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Peter Ungphakorn Profile picture
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1 Nov, 8 tweets, 6 min read
THE US-EU AGREEMENT ON STEEL AND ALUMINIUM

Yesterday’s joint statement is here: trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/20… (H/T @AmyPorges)

It has 3 parts:

1. Cooperation
2. Market orientation and carbon intensity (“green steel”)
3. WTO dispute settlement

1/7
1. COOPERATION

(For “non-market excess capacity” read “China”)

Cooperation on trade remedies (duties to countervail subsidies, anti-dumping actions, safeguard tariffs), customs, monitoring, and responses to “non-market excess capacity”.

2/7 trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/20…
2. PROPOSED GLOBAL ARRANGEMENT to “restore market-oriented conditions”

• Others can join
• In 2 years
• Bring into international forums
• Limit market access for non-market-oriented/carbon-intense exporters
• Discipline, coordinate own policies

3/7 trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/20…
3. WTO DISPUTES

Current disputes against each other (DS548 and DS559) to be suspended and then terminated when procedures are agreed on less formal arbitration.

The arbitration is then suspended until either party seeks to use it.

4/7 trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/20…
3. WTO DISPUTES cont.

If arbitration proceeds (not before Oct 31 2022, after 30 days of consultation), it continues work already done in the formal dispute panel. Arbitrators will be the same panellists, if available

Intended: no new formal disputes

5/7 trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/20…
3. WTO DISPUTES cont.

The two present WTO disputes are:

DS548 brought by the EU against the US: wto.org/english/tratop…

DS559 brought by the US against the EU: wto.org/english/tratop…

6/7
The US also to restore normal tariffs (scrap additional tariffs) on specific quantities of EU steel/aluminium—a tariff quota—quantities based on pre-2018 historic import volumes

Q: is this WTO-compatible?

Details:
US: ustr.gov/about-us/polic…

EU: ustr.gov/about-us/polic…

7/7
CORRECTION: The link to the EU Q&A in tweet 7/7 ⬆️ is ec.europa.eu/commission/pre…

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More from @CoppetainPU

Peter Ungphakorn Profile picture
2 Nov
Latest in the #WTO #AgricultureNegotiations:

Chair @GloriaAbrahamP’s report circulated yesterday

“committee … special session” = negotiations

There still seems to be little chance of substantial agreement at the Nov30–Dec3 Ministerial Conference

1/7 docs.wto.org/dol2fe/Pages/S… Image
So most if not all will be pushed into “work programmes” after the conference, in some cases simply to keep the talks going

• Trade distorting domestic support—still differences on the approach to reductions.

2/7 docs.wto.org/dol2fe/Pages/S…
• Market access—nothing on tariff cuts, only transparency on applied tariffs (rates actually applied, at or below legally bound rates in the WTO)
• Export restrictions—notifications, exempting World Food Programme purchases from restrictions

3/7 docs.wto.org/dol2fe/Pages/S…
Read 7 tweets
Peter Ungphakorn Profile picture
2 Nov
There has been some interesting reporting of Sunday’s EU-US deal on steel and aluminium.

But the fact is, a lot of it is speculation because some details have not yet been revealed and negotiations on others have only just begun

(Thanks to various experts for the links)

1/10
First, a transcript of a White House briefing, including:

• The size of the tariff quotas—still to be announced
• The start of talks on a deal focusing on carbon intensity in the metals
• Avoiding Chinese content in EU steel—“melt-and-pour”

2/10 whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/…
Next, @bentleyballan and @toddntucker in the Washington Post

Is this bigger than news from Glasgow? Will it transform the fight against climate change?

Depends on the outcome of negotiations, including how many other countries join in. Early days.

3/10 washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/…
Read 11 tweets
Peter Ungphakorn Profile picture
30 Oct
A lot going on this weekend: summits in Rome (G20) and Glasgow (climate change).

Also:

Exactly one month before the @wto Ministerial Conference #MC12 starts in Geneva. The prospects are improving marginally, but still not great.

ICYMI with updates

1/7 tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2021/10/30/wto…
@BobWolfeSPS and I remain sceptical that the Ministerial Conference will deliver much of significance out of the broad range of critical problems confronting the @wto

2/7 tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2021/10/30/wto…
More positive: a possible deal on curbing harmful fisheries subsidies—fingers firmly crossed

20 years talking past each other, 2020 deadline missed—until the UN Climate Change summit #COP26 and WTO Ministerial Conference #MC12 loomed

But no details

3/7 wto.org/english/news_e…
Read 7 tweets
Peter Ungphakorn Profile picture
28 Oct
Russia’s trade policy review—Day 1, Oct 27. Day 2: today.

These are periodic peer-review sessions (every 5 years for Russia), based on reports from the @wto Secretariat (factual) and the government being reviewed.

See wto.org/english/tratop…

1/15
From a Geneva trade official:

Comments Day 1: > 40 members + 1 observer (Serbia)

Briefly:
POSITIVE—Russia is constructive in @wto and for the coming Ministerial Conference
NEGATIVE—Import substitution policies, the role of the state in Russian economy

2/15
US: recognises steps taken in @wto, but concerns about turning inward, contrary to the principles—non-discrimination, predictability, transparency, fair competition, under import substitution and forced localization.

Includes investment, IT, SPS, government procurement

3/15
Read 14 tweets
Peter Ungphakorn Profile picture
28 Oct
Quite a long thread on the China’s public response to its @wto Trade Policy Review

Lots of detail including:
1. comments covered by WTO rules: China will take seriously and fulfill them,
2. comments beyond WTO rules: unfair, unreasonable, and unacceptable for China.

1/3
The comments came from WTO members. China responded in the meeting too.

Trade policy reviews are periodic peer-review sessions (every 3 years for China, US, EU and Japan). They are based on factual Secretariat reports.

2/3 @wto’s web page on the review: wto.org/english/tratop…
Here are two threads from @fbermingham on some of the comments members made and China’s response, inside the @wto trade policy review of China, on days 1 and 2.

Minutes will be published in a few months.

3/3
Read 4 tweets
Peter Ungphakorn Profile picture
27 Oct
ANNUAL REPORT: The @wto #Services Council (=full membership overseeing work under the General Agreement on Trade in Services, GATS)

It's 10 pages so just a highlight

#TradeInServices

1/4 docs.wto.org/dol2fe/Pages/S…
Electronic commerce and services:

This now covers 3 areas

1. The moratorium on tax on cross-border electronic commerce (a topic as old as the WTO itself)

2. “Invigorated” discussion on boosting digital capability, from this paper: docs.wto.org/dol2fe/Pages/S…

2/4
3. The on-going friction over negotiations in a sub-group of only part of the membership (“#plurilateral” talks, officially “joint-statement initiatives”, JSIs, seen as a way to progress when the membership is deadlocked) versus objections.

“A couple” = India and SAfrica

3/4
Read 4 tweets

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