Screenshot from the study, for the fact checkers ;P
Also made a version that might be easier to grasp for the CNN viewers amongst you all!
Assuming this prevents from death by 95%.
If they had enrolled a general population in the US we could have expected about 52 deaths in the placebo arm, given a 0.24% PFR.
Now that'd mean that only 5-6 people would have died in the vaccine arm, if the vaccine is 95% effective.
43,800 study participants * 0.24% Current US Covid19 PFR = 105 deaths
That'd be if the vaccine was 0% effective.
(PFR = Population Fatality Ratio)
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
Since vaccine efficacy is waning fast, most people in the US are actually unprotected unless they have recently boostered or are one of the ~150M Americans that have natural immunity.
From the large Swedish population study published in The Lancet (preprint), we know that Vaccine Efficacy (VE) against symptomatic infection wanes fast!
We can use this information, to calculate how man of the fully vaccinated in Germany are currently actually protected.
Vaccination was spread out from 12/2020 until now.
We know that VE reaches zero at month 8.