless legs of stone
Stand in the desert. . . . Near them, on the sand,
Half sunk a shattered visage lies...

And on the pedestal, these words appear:
My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings;
Look on my Works, ye Mighty, and despair!
Nothing beside remains."

3) Each year, the world stands witness to a giant company, felled by its own arrogance.

And each year the world averts its eyes as many more enterprises dream too small and believe too little.

Read 20 tweets

SBF

@SBF_FTX

4 Nov

@MLB

1) As the 2021 @MLB season comes to a close, some reflections from 21 years as a fan of the @SFGiants.

2) NOT BASEBALL ADVICE.

I suck at baseball.

@tackettzane

3) First of all, and unrelatedly -- _huge_ props to @tackettzane, Lou, and the MLB team for the partnership over the past year. We're extremely greatful for being able to work together!

Read 25 tweets

SBF

@SBF_FTX

23 Oct

1) Filing taxes isn't fun. As it turns out, for many people, it's also a bit of an odd exercise.

latimes.com/politics/story…

2) See, the government actually already has a lot of the relevant information.

But rather than make that available to the taxpayer, it sends a form asking you to enter your income, investments, etc.

Asking you to tell the IRS what it already knows.

3) The consequences of messing it up can be years of lawsuits and frustration.

Filing taxes is basically the government issuing you a test, judging how well you do, as it is actually collecting new information.

Read 8 tweets

SBF

@SBF_FTX

16 Oct

1) Don't let the drive for a narrative overcome your priors; aka the slow, sad decay of fivethirtyeight.

fivethirtyeight.com/features/justi…

2) This article is dumb.

It is centered around the observation that, this season, Lamar Jackson has been better on early downs while Justin Herbert has been better on late downs.

Why is this????

3) Sample sizes, mostly.

The sample sizes so far are pretty small -- around 60 3rd down attempts per team. The difference between the Ravens and Chargers completion % is about 14% (35% vs 49%); the standard deviation due to raw luck here is ~40%/sqrt(60)*sqrt(2) ~ 7%

Read 13 tweets

SBF

@SBF_FTX

15 Oct

1) another lazy, incoherent take on COVID: theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…

2) as with many, this one doesn’t bother attempting a cost benefit analysis.

If it did, it would maybe notice that the claimed annual damages from the flu are around $50b.

How about it’s proposed countermeasures?

3) well, US GDP is $20T, so we have 0.2% to play with—0.4% if you double it to include endemic COVID.

Maybe his proposed interventions would halve the risk—back to 0.2%.

That’s the equivalent of missing 1 day per year of work.

Read 8 tweets

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