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Prof Norman Fenton Profile picture
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14 Nov, 5 tweets, 2 min read
1. New blog post with .@MartinNeil9: Is vaccine efficacy a statistical illusion? Turns out that, simply by delayed reporting of deaths by 1 week, it's inevitable a placebo will appear to reduce mortality in those who receive it compared to those who don't
probabilityandlaw.blogspot.com/2021/11/is-vac…
2. Here's the graph that results from a one week delay in reporting deaths in a simple example where both the 'vaxxed' and the 'unvaxxed' actually have the same constant mortality rate of 15 deaths per 100K people
3. And here's the graph from the latest ONS report on mortality by vaxx status. Compares non-covid mortality rates of vaxxed v unvaxxed. Notice the similarities with placebo example. Suggests it's a statistical illusion unexplainable by any real impact of vaxx on mortality rates
4. The blog post also demonstrates how it might be close to impossible to pick up a vaxx side effect signal even if it was killing far more than it saves. Instead the illusion is created of vaxx efficacy.
5 Here's link to new tweet showing 60-second video in Excel of the 1-week shift

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Prof Norman Fenton Profile picture
4 Nov
1. Sorry I had to delete the important thread I just put up as I said "consistent underestimation of the proportion of the population vaccinated" when it should have been "consistent underestimation of the proportion of the population UNVACCINATED". Here is the correct version .
2. Our ongoing analysis of the ONS Nov 1 Deaths by Vacc Status Report is showing consistent underestimation of the proportion of the population unvaccinated. Example: Look at this plot of mortality rate for non-Covid deaths (age category 60-69) during the summer weeks...
3. The fact the mortality rates for vacced and unvacced are so different makes no sense. Assuming the vacc is doing no harm, these plots should be similar. Only reasonable possible explanation is that the proportion of the population unvaccinated is underestimated.
Read 6 tweets
Prof Norman Fenton Profile picture
2 Nov
1. As we requested, the ONS Nov 1 Deaths by Vacc Status Report now includes age categorised all-cause death numbers by vacc status. But, while it has data for age categories 60-69, 70-79 and 80+, there's only a single category of data for the age group 10-59.
2. In this ‘youngest’ age group all-cause mortality rate is currently around twice as high for those who've had at least one dose of vacc compared to unvacced. But as it includes such a wide age range it's still possible this extremely disturbing statistic is confounded by age
3. Where age categories are narrower, 60-69, 70-79 and 80+, age confounding effects are somewhat mitigated, and the data suggest there's lower all-cause mortality in vacced compared to unvacced in each of those age categories. BUT.....
Read 7 tweets
Prof Norman Fenton Profile picture
20 Oct
1/5. To calculate how unlikely it is to see the cluster of pulmonary haemorrhage deaths in new borns - as discussed in the thread by Scott Mclachlan - it's not enough just to consider the probability of it happening at a single hospital in 1 month ....
2/5. We have to consider the probability it will happen at at least one hospital somewhere in the UK in one month sometime during, say, a year. Explanation and calculation are in this (3-minute) video
3/5. If it was a cluster of 4 it would be unlikely in a single hospital (about 0.07%, i.e. 1 in 143 chance) but very likely (81% chance) of happening somewhere in a year. But what if we observe a cluster of 8 in the same hospital?
Read 5 tweets
Prof Norman Fenton Profile picture
15 Sep
3. But the conclusions of such studies are also confounded by failing to consider non-Covid deaths; this overestimate the safety of the vaccine if there were serious adverse reactions. In fact multiple confounding factors will overestimate vaccine effectiveness.
4. One factor is how/whether a person is classified as a Covid ‘case’, Covid ‘hospitalization’ & Covid ‘death’. These can differ between vacc & unvaccinated. The unvaccinated who die ‘with’ as opposed to ‘from’ Covid are more likely to be classified as Covid deaths.
5. Another critical factor is how/whether a person is classified as ‘vaccinated’. Any person testing positive for Covid or dying of any cause within 14 days of their second dose is now classified by the CDC as ‘unvaccinated’
Read 14 tweets
Prof Norman Fenton Profile picture
8 Sep
1. This letter in the latest issue of the American Journal of Therapeutics is a summary of our analysis. Even after removing the contraversial Elgazzar study the results still support ivermectin being an effective treatment for #Covid_19. ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
2. There are also letters on the same subject by Bryant et al ... ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
3. ..and by Marik and @PierreKory ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
Read 5 tweets
Prof Norman Fenton Profile picture
26 Aug
1. Alexander asks a very good question which requires a thread to answer.
2. When #COVID19 first struck in 2020 we applied causal probabilistic models to better understand & explain the data (it's what we do) & were influenced only by academic findings. In fact, we initially concluded that widespread random testing was needed theconversation.com/coronavirus-co…
3. We published articles in peer reviewed journals about this and related issues on infection and fatality rates that were not considered 'contraversial' doi.org/10.1080/136698…
Read 10 tweets

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