What is striking about this motion for preliminary injunction (basically a Stay), is how much of the language of the 5th Circuit's Stay vs OSHA is quoted.
Also I didn't realize CMS was attempting to use the Social Security Act as the legal justification for this Mandate.
2/n .
Overview of reasons why a STAY must be granted:
* At odds with the SSA
* Exceeds CMS's statutory authority
* Violates the SSA's prohibition on control of healthcare workers
* Violates the
** Spending Clause
** Anti-Commandeering Doctrine
** 10th Amendment
3/n
Healthcare will be affected in 3 ways:
* Healthcare companies will lose federal funding and be subject to fines
* As many as 2.4 million Healthcare workers may lose their livelihoods
* Worker shortages will cause many of the most vulnerable to lose access to Healthcare
4/n
Remember, this is the Plantiff's request for a "Stay" filed yesterday. This is not the ruling on that request.
Next the Plantiffs go through the 4 traditional criteria for a Stay and how this case merits one
5/n
Plantiff's argument that CMS issued the Mandate without following the required processes.
Also commentary on CMS' claim that this is an emergency declaration, using the same language from the 5th circuit OSHA - "it waited almost 2 months" after Biden's directive
6/n .
Plantiff's argument that
* The CMS Mandate is beyond the Executive's authority, the authority lies with Congress
* Never has the CMS relied upon its Social Security Act authority to mandate healthcare worker vaccination
7/n
Plantiff's argument that the Social Security Act grants no such authority to CMS
* SSA only authorizes "such regulations as many necessary to carry out administration"
* Other statutes cited by CMS only grant authority to govern standards & day-to-day aspects of facilities
8/n
Plantiff's argument regarding the constitutional issues the CMS Mandate raises:
* Reference to the 5th Circuit OSHA Stay - that power to mandate vaccination falls to the states
* The SSA used in this way would confer limitless, unfettered power to the Executive Branch
9/n
Plantiff's argument regarding the Mandate violating sections of the Social Security Act:
* Requires consultation with the States before a rule is issued which CMS concedes it did not do
* Violates Title 18 which prohibits control over the selection/tenure of health workers
10/n
Plaintiff's argument that the Mandate is Arbitrary & Capricious:
* it ignores the SSA's focus on patient wellbeing rather than the health of providers.
* the a list of multiple real examples from health care providers, of possible impacts if the mandate goes through
11/n
Plaintiff's additional arguments that the Mandate is Arbitrary:
* Arbitrarily rejected alternatives such as periodic C19 testing
* Goes against previous opposition to mandates by both CMS & Biden
* Its blatant goal is simply to increase Vaccine uptake
12/n
Plaintiff's final arguments that the Mandate is Arbitrary:
* it ignores the State's reliance on Medicare and Medicaid and the potential harm to citizens and workers
* Its scope is too broad, affecting facilities not related to CMS's goal of protecting elderly & infirm
13/n
Plaintiff's arguments that the Mandate violates the Spending Clause
* Congress must give clear notice that mandates are a condition to accept federal funds
* Noncompliance with the Mandate threatens a large portion of the States budgets, and leaves States with no choice
14/n
Plaintiff's argument that the Mandate violates the 10th Amendment and he Anti-Commandeering Doctrine
Interesting. Basically saying that the Feds will be forcing the states to enforce the Mandate for them. Dragooning/commandeering them in acting as Mandate enforcement.
15/n
Plaintiff argument that States and Citizens will suffer irreparable harm without a Stay
* Irreparable economic injuries
* Loss of State sovereignty under the Commerce Clause
* Injuries to citizens either losing livelihoods or their medical freedom
16/n .
Finally the argument from the Plantiffs that the Injunction would not harm the Defendents or Disserve the Public Interest.
Request for the court to grant the motion for a Preliminary Injunction (Stay)
17/n .
If anything the CMS Mandate is a bigger stretch and less flexible than the OHSA mandate. Huge stretch trying to fit this into the Social Security Act & no out in regards to choosing a testing/masking option.
Unless Upside Down world appears, a Stay will be granted IMHO.
18/end
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OSHA Mandate going to the Sixth Circuit is good news it appears.
11 GOP judges and 5 Dems in active service, senior judges are 10-3 GOP. All the activity I'm seeing on the Twitter verse from both sides say this court is pretty red.
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6th Circuit covers Tennessee, Kentucky, Ohio, and Michigan FYI
"The Sixth Circuit is a favorable draw for mandate challengers, one of the best they could have hoped for...many Trump-appointed judges skeptical of broad assertions of agency authority..." said Sean Marotta, a lawyer at Hogan Lovells who follows multi-circuit issues closely.
* Declines have flattened across the board
* Start of a Winter wave appears imminent but size of the wave is TBD
* El Paso, Amarillo increasing, likely New Mexico related
* San Antonio, Houston still declining
* Rest of the state is flat
* Tests are filed by date of specimen collection, < 7-8 days old is incomplete
* Positivity rate continues slow decline but flattening, 4.22% as of 11/4
* Testing flattening ~ 80K / day
* Positive Test 7DMA ~ 3500
* Covidestim Rt still very low at 0.60
2/n .
11/14 - Cases
* Cases 7DMA is flat. Lines up with the the more recent, incomplete testing numbers per 2/n
* Cases are batched by date received by the county
* 7DMA of 2403 cases, rising 5% week over week
* Were at that point where the Winter Wave started last year
The 5th Circuit Court of Appeals not only Stayed OSHA's mandate, they destroyed it, and laid down the legal groundwork for it to be easily struck down.
Might take a couple of days, but I'll go through the ruling page by page.
The ruling by Judge Engelhardt begins by going through the rarity and difficulty of OSHA using the Emergency Temporary Standard that they are utilizing for this Mandate. In 50 years of history, 10 ETSs have been issued, and only 1 survived.
2/n .
To grant a Stay, a court considers 4 factors. In this case, each of these factors favor a stay. The next several pages will delve into the four factors, starting with whether the challenge to the Mandate is likely to succeed.
* Declines are slowing/flattening
* Winter wave watch continues
* Panhandle appears to be very flat to slowing rising
* El Paso rise is slowing somewhat
* Southern half of state continues steep decline
* Remember, tests are filed by date of specimen collection
* Anything < 7-8 days old is incomplete
* Pos% continues decline, 4.39% as of 11/1
* Testing declines to @ 574K per week as of 11/1
* Positive Test 7DMA below 3600 per day
* Covidestim Rt - 0.58
2/n
11/11 - Cases
* Cases have flattened out in the past few days
* Looking at the more recent, incomplete testing numbers per 2/n, not seeing same yet
* Cases are batched by date received by the county
* 7DMA of 2384 cases, declining 5% week over week
* Will watch
* Total positivity rate continues decline, 4.60% as of 10/29, as a large batch of negative tests hit yesterday
* Testing peaked 9/13 @ 1.12M tests/week. As of 10/29, down to @ 587K per week
* Positive Test 7DMA below 3900 per day
* Covidestim Rt - 0.56
2/n .
11/8 - Cases
* As positive tests continue to decline, so do cases
* 7DMA of 2335 cases, declining 16% week over week.
* A very small rise from this very low number over the weekend, we will watch to see if that continues.
* Total positivity rate continues slow decline, as of 10/25 at 5.22%, should continue
* Testing peaked 9/13 @ 1.12M tests/week. As of 10/25, down to @ 567K per week, decline of nearly 50%
* Positive Test 7DMA below 4300 per day
* Covidestim Rt - 0.61
2/n .
11/4 - Cases
* As positive tests continue to decline, so do cases
* 7DMA of 2509 cases, declining 17% week over week
* Cases lower than any point in the comparable 2020 wave, despite double the testing
* Cases had flattened in 2020 & were about to rise. Not so right now