Interesting messaging here by @NickTriggle - the devastation of the NHS is inevitable, and there isn't anything we can do to stop what's happening now- long A&E waits, and people dying in ambulances. Manufactured inevitability is how we normalise death. bbc.co.uk/news/health-59…
And it is manufactured! Yes, the NHS has been struggling for years (deliberate underfunding by the Tories), but if we haven't had such long waiting times for A&E In the past, or all ambulances in England on black alert..
Causes- COVID-19 is an important cause- not just current, but the fact that an uncontrolled pandemic has meant people with other conditions waiting for routine care for longer, and now needing emergency care as well. This is all attributable to poor handling of the pandemic.
So please don't 'this isn't really covid'. It has a lot to do with govt policy on COVID-19 - we're also hugely understaffed, and bed availability is a hugely misleading statistic, because COVID-19 means many wards can't take on more patients if they have an infected person.
Our healthcare force is burnt out and devastated being hung out to dry for >18 months. They're exhausted, with many suffering with complex PTSD related to what they've been forced to handle without respite for >18 months.
Is this inevitable? Absolutely not. The govt could take measures to reduce COVID-19 now- which form a high proportion of all ICU patients. This would free up some capacity for others. NHS staff also get ill with COVID-19, which further reduces capacity.
NHS staff have the highest rates of long COVID across all occupations.Maybe next time when you do a piece, speak with frontline staff who are struggling ask them what the solutions should be rather than suggesting this is inevitable.
Your piece is just insulting to frontline workers screaming for action. Even simple things like mask mandates and school mitigations and vaccination of kids would make a huge difference. But we just sit and do nothing. Because media portrays this as 'inevitable'
Remember- it could be any of us or our loved ones waiting for hours for an ambulance, or care, with a life threatening emergency- and suffering or dying as a result. People dying while waiting for care is never acceptable, or inevitable.
For those who want to understand how 'not normal' the current situation is- we've had 18 wks of excess deaths over the 5-year average. >20,000 deaths since July '21, the majority, directly due to COVID-19, but others that are likely due to NHS pressures.
A quick look at what's happening in at least some parts of Western Europe where cases are surging.
Seems to be a combination of:
-school related surges due to lack of mitigations
-premature easing of restrictions
-over-reliance on vaccines, lack of multi-layered strategies
🧵
1) Austria: There's no doubt that children and young people are driving the pandemic. Austria removed masks from within classrooms when schools re-opened in Sept replacing this with a 3x wkly testing.
They also relaxed rules on quarantine, exempting vaccinated contacts & shortening quarantine with test and release on the 5th day for quarantine of contacts. There was supposed to be focus on better ventilation and air-purification but this doesn't seem to have materialised.
Ok, so worth really looking closely at the @NatureMedicine paper that's been cited widely on the impact of COVID-19 on children's deaths.
This has several key limitations, and should not be cited in the way it is being🧵
The analysis is between March '20-Feb '21. Why is this important:
-delta was not dominant
-there were 3 lockdowns during this period
None of this is relevant now with delta, no mitigations, the highest infection rates we've *ever* had in children (4-5% even post- half-term)
The authors carried a review of 61 deaths in children who were positive for SARS-CoV-2/had PIMS-TS and come to the conclusion that only 25 were due to SARS-CoV-2. They conclude that only 25/61= 41% of all children who died 'with' COVID-19 died 'from' it.
For the "we've reached herd immunity in kids, and infections have peaked" crowd: unfortunately, this isn't true. It's the usual half-term related drop that is reversing. The trends are clear in many places, & early rises being seen in England. This is expected but very worrying🧵
The pattern is clear in places like Leicestershire that had half term a week before other parts. Rises clear in all children age groups and young people. Very likely other parts of England will follow.
Similar trends in Scotland where half term also started and ended earlier than England.
REACT-1 results from today:
-highest SARS-CoV-2 prevalence since the study started in May 2020
-very high prevalence in primary & secondary school kids
-higher infection in households with children
-⬆️ in AY.4.2 to 11% end Oct
- 4x increase in SW - due to Immensa scandal
REACT-1 shows the overall prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 was higher than in any previous round of REACT-1 since May 2020. It estimates that ~1.2 million people were infected on any day towards the end of Oct. Swab positivity declines towards the end of Oct coinciding with half-term.
The study finds the highest prevalence of infection ~5.7% among primary and secondary school age children, with increased risk for those living with children. They say this is driving the rise of infection in the 65+ age group where prevalence has *doubled* between Sept and Oct.
Lockdowns happen when governments delay public health measures until too late. Scientists have been arguing for masks, ventilation, vaccination, support for isolation which have little/no negative impacts. Why're we portrayed as 'pro-lockdown' when we're trying to prevent them?
Almost every single interview I've done in the last few days has involved the interviewer conflating public health measures like mask wearing, social distancing etc. with lockdowns, speaking about a 'balance' between mental health & economic impacts and health. Please do better.
There is no dichotomy here. Masks, ventilation, vaccination, are all essential to contain COVID-19, and therefore essential to protect health, economy, and freedoms - because if we don't put these measures in place, it is likely we'll need more severe restrictions.
Letter from our council today to parents.
'Schools are working hard to balance safety' with 'children receiving the education they deserve'...
Don't children deserve safety and education, especially when making their environment safer is what ensures they can stay in school?🧵
The next bit tells contacts they don't need to isolate, but are advised to get a single PCR test. The first bit of advice is to 'wash your hands for 20 secs'.
Kids are expected to 'wear a face covering.. where they encounter lots of people in an encloses space'.. except schools!
I couldn't bring myself to read the rest. Our children are being let down badly- by govt, by JCVI, by RCPCH, former PHE (now UKHSA), and local authorities. I feel completely hopeless for our children- who are getting infected in droves, while other countries protect theirs.