What is going on in Europe? Covid mortality during weeks 1-40 has more than doubled compared to last year, while excess mortality is actually lower this year.
Moreover, reported covid deaths are 2X higher than excess deaths:
One answer is that there have actually been FEWER deaths than expected in those 85+ this year, even though this age group accounts for over 1/4 of all covid deaths.
This is a perfect display of the "dry tinder" effect:
Conversely, though there are few covid deaths in this age bracket, excess mortality for those aged 15-44 has nearly tripled this year compared to last year.
Excess mortality for this group is not correlated with covid waves; it is a slow, steady drip of despair.
Throughout the region covered by euromomo, excess deaths are accelerating in 2021 vs. 2020 - except for those most impact by covid (the elderly).
European excess deaths in 2021 are the price of panic, not the toll of covid.
What happens if you don't panic, despite multiple waves of covid killing thousands of elderly citizens?
You can ZERO cumulative excess mortality from 2019-2021.
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The flu is back (multiple strains) - the Indian subcontinent from Pakistan through Bangladesh has seen the return of influenza alongside the rapid disappearance of covid-19.
Nearly 1/4 of the Earth's population reside within these four nations, each reporting high seroprevelance from natural infection and low rates of vaccination.
The evidence appears to indicate that natural infection can end a pandemic - but not vaccination (see Singapore).
None of these nations have fully vaccinated even 25% of their population and yet Covid is disappearing and the flu has returned.
It seems that the only way past a pandemic is through it - by natural infection.
After apparently "eliminating" covid for nearly one year, Singapore is now reporting one of the highest case rates on Earth, bested only by the nations of the Caribbean and Balkans:
Singapore had been following a "zero covid" strategy but opted to begin re-opening once the vast majority of the population had been fully vaccinated.
Unfortunately, having 9 of 10 adults fully vaccinated has not prevented an "exponential" rise in transmission:
More disturbingly, a spike in fatalities has followed cases in Singapore, despite astronomical vaccination uptake:
How long until Australia admits that zero covid was doomed to fail from the beginning? That destroying your society was all pain and no gain? Will the public health tyrants ever apologize and be held to account?
Euromomo.eu reports weekly "excess" mortality in 23 European nations; through Week 36 of 2021, there has been no significant excess for those under 45 years of age:
For those over 75, deaths were dramatically below normal in 2019 leading to excess deaths in 2020.
For those over 85, deaths in 2021 YTD are now below normal (compare to 2017/2018).
The ~30% of covid deaths driven by those >85 seems to have not created any excess mortality.
For those 45-74 in Europe, 2021 has seen significantly more excess deaths than 2020 (through Week 36), despite widespread vaccination campaigns.
This is especially true for 45-64, where 2020 deaths were on par with 2018.
Why is this year worse than last year for these cohorts?