Thread by @chrischirp

THREAD on child deaths from Covid:

Last week a paper came out reporting 25 deaths in 0-17 yr olds in England from Mar 2020 - Feb 2021.
nature.com/articles/s4159…

19 had an underlying health condition prompting headlines like these...

This is my view on child deaths & covid 1/10

Firstly I don't doubt the numbers.

We can compare them directly to ONS weekly death registrations with Covid on death certificate, which come in 5 yr age increments.

Drs doing death certs consider v carefully what are the contributing factors. 2/10

ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…

The directly comparable age ranges we have are 0-14 years from ONS and from the paper.

The authors found 16 deaths in 0-14 yr olds from 1 March 2020 - 28 Feb 2021.

For same period, ONS reported 12 deaths. Note that all ONS child deaths in that year were in England. 3/10

So if anything ONS was an underestimate in 1st year.

This could be because in the early months, the late Covid complication of Paediatric Inflammatory Multisystem Syndrome (PIMS-TS) was not well recognised?

So how reassuring are these low numbers in year 1? 4/10

Well, during year 1, many public health measures were in place in and out of schools, inc 3 lockdowns. Schools were often shut.

This was a pre-Delta era, when Covid was less infectious.

Now restrictions have mostly gone. Schools are open with hardly any mitigations. 5/10

And the consequences are clear to see from ONS registrations.

Since 1 Mar 2021, ONS recorded another 19 0-14 yr old deaths from Covid (inc 1 in Wales).

Most recent week will be an underestimate as death certification can take a while. It is already highest week so far. 6/10

So yes, children are much much less likely to die from Covid than adults. But tragically, it can still happen.

From comparison with the paper, we know ONS is accurate & not an overestimate.

The situation pre Mar 2021 has very little in common with situation *now*. 7/10

Covid is rampaging through schools & is taking its toll in children - in 1000s new cases of long covid, in over 6,000 hospital admissions with Covid in under 18s since March & 19 deaths in 0-14 yr olds.

SAGE reported that 80% of child admissions with Covid are due to Covid. 8/10

We should *not* be taking the Nature Medicines paper as licence to let Covid infect children freely - especially not with vax for 12+ & close (maybe!) in 5-11 yr olds.

Schools must be open but with quicker vax, masks in secondary schools, CO2 monitors & HEPA filters etc
9/10

Finally, media focus on "healthy child" deaths is just wrong as if deaths in vulnerable kids matter less.

Deaths also more likely in non-white children.

Vulnerable kids are in school & can't shield. Lower transmission rates *protect them*. We should be demanding it. 10/10

PS others have covered these issues before me!

e.g.

https://twitter.com/jneill/status/1459603587672195077?s=20

https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1459322983156232192?s=20

PPS you can do a more direct comparison using ONS individual year data but it's only released monthly. I'll do that afetr next release on 23rd Nov.