Thread by @therealarod1984

11/14 Texas C19 Update

THREAD:

* Declines have flattened across the board
* Start of a Winter wave appears imminent but size of the wave is TBD
* El Paso, Amarillo increasing, likely New Mexico related
* San Antonio, Houston still declining
* Rest of the state is flat

1/n
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https://twitter.com/therealarod1984/status/1458909435561193483

11/14 Testing

* Tests are filed by date of specimen collection, < 7-8 days old is incomplete
* Positivity rate continues slow decline but flattening, 4.22% as of 11/4
* Testing flattening ~ 80K / day
* Positive Test 7DMA ~ 3500
* Covidestim Rt still very low at 0.60

2/n
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11/14 - Cases

* Cases 7DMA is flat. Lines up with the the more recent, incomplete testing numbers per 2/n
* Cases are batched by date received by the county
* 7DMA of 2403 cases, rising 5% week over week
* Were at that point where the Winter Wave started last year

3/n
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11/14 Hospitalizations - Part 1

* Covid Admits 7DMA starting to rise. 337 per day 7DMA, up 4.5% Week over Week
* % of beds tagged as Covid holding in the 4.2% range, total Covid census of 2693 beds
* 7DMA WoW rate of decline slowing to 11.7%
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covid-texas.csullender.com
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4/n
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11/14 Hospitalizations - Part 2

* ICU portion of the bed census is down to 937
* ELP & AMA likely leading the way due to proximity to New Mexico. Admits in both areas showing increase
* Will watch numbers for the rest of the state in coming days

5/n
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11/14 Conclusion

* All the metrics are flat. Covid Hospital Admissions are showing a slight increase
* I don't think the question is whether there will be a winter wave, but how big will it be
* My thoughts are it shouldn't be near as big as last year, but we will see

6/end