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16 Nov, 4 tweets, 1 min read
OSHA Mandate going to the Sixth Circuit is good news it appears.

11 GOP judges and 5 Dems in active service, senior judges are 10-3 GOP. All the activity I'm seeing on the Twitter verse from both sides say this court is pretty red.
.
6th Circuit covers Tennessee, Kentucky, Ohio, and Michigan FYI
"The Sixth Circuit is a favorable draw for mandate challengers, one of the best they could have hoped for...many Trump-appointed judges skeptical of broad assertions of agency authority..." said Sean Marotta, a lawyer at Hogan Lovells who follows multi-circuit issues closely.
The 6th Circuit is 4th in ratio of R vs D appointed judges out of 12 Circuits. But it depends on which judges are selected from their roster. Which I believe is also a Lottery.

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More from @therealarod1984

therealarod1984 Profile picture
16 Nov
The 1) lawsuit and 2) preliminary injunction filed by 12 states in W. Louisiana yesterday against CMS - the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services

RE: Biden administration’s overreaching COVID-19 vaccine mandate for healthcare workers

THREAD 1/n

dojmt.gov/attorney-gener…
What is striking about this motion for preliminary injunction (basically a Stay), is how much of the language of the 5th Circuit's Stay vs OSHA is quoted.

Also I didn't realize CMS was attempting to use the Social Security Act as the legal justification for this Mandate.

2/n
 .
Overview of reasons why a STAY must be granted:

* At odds with the SSA
* Exceeds CMS's statutory authority
* Violates the SSA's prohibition on control of healthcare workers
* Violates the
** Spending Clause
** Anti-Commandeering Doctrine
** 10th Amendment

3/n
Read 18 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
15 Nov
11/14 Texas C19 Update

THREAD:

* Declines have flattened across the board
* Start of a Winter wave appears imminent but size of the wave is TBD
* El Paso, Amarillo increasing, likely New Mexico related
* San Antonio, Houston still declining
* Rest of the state is flat

1/n
 .
11/14 Testing

* Tests are filed by date of specimen collection, < 7-8 days old is incomplete
* Positivity rate continues slow decline but flattening, 4.22% as of 11/4
* Testing flattening ~ 80K / day
* Positive Test 7DMA ~ 3500
* Covidestim Rt still very low at 0.60

2/n
 . ImageImageImageImage
11/14 - Cases

* Cases 7DMA is flat. Lines up with the the more recent, incomplete testing numbers per 2/n
* Cases are batched by date received by the county
* 7DMA of 2403 cases, rising 5% week over week
* Were at that point where the Winter Wave started last year

3/n
 . ImageImageImage
Read 6 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
13 Nov
The 5th Circuit Court of Appeals not only Stayed OSHA's mandate, they destroyed it, and laid down the legal groundwork for it to be easily struck down.

Might take a couple of days, but I'll go through the ruling page by page.

THREAD

1/n
dl.airtable.com/.attachments/d…
The ruling by Judge Engelhardt begins by going through the rarity and difficulty of OSHA using the Emergency Temporary Standard that they are utilizing for this Mandate. In 50 years of history, 10 ETSs have been issued, and only 1 survived.

2/n
 .
To grant a Stay, a court considers 4 factors. In this case, each of these factors favor a stay. The next several pages will delve into the four factors, starting with whether the challenge to the Mandate is likely to succeed.

3/n
Read 24 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
11 Nov
11/11 Texas C19 Update

THREAD:

* Declines are slowing/flattening
* Winter wave watch continues
* Panhandle appears to be very flat to slowing rising
* El Paso rise is slowing somewhat
* Southern half of state continues steep decline

1/n
 .
11/11 Testing

* Remember, tests are filed by date of specimen collection
* Anything < 7-8 days old is incomplete
* Pos% continues decline, 4.39% as of 11/1
* Testing declines to @ 574K per week as of 11/1
* Positive Test 7DMA below 3600 per day
* Covidestim Rt - 0.58

2/n ImageImageImageImage
11/11 - Cases

* Cases have flattened out in the past few days
* Looking at the more recent, incomplete testing numbers per 2/n, not seeing same yet
* Cases are batched by date received by the county
* 7DMA of 2384 cases, declining 5% week over week
* Will watch

3/n
 . ImageImageImage
Read 7 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
8 Nov
11/8 Texas C19 Update

THREAD:

* No stopping the declines except;
* El Paso showing a bump. Is it leading the way for a winter wave for the 2nd straight year?

1/n
 .
11/8 Indicators

* Total positivity rate continues decline, 4.60% as of 10/29, as a large batch of negative tests hit yesterday
* Testing peaked 9/13 @ 1.12M tests/week. As of 10/29, down to @ 587K per week
* Positive Test 7DMA below 3900 per day
* Covidestim Rt - 0.56

2/n
 . ImageImageImageImage
11/8 - Cases

* As positive tests continue to decline, so do cases
* 7DMA of 2335 cases, declining 16% week over week.
* A very small rise from this very low number over the weekend, we will watch to see if that continues.

3/n
 . ImageImageImage
Read 6 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
5 Nov
11/4 Texas C19 Update

THREAD:

* Declines continue across the board - testing, positives, cases, hospital admits, hospital usage and ICU
* Watching for the start of a winter wave.

1/n
 .
11/1 Indicators

* Total positivity rate continues slow decline, as of 10/25 at 5.22%, should continue
* Testing peaked 9/13 @ 1.12M tests/week. As of 10/25, down to @ 567K per week, decline of nearly 50%
* Positive Test 7DMA below 4300 per day
* Covidestim Rt - 0.61

2/n
 .
11/4 - Cases

* As positive tests continue to decline, so do cases
* 7DMA of 2509 cases, declining 17% week over week
* Cases lower than any point in the comparable 2020 wave, despite double the testing
* Cases had flattened in 2020 & were about to rise. Not so right now

3/n
 .
Read 6 tweets

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