Peak earnings age stays almost constant at around 45-50 years old in the U.S.

but decreases sharply from 55 to around 35 years old in China over the last 40 years. Image
Another way to look: life-cycle age-earnings cycle and see the extreme changes for China the last 60 years on how 35 becomes the new "golden age" or peaking earnings for Chinese males. ImageImage
Job posts specifying age requirements are normal staples. e.g. this job post for China Life Insurance, title says age 25-45, inside post, actually says 22-35, but could be flexible up to 45.

jobs.51job.com/hangzhou-jgq/1… Image
It's also likely that the decreasing peak earning age of 35 is on the cusp of being reversed, as Korean data showed increased of peaking earning age to about 45 the last 20 years.

conference.iza.org/conference_fil… Image
Data is cohort study, meaning following the same group over time, thus no change in education.

Author: "suggests China has experienced a much larger inter-cohort productivity growth & increase in return to human capital vs. US, but return to experience is higher in the U.S."

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More from @liqian_ren

15 Nov
🧵There are many arguments that could be made against China's Zero-Covid policis, but significant negative economic impact is not the best one.

So far impacts on aggregate service economy at best is muted.

wisdomtree.com/blog/2021-11-1…
Virus policies affected service sectors the most, but aggregate services are expanding by both PMI measures.
High Frequency data Baidu Congestion Index mostly on track with last year for top cities, except Beijing, which likely has more to do with its political city.
Read 6 tweets
14 Nov
🧵 A landmark civil court case in Chinese A share securities fraud just had a significant verdict ($385 million). The significance is not just in dollars.

Kangmei Pharm. (600518) accounting fraud 2016-1018, officially uncovered in 2019, unofficially by social media 2018. /1
It's first time, China Securities Investor Services Center (ISC) filed as plaintiff in representative of investors.

ISC, a non-profit financial institution and is under the direct administration of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC).

isc.com.cn/html/zxjs/

/2
Notice the murky status of non-profits. Its website ends with .com.cn, which for English readers may thought as for-profit companies.

China skeptics are right to be skeptical as ISC directly administered by CSRC (China's SEC), a govt entity.

On the ground China is complex /3
Read 10 tweets
4 Nov
Founder: "Global Semiconductor Supply Chain is 400b business, but China pork is 2T. My PhD is in Semi but now I am in using Chips/BigData on pig farm/insurance business."

I talk to a small Chinese business founded by
Singaporean. Here are Qs asked
soundcloud.com/chinaoftomorro…
1. About yourself and how you end up founding the company in China?

2. As a small business, what are the top 3 challenges? And what are the top 3 benefits of doing business in China

3. Why headquartering in Shanghai? And why choosing Chengdu to base your R&D operations.
4. You/your co-founder, your chief data scientist got PhDs in Singapore's premium university. What's the benefit and challenges of doing business as a Singaporean
5. On pig monitoring, who are your main competitors in China?
6. Do you plan to branch out from pig farms?
Read 7 tweets
24 Oct
1. DingDing just put out a very long essay(in Chinese) on slowly improving China-US relationship. We talked on the difficulties of starting/running thinktank in China. Intl. Relations not an area of my research so my skepticism is qualified but here are some interesting charts.
2. This chart illustrated the way Chinese experiences America differently from how Americans experience China, which is mainly brandless "made in China" goods.

Chinese didn't consume as much "made in America" goods as they buy more goods from American firms operating in China.
3. As I have tweeted before on a China/India supermarket chain comparison, Walmart is the 4th largest supermarket chain in China. And this is true across many other industries where US firms have top brand recognition.

Read 10 tweets
22 Oct
A thread: What is China’s energy import/export makeup? Have they historically been net importers? Starting in 2000s, as the economy grows, China becomes less energy dependent. 1/5
Coal dominates as the 2/3 source of energy supply in China. 2/5
The most dramatic domestic production/import mix change over time for China crude. 3/5
Read 7 tweets
22 Oct
Narrative No. 1: Behind every China celebrity scandal, there is an unsavory social news(perhaps the peasant killing a neighbor's family news?) from which attention needs to be diverted.

Don't know whether that is true, but widely believed, or joked.
Narrative No. 2: #PBOC never wants to be seen doing bidding of the market. If the market calls for a RR/rate cut, it will not, as long as annual growth >5%. That's why all big heads say there is enough liquidity for real estate sector.

Again, narrative, hard to backtest though. Image
Narrative No 3: If English news says Xi facing resistance in implementing property tax/policies, good indicator these policies are coming.

Again, narrative economics that can't be backtested.

Read 4 tweets

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