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Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
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11 Nov, 5 tweets, 2 min read
1. Link to a TASS report on the Afghan resistance. The fact that Kremlin is posting this is meaningful IMO. The report quotes Ali Maysam Nazari, head of the foreign relations department of the Afghan National Resistance Front, which opposes the Taliban on many issues
2. but importantly TASS includes report Taliban are simply unlikely to ever stop their foreign terrorist affiliations. Also, the idea that I have personally advanced for a federal Afghan system is described as decentralization. With endemic corruption the closer the US funds
3. get to to the people in need in the provinces, the less likely they will be siphoned off to thieves in Kabul like Ghani. I once had idea of an ATM in every village. No Taliban and it gets money. Taliban, no money. But now we could apply a similar concept that deals with the
4. impending famine that says, no reprisals and girls in school and the region gets fed. If Taliban want to make it hell for the people then their best hope will be to rise up and remove the Taliban. IMO eventually, the Taliban will be driven from Kabul just line 2001.
5. Russia has a lot of reasons to not want a terrorist state to its south and even in the worst of times, the Russian have acted in their best interest even when that is consistent with US goals.

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More from @TimInHonolulu

Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
13 Nov
1. I've never seen this account before today and suddenly a long thread hits my timeline because so many of my Twitter colleagues follow it. My quick analysis of this account tells me it's likely a CCP account. May be Russian but it's slick state level propaganda IMO. Image
2. First the hook. The thread goes to lengths to describe what a great hero of democracy Merrick Garland is and how we should block anyone who says otherwise. I must admit, the former DOJ attorneys who are posting about Garland often don't match my view but I still value their
3. thoughts but this Hong Kong based marketing guy says to block them. Then as the thread progresses the account claims to have been on team Garland for a long time citing investigations that happened before Garland was even chosen but a quick look at his timeline showed
Read 9 tweets
Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
13 Nov
1. I see that @nytimes has published a story on the battle to defeat the last holdouts of #Daesh in Baghuz. Unlike the Times reporters, I reported on it in real time. Daesh was attacking and we stopped them overrunning the #SDF. Women were often #Daesh fighters and wore vests.
2. This report shows the reporters are clueless as to what this war was about and who combatants were. My guess is that by the end of the battle, Daesh had started to murder the Yazidis sex slaves so they could not be witnesses of the atrocities that Daesh committed since 2014
3. that Daesh and Turkey continue to commit while the @nytimes says nothing about it nor the slave markets in Turkey because Turkey tells @nytimes and the rest of the MSM what they can report.
Read 5 tweets
Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
13 Nov
1. An observation: In recent weeks we have witnessed a build-up of forces on the Euphrates southern bank in what appeared to be preparation to move on the Conoco and Omar gas and oil fields. We supported the SDF taking these fields, but that wasn't their idea. Controlling these
2. Sunni Arab areas is a heavy lift for the SDF that at the time was made up of Kurds and a modest percentage of Turkmen, Arabs and Syrian Christian forces. Unless we allow the AANES to develop the oil resource, that will require @USTreasury licenses due to the sanctions,
3. we have to realize that keeping the oil from Assad, Iran & their Russian backers is a challenge for the over-burdened SDF facing imminent attacks from Turkey on a large front. We need to grant someone a license to do business in Syria.
Read 7 tweets
Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
12 Nov
1. He's no Democratic Party sweetheart but has a good background and appears qualified but I need to look closer.

Wiki says:
On August 11, 2021, Nichols denied motions to dismiss lawsuits charging defamation filed by Dominion Voting
2. Systems against Sidney Powell (1:21-cv-00040 (CJN)), Rudy Giuliani (1:21-cv-00213 (CJN)), and Mike Lindell (1:21-cv-00445 (CJN)

On Sunday, September 27, 2020, Judge Nichols, granting in part the motion of plaintiffs TikTok and ByteDance, issued a preliminary
3. injunction partially enjoining (i.e., temporarily stopping) the Department of Commerce's implementation of President Donald Trump's August 6, 2020 Executive Order prohibiting certain transactions related to TikTok.
Read 6 tweets
Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
12 Nov
1. I remember spotting a lot a weird stuff during the 2016 cycle that was coming from the Carolinas. They were amplifying what looked like sock puppet generated disinformation. So, if they're rolling up the 2016 Russian op, I would expect a lot of this.
2. And the five year statute just ran on crimes like that sort of thing that were committed in the 2016 cycle. Closing in on the crew now would make sense and IMO was what Mueller and perhaps even Barr were hiding from TFG. I think the Project Veritas jurisdiction could be FARA.
3. It's also why I would not charge Bannon for contempt now. Why bother when you have him on crimes that could see him in prison for what amounts to life? If you want to know what prosecutor might be doing always look at the crimes and the calendar. TFG cheated in 2016.
Read 4 tweets
Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
12 Nov
1. #Putin is a global crisis actor. He moves troops and refugees like a little child with plastic toy soldiers to get the world to react. If he was going to attack and seize #Ukraine, he waited too long. Ukraine's military was a disaster in 2014 and could have been steamrolled.
2. Now, Ukraine has put together a large armored force and has a trained and equipped army with US Javelin anti-tank missiles that make short-work of the weak armor on the top of Russian tanks. Sure, Russian could defeat Ukraine fighting alone but at what cost? The Russian state
3. controlled press is not doing the kind of propaganda needed to prepare a disgruntled population for a major war against one of the last Russian speaking areas of the globe. IMO the Kremlin's focus is on #Belarus. I would not be surprised to see Russia invade it and some of the
Read 11 tweets

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