So we establish the range, we can see that there are a couple of MSB's to the upside that set us up for an uptrend in price
A bullish order block / supply is hit, where price runs up to another MSB, which really confirms our bias for the next move
Then we can ask ourselves where is the liquidity that price is likely to be drawn to?
My feeling was that the recent range highs hadn't been run yet, so a good initial target resides there.
Resistance lives in the form of 5M bearish orderblock / supply as shown
Entry shown per the below for the set up.
SL placed lower than the '1' level on the fib in case of some sudden price moves in this LTF
Another target outside of the 5M supply is the FVG on the 15M timeframe (5M chart shown here)
But I'm aiming for the order block only
Entry made based on a limit order, and the idea about the run on entry in the LTF plays out in our favour
Target was hit and profits taken (P&L taken just before close)
Post trade:
FVG was run well and truly. Could've, should've, would've held to the FVG, but my plan was to stick with the orderblock as shown.
Stick with your plan, but don't always be a robot
Note also that the 21 & 50 EMA's were in our favour for entry also
Conclusion
Take the time to set up your trade, identify the trend either through PA or EMA's, the target, & then stick with a plan, whether it be full profit take, or partials up to a level.
Hopefully this helps you out - stay hungry, and say hi to the old chook for me
Cheers
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Here's my 100 weeks of backtested $EURUSD price action from June 15 2020 to 09 May 2022, here's what is covered:
- Occurrence of high & low of the week
- % of high and low of the week per day
- % of Mondays high / low being swept on a given day
Took me a while, hope you enjoy
The high and low of the week
Here we can determine that the low of the week fell 38/100 times on a Mon, while the high of the week was also most likely to form on this day too with 31/100 occurrences
Note that there's during the week, there's more of a spread compared to $BTC
Percentage / Chance wise, you can see that Monday is more likely to be the low of the week by a factor of 5, 2, and 3 compared to a T, W, or Th respectively
Friday is different though.
With the high of the wk, Monday leads, followed by a Thurs, then Friday.
I made a free Price Action course not long ago - I'll share some detailed threads on portions of the course so you don't have to spend hours watching them when trading #Bitcoin & #Altcoins
We'll jump ahead to Module 4 - Ranges & Targets.
Why? Because I loved sharing this one!
What's in a Range?
A range is simply defined by anchoring two points on a chart based on:
A timeframe (daily, weekly, monthly etc)
Market structure
Or a combination of both
The method I use to anchor the range is a Fibonacci Tool, with values set at 1, 0.5, and 0
Range Tool Setup 1/1
1) First Select the 3rd item down on the left hand side menu
Then select "Fib Retracement"
2) Open up the settings of the Fib Retracement Tool, then set up the Fib tool to show the 0, 1, and 0.5 levels
The Trend Continuation fibs - covered in upcoming Module 3
Of course these are originally based on the ICT fibs, but nuanced per the following for #crypto & #bitcoin
- 0.72 entry point
- A negative 0.12 level
- 0.28 level
Why though?
The 0.72 Entry Point:
The reason for this is simple - it's the mid point of the 0.66 and 0.786 levels of the fib, where I've personally found much better entries and setups using this
The negative 0.12 level:
Included in this particular suite of fibs because you're looking for a get in, get out move that simply beats previous market structure.
By entering at the 0.72 level, this -0.12 level yields a 3RR move if the SL is at 1.
I backtested 100 weeks of $BTC #bitcoin price action from June 15 2020 to 09 May 2022, was able to determine the below:
- Occurrence of high & low of the week
- % of high and low of the week per day
- % of Mondays high / low being swept on a given day
8 hrs of research for you:
The high and low of the week
Here we can determine that the low of the week fell 43/100 times on a Mon, while the high of the week was also most likely to form on this day too with 27/100 occurrences
The rest of the days are generally similar, bar Tuesday lows & weekend highs
Percentage / Chance wise, it's obviously a no brainer in the fact that given the sample data of 100 weeks, that the % are simply a given of the numbers above