Thread by @chrischirp

🧵The line from Boris Johnson that Europe's Covid wave might come here is *arrant nonsense* - just convenient cover if cases climb this winter.

We've been having this wave ever since end of June.

It's driven here - as elsewhere in Europe - by local context not importation 1/5

National Covid trajectory is determined by combo of:
1. public health measures (masks, ventilation, which venues are open, vax passports, testing, isolation etc) & behaviours,
2. vax rates (inc boosters)
3. levels of prev immunity

If it's spreading, combo not enough. 2/5

England relied basically on 2 since June and it's not been enough. We've now got 2 and (sadly!) 3 & it's still not bring cases down.

E Europe has nowhere near enough 2 (hence high deaths too).

Germany & Austria are lower on 2 and 3. NL, Belgium stopped 1 (esp in schools). 3/5

Spain & Portugal have 1 and v high 2. Spain has high 3 too - Only Spain still doing OK.

But as weather & behaviour changes, you will need to tweak 1 (measures) and increase 2 (vax inc booster) to keep on top of cases. 4/5

We still have among highest covid rates in Europe. Their "wave" is individual to each country's combo of measures, vax & prev immunity.

Assuming no new variant, our winter Covid path depends on us & what WE choose to do as a country.

Do not let the govt pretend otherwise. 5/5