Oh dear. Trade geekery needs an upgrade 😉

A whopping 86% of you GOT THIS WRONG!

The correct answer is … 154

That’s all 164 @wto members EXCEPT the 10 that have not ratified the agreement.

Why? Does it matter?

Maybe.

Cc: @craigaatkinson @maheenhassan3 @AllieRenison

1/11
The #TradeFacilitationAgreement is multilateral, the whole WTO membership (164) agreeing by consensus.

But to add it in the WTO’s rule book, WTO members had to insert it in the package of agreements—by amending Annex 1 of the WTO Agreement.

2/11 wto.org/english/docs_e…
So rules on amendments apply—WTO Agreement, Art.10, Par.3:

“Amendments … shall take effect for the Members that have accepted them upon acceptance by two thirds of the Members and thereafter for each other Member upon acceptance by it.”

3/11 wto.org/english/docs_e…
Right now, 154 WTO members have accepted (ratified) the Trade Facilitation Agreement. That means

(1) the two-thirds threshold has been reached, so the agreement can “take effect”

(2) it ”takes effect” in the 154 members that have accepted it

4/11 tfafacility.org/notifications-…
And in case anyone wants to question whether “take effect” is the same as “applies”, the WTO website clearly uses them as the same

5/11 wto.org/english/docs_e…
Which 10 have NOT ratified the agreement?

DR Congo, EU, Guinea-Bissau, Haiti, Mauritania, Solomon Islands, Surname, Tonga, Venezuela, Yemen

Your eyesight is fine—the EU has not ratified it. Not according to this. But the 27 member states have:

6/11 tfafacility.org/notifications-…
Wait!

According to another list, the EU has ratified. But the 27 EU member states are not on this list

The EU has got its legal knickers in a twist. Follow the link, click on the “instrument”, see footnote 1

“How many is the EU + 27 members?” “27”

7/11 wto.org/english/tratop…
Implications?

The only other WTO amendment—agreed in 2005–is on exporting generic medicines under compulsory licence

Over 2/3 of the membership have ratified, so it’s “in effect”, but only in 134 members

16 years later, 30 still have not ratified

8/11 wto.org/english/tratop…
That’s why the WTO’s website has TWO versions of the intellectual property agreement.

One is the original version, which still applies in the 30 (or is it 31?) members that have not ratified the amendment.

The other is for those that have.

9/11 wto.org/english/docs_e…
The next amendment (hopefully): #FisheriesSubsidies.

It would be added to an annex of the WTO Agreement.

What if it is approved by consensus, gets its two-thirds ratification but [… add name of major player …] delays ratification forever?

10/11 tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2021/11/10/six…
The last part of Art.10.3 kicks in, a marvel of legal drafting.

I’m not a lawyer but I take it to mean “we can kick you out with a 75% majority, and you can only stay with our permission.”

I could be wrong, of course

11/11 wto.org/english/docs_e…
All of this⬆️ now blogged⬇️

TL:DR—if by some miracle a #FisheriesSubsidies deal is struck at the Nov30–Dec 3 WTO Ministerial Conference, it will take a least a year or two to be added to the rule book.

And even then it might not apply to all countries

tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2021/11/17/fis…

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More from @CoppetainPU

12 Nov
18 days until the WTO Ministerial Conference starts, a slew of new/revised drafts have arrived.

1. TRANSPARENCY IN ROUTINE WTO WORK—notifications and discussion in the committees.

A proposed General Council decision but it comes under “WTO reform”

1/7 docs.wto.org/dol2fe/Pages/S…
The proposal: improve transparency to help the system work better

New—Iceland, Paraguay now in; minor changes

Consensus seems unlikely for now. China, India, most developing countries are not on board, many complaining they are already over-burdened

2/7 docs.wto.org/dol2fe/Pages/S…
If ministers agree to set up a working group to look at #WTOreform, then this would be part of the discussion.

The EU has proposed setting one up.

USTR @AmbassadorTai has called for discussions at the ministerial conference and after

3/7 insidetrade.com/share/172631
Read 7 tweets
5 Nov
Thump!

A plain package has landed on my doorstep.

Inside I find …

1/n
… I find … the secret text of the “Trade and environmental sustainability structured discussions (#TESSD)”

1/5 tradebetablog.wordpress.com/tessd-october-…
What does it say?

1. The statement will only be issued by some members (about two thirds of the membership are not on board, although China and the US are reported to have joined the EU, Canada, Japan and others but not Brazil, India, SAfrica, etc

2/5 tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2021/11/05/wto…
Read 6 tweets
2 Nov
Latest in the #WTO #AgricultureNegotiations:

Chair @GloriaAbrahamP’s report circulated yesterday

“committee … special session” = negotiations

There still seems to be little chance of substantial agreement at the Nov30–Dec3 Ministerial Conference

1/7 docs.wto.org/dol2fe/Pages/S…
So most if not all will be pushed into “work programmes” after the conference, in some cases simply to keep the talks going

• Trade distorting domestic support—still differences on the approach to reductions.

2/7 docs.wto.org/dol2fe/Pages/S…
• Market access—nothing on tariff cuts, only transparency on applied tariffs (rates actually applied, at or below legally bound rates in the WTO)
• Export restrictions—notifications, exempting World Food Programme purchases from restrictions

3/7 docs.wto.org/dol2fe/Pages/S…
Read 7 tweets
2 Nov
There has been some interesting reporting of Sunday’s EU-US deal on steel and aluminium.

But the fact is, a lot of it is speculation because some details have not yet been revealed and negotiations on others have only just begun

(Thanks to various experts for the links)

1/10
First, a transcript of a White House briefing, including:

• The size of the tariff quotas—still to be announced
• The start of talks on a deal focusing on carbon intensity in the metals
• Avoiding Chinese content in EU steel—“melt-and-pour”

2/10 whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/…
Next, @bentleyballan and @toddntucker in the Washington Post

Is this bigger than news from Glasgow? Will it transform the fight against climate change?

Depends on the outcome of negotiations, including how many other countries join in. Early days.

3/10 washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/…
Read 11 tweets
1 Nov
THE US-EU AGREEMENT ON STEEL AND ALUMINIUM

Yesterday’s joint statement is here: trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/20… (H/T @AmyPorges)

It has 3 parts:

1. Cooperation
2. Market orientation and carbon intensity (“green steel”)
3. WTO dispute settlement

1/7
1. COOPERATION

(For “non-market excess capacity” read “China”)

Cooperation on trade remedies (duties to countervail subsidies, anti-dumping actions, safeguard tariffs), customs, monitoring, and responses to “non-market excess capacity”.

2/7 trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/20…
2. PROPOSED GLOBAL ARRANGEMENT to “restore market-oriented conditions”

• Others can join
• In 2 years
• Bring into international forums
• Limit market access for non-market-oriented/carbon-intense exporters
• Discipline, coordinate own policies

3/7 trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/20…
Read 8 tweets
30 Oct
A lot going on this weekend: summits in Rome (G20) and Glasgow (climate change).

Also:

Exactly one month before the @wto Ministerial Conference #MC12 starts in Geneva. The prospects are improving marginally, but still not great.

ICYMI with updates

1/7 tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2021/10/30/wto…
@BobWolfeSPS and I remain sceptical that the Ministerial Conference will deliver much of significance out of the broad range of critical problems confronting the @wto

2/7 tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2021/10/30/wto…
More positive: a possible deal on curbing harmful fisheries subsidies—fingers firmly crossed

20 years talking past each other, 2020 deadline missed—until the UN Climate Change summit #COP26 and WTO Ministerial Conference #MC12 loomed

But no details

3/7 wto.org/english/news_e…
Read 7 tweets

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