ExoticQuant Profile picture
20 Nov, 10 tweets, 3 min read
(Thread) Trading Ratio Spreads (Part 1)

Let’s try to understand what factors impact ratio spreads and how to trade & risk manage them.

As it’s impossible to fit everything into one thread I’m dividing this into two. I’ll cover factors that affect ratio spreads
+
in the first part and then discuss how to trade & risk manage them in the second (which I’ll post tomorrow morning). Finally, I’ll discuss the best case scenario to trade them that has a very good risk reward.

A quick (boring) intro:
Ratio spreads (RS): Short OTM/ATM options
+
and go long options that are more in the money than the options shorted. Quantity of options shorted are in multiples of quantity of options bought.

Factors that affect ratio spreads:

(super important)
Delta wrt TTE – As we near expiry, delta of OTM option goes down(see pic)
+
(as price needs to approach payoff) and that of ITM options goes up. This factor is more important on Wednesday/Thursday.

Delta wrt IV – As IVs increase there is more “meat” in the option price profile and so delta of OTM options increase and that of ITM options decrease (pic)
+
This factor is more important on days other than Thursday when IV behavior isn’t that relevant except timing of entry.

Effect of IV & Skew –When IVs increase in a down move skew also increases (typical case). A put ratio spread is a short skew trade. Hence if index keeps
+
moving down a PRS position will get hit badly. See pic below for PRS. This factor is more important on days other than Thursday.

Choosing a “range” for RS. Range is important as this determines how much breathing space one has got to add, adjust or defend the positions.
+
We can define range covered by ratio spreads as interval from strike of long option to the breakeven level (in the payoff space). Pic below (all these pics are drawn by hand on Paint 3D so pls excuse any minor defects). Due to existence of vol skew, the range one gets by
+
entering a put ratio spread at a certain cost is typically larger than what you get when entering a similar cost call ratio spread.
A larger range is also one of the reasons why I trade put ratio spreads more compared to call ratio spreads.

Before wrapping up this part,
+
a note on the long option leg of a ratio spread. This serves as the best “indicator” of where your overall position is heading. If one trades a credit RS then, for starters, a loss in this leg is great(!) and we don’t have to monitor the short leg whatsoever unless we want
+
to shift the RS to improve profits. Behavior of this option’s delta or its IV, gives a perfect health check on the overall position.

I’ll discuss trading ratio spreads in the second part tomorrow morning.

(END)

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with ExoticQuant

ExoticQuant Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @muskk

21 Nov
(Thread) Trading Ratio Spreads (Part 2)

The main bit!

I’ll mostly focus on credit put ratio spread in this thread.

(yesterday's thread below for linking both)

First let's look at best time to enter the trade.
+

Trade entry point: Two scenarios. One safe and one aggressive. See pic below (pasting pic to reduce length of this thread).

Image
Once we enter, how does the price of PRS behave?

Let’s focus on expiry trading as this is the easier bit compared to trading them on other days or entering positional (which I'll cover in future posts).

First let me quickly mention what I did last Thursday.
+
Read 14 tweets
14 Nov
(Thread) Stochastic processes

Thought of posting a primer on stochastic processes that’ll be useful for any future posts on whether deriving Black’s formula for pricing calls/puts (my next post and should be a quick one) or discussing interpolation of vol surfaces (SVI) etc.
This should also help understanding my VIX derivation post better.

Any let's get started.

Any underlying variable, be it a Nifty/BankNifty, USDINR, crude etc, can be represented as a stochastic process with a drift and a diffusion(random) component.
+
Think of a stochastic process as a random variable evolving with time OR a collection of random variables that have been gathered at different times (Usually all stochastic processes, expectations are always defined under some probability measure but I’m not touching on
+
Read 9 tweets
25 Oct
#Distribution Below is how an index return distribution can "potentially" evolve with time AS OBSERVED at starting time t=0.

As an example, one can view this as a potential #Nifty return distribution with PDFs given by Nov month end options (t=1), Dec month end options (t=2)..
+ Image
and so on (T=1 can be weekly also but I reckon weekly distributions won't look that smooth based on what I observed of option price/IV behavior).

Things to note:

At t=0 nothing is random, everything deterministic and pdf is a dirac-delta function.

+
And with time, probability of index moving away from its mean (colored with orange ticks) goes up and so pdf spreads wider and it's peak value keeps coming down in order to assign more weight to returns away from its mean.

+
Read 4 tweets
17 Oct
(Thread) Forecasting

Once upon a time (many many many years ago!) one of my friends was asked to implement a forecasting project as the last stage of getting an offer from a prop trading firm in Europe. Below is the problem statement:
+
Input data consists of (several hours of) trade and order book data for a listed product.
Order book data consists of time, bid/offer price and size resp. whereas the trade data
consists of time, price and volume.
Objective: Build a quantitative model to trade this instrument.
+
My friend was a uni. chicago booth grad but had a lazy arse so I helped him implement it with the help of a common HFT friend. We both knew shit and the project was all implemented through the HFT guy’s guidance. I’m just presenting the report below. Check out.
+
Read 5 tweets
29 Aug
Thread on deriving India VIX!

Get your pen and paper ready!

The NSE India VIX white paper (link below) only gives the formula and we will derive it in this thread. That'll be the only focus of this thread with more in future threads.
www1.nseindia.com/content/indice…
This is going to be mathematical and my post yesterday about expectation and integration should help. But I’ll try to reduce jargon and leave out unnecessary mathematical details. Some topics such as stochastic processes have been touched upon here. Will post more on that later
+
Let’s say f(x) is any function of a stock (or any other tradable underlying) ‘x’ and whose 1st & 2nd derivatives exist. Following on from the derivation last time of the PDF of any underlying,
‘x’ has a PDF, φ(k), given in fig below.
Image
Read 12 tweets
28 Aug
(Thread) A basic math primer for people with non-math background (this will also help in understanding my post tomorrow on India VIX).

I’ll be simplifying a lot of math details here.

I’ll mostly talk on "expected value" and a bit on integration.
+
Expected value is one of the most important terms in financial markets. When we want to find fair value or “price” of any financial derivative we mathematically try to find its “expected value”. We will define what it is later on. But first let’s talk about random variables.
+
Random variables: When we talk of random variables we talk of what values/outcomes a variable can take and what is the probability of each of these outcomes. So, two important terms here: outcomes & their probabilities.

Nifty, BNF (and their vols etc) are all random variables
+
Read 11 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(