Potentially great news from the SE USA - the flu has apparently returned to college campuses, with outbreaks reported at FSU, Florida, Georgia, and FAMU.
During prior pandemics, the return of endemic flu signaled the end of the pandemic.
Throughout the SE, covid cases have plummeted off the late summer wave. At this point last year, cases were beginning to rise for Winter.
If cases remain low and the return of the flu is confirmed, the SE USA may indeed have joined Africa and much of Asia in endemicity.
The latest estimates (to be taken with a grain of salt) from Yale, Harvard, and Stanford are that >68% of the population in the SE has already been infected and recovered from covid, which may be enough to signal the transition to endemicity.
Endemic covid in the SE doesn't mean that covid has "gone away" - rather, that it has simply faded into the background noise of all the other normal, seasonal, respiratory viruses which perpetually circulate.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
What is going on in Europe? Covid mortality during weeks 1-40 has more than doubled compared to last year, while excess mortality is actually lower this year.
Moreover, reported covid deaths are 2X higher than excess deaths:
One answer is that there have actually been FEWER deaths than expected in those 85+ this year, even though this age group accounts for over 1/4 of all covid deaths.
This is a perfect display of the "dry tinder" effect:
Conversely, though there are few covid deaths in this age bracket, excess mortality for those aged 15-44 has nearly tripled this year compared to last year.
Excess mortality for this group is not correlated with covid waves; it is a slow, steady drip of despair.
The flu is back (multiple strains) - the Indian subcontinent from Pakistan through Bangladesh has seen the return of influenza alongside the rapid disappearance of covid-19.
Nearly 1/4 of the Earth's population reside within these four nations, each reporting high seroprevelance from natural infection and low rates of vaccination.
The evidence appears to indicate that natural infection can end a pandemic - but not vaccination (see Singapore).
None of these nations have fully vaccinated even 25% of their population and yet Covid is disappearing and the flu has returned.
It seems that the only way past a pandemic is through it - by natural infection.
After apparently "eliminating" covid for nearly one year, Singapore is now reporting one of the highest case rates on Earth, bested only by the nations of the Caribbean and Balkans:
Singapore had been following a "zero covid" strategy but opted to begin re-opening once the vast majority of the population had been fully vaccinated.
Unfortunately, having 9 of 10 adults fully vaccinated has not prevented an "exponential" rise in transmission:
More disturbingly, a spike in fatalities has followed cases in Singapore, despite astronomical vaccination uptake:
How long until Australia admits that zero covid was doomed to fail from the beginning? That destroying your society was all pain and no gain? Will the public health tyrants ever apologize and be held to account?