Potentially great news from the SE USA - the flu has apparently returned to college campuses, with outbreaks reported at FSU, Florida, Georgia, and FAMU.

During prior pandemics, the return of endemic flu signaled the end of the pandemic.
Throughout the SE, covid cases have plummeted off the late summer wave. At this point last year, cases were beginning to rise for Winter.

If cases remain low and the return of the flu is confirmed, the SE USA may indeed have joined Africa and much of Asia in endemicity.
The latest estimates (to be taken with a grain of salt) from Yale, Harvard, and Stanford are that >68% of the population in the SE has already been infected and recovered from covid, which may be enough to signal the transition to endemicity.

covidestim.org
Endemic covid in the SE doesn't mean that covid has "gone away" - rather, that it has simply faded into the background noise of all the other normal, seasonal, respiratory viruses which perpetually circulate.

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More from @Humble_Analysis

18 Oct
Japan: reported covid cases have plummeted by 98% in the last eight weeks.

No lockdowns, no changes in behavior, no new mandates, or mask requirements.

What could explain this sudden drop to the lowest case numbers since October 2020?
Apparently, experts and the media are baffled by Japan's "puzzling" and 'mysterious" success:
Could the answer be vaccines? Japan has now fully vaccinated 67% of their population, with 57% now at the magic 2+ weeks after second shot.

Compared to, say, the UK and Singapore, Japan has fewer people fully protected but more people recently protected.
Read 11 tweets
14 Oct
What is going on in Europe? Covid mortality during weeks 1-40 has more than doubled compared to last year, while excess mortality is actually lower this year.

Moreover, reported covid deaths are 2X higher than excess deaths:
One answer is that there have actually been FEWER deaths than expected in those 85+ this year, even though this age group accounts for over 1/4 of all covid deaths.

This is a perfect display of the "dry tinder" effect:
Conversely, though there are few covid deaths in this age bracket, excess mortality for those aged 15-44 has nearly tripled this year compared to last year.

Excess mortality for this group is not correlated with covid waves; it is a slow, steady drip of despair.
Read 5 tweets
13 Oct
The flu is back (multiple strains) - the Indian subcontinent from Pakistan through Bangladesh has seen the return of influenza alongside the rapid disappearance of covid-19. Image
Nearly 1/4 of the Earth's population reside within these four nations, each reporting high seroprevelance from natural infection and low rates of vaccination.

The evidence appears to indicate that natural infection can end a pandemic - but not vaccination (see Singapore). Image
None of these nations have fully vaccinated even 25% of their population and yet Covid is disappearing and the flu has returned.

It seems that the only way past a pandemic is through it - by natural infection. Image
Read 10 tweets
12 Oct
After apparently "eliminating" covid for nearly one year, Singapore is now reporting one of the highest case rates on Earth, bested only by the nations of the Caribbean and Balkans:
Singapore had been following a "zero covid" strategy but opted to begin re-opening once the vast majority of the population had been fully vaccinated.

Unfortunately, having 9 of 10 adults fully vaccinated has not prevented an "exponential" rise in transmission:
More disturbingly, a spike in fatalities has followed cases in Singapore, despite astronomical vaccination uptake:
Read 13 tweets
1 Oct
Lockdown going swimmingly in Australia...
Two MONTHS of lockdown. Police beating people in the streets. Every aspect of your life micromanaged by the world's dumbest people.

Luckily, it was all pointless.

reuters.com/world/asia-pac…
How long until Australia admits that zero covid was doomed to fail from the beginning? That destroying your society was all pain and no gain? Will the public health tyrants ever apologize and be held to account?

spiked-online.com/2021/09/29/zer…
Read 4 tweets
27 Sep
In the USA, the end of summer wave is receding rapidly in the South and West. Unfortunately, the autumn wave has now begun in the upper midwest.

These are the same states which experienced an autumn wave in 2020.

Oddly, the SEC states have cases falling fastest...
From Michigan to Montana, cases are rising in concert, just as they did in these same states this time last year.

In every one of these states, cases are higher this year than last year, despite widespread vaccination.
Hospitalizations are rising in each of these states, as well with the least vaccinated states are faster acceleration than the most vaccinated.

But, in all of these states, hospitalizations are higher this year than on this date in 2020:
Read 5 tweets

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