Quick THREAD on cases & admissions in England & schools...
Cases fell in England for about 2 weeks but started going up again last week.
Some of this increase will reflect more testing again since half term (and positivity rates have fallen a little). 1/9
Cases fell in England for about 2 weeks but started going up again last week.
Some of this increase will reflect more testing again since half term (and positivity rates have fallen a little). 1/9
Reductions were driven by steep drops in school age kids (esp 10-14 yrs), which started week before half term.
Apart from less testing, chains of transmission were broken with continued fall week after half term.
Recent uptick tho, esp 5-9 unvaxxed.
60+ fall, boosters? 2/9
Apart from less testing, chains of transmission were broken with continued fall week after half term.
Recent uptick tho, esp 5-9 unvaxxed.
60+ fall, boosters? 2/9
Plausible that 10 days is approx the time it takes for new chains of transmission in school to take hold & drive cases up again. Despite high prev infections.
Leicestershire schools had term & half term week earlier & they are seeing sustained increases in school kids again 3/9
Leicestershire schools had term & half term week earlier & they are seeing sustained increases in school kids again 3/9
There are also early signs of increase in their parents' generation 30-59 yr olds (same plot below). but not in twenty-something or 60+ : hopefully boosters in latter working but also takes longer to spread from school kids to older generations. 4/9
Leicestershire only saw one big peak in late Sept. The double England peak is probably a sign of moving localised peaks and the Immensa massive spike in SW in Oct.
Scotland too had earlier start to term & earlier half term. So what is happening there? 5/9
Scotland too had earlier start to term & earlier half term. So what is happening there? 5/9
Big single peak in Sept (but lower than England max: 1400 vs 1900/100k/wk) but then drop & plateau.
Half term decline, then flat but now under 15 cases rising again along with 15-44 yrs. Falls in 65+
Scotland has masks in 2ndry schools & much higher teen vax than England. 6/9
Half term decline, then flat but now under 15 cases rising again along with 15-44 yrs. Falls in 65+
Scotland has masks in 2ndry schools & much higher teen vax than England. 6/9
In terms of admissions in England, they fell but have recently increased a bit over last few days.
However, this seems mainly from 18-64 yr olds - we have seen sustained falled in 65+, hopefully booster induced! 7/9
However, this seems mainly from 18-64 yr olds - we have seen sustained falled in 65+, hopefully booster induced! 7/9
So I think we are likely to see another peak in school aged children in England this half term - *hopefully* lower than Oct with teen vax & prev immunity. But hard for primary school kids.
Hopefully over 60s boosters will help keep admissions & deaths from rising v much BUT 8/9
Hopefully over 60s boosters will help keep admissions & deaths from rising v much BUT 8/9
I don't think it's ok to mass infect kids (see e.g. this thread from yesterday
and also likely their parents will get infected too as their vax immunity wanes and before they are eligible for booster (for many, 6 months is end Dec/early Jan). 9/9
https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1459943976144973835?s=20)
and also likely their parents will get infected too as their vax immunity wanes and before they are eligible for booster (for many, 6 months is end Dec/early Jan). 9/9
PS see also this thread from @ProfColinDavis yesterday making v similar points.
https://twitter.com/ProfColinDavis/status/1459934046566420491?s=20
PPS and also we shouldn't be ok with static admissions ~ 700-800 a day- firstly for the people so sick with Covid and secondly for the NHS which is serious trouble.
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