If your talking to experts about #uranium find out if they’ve actually spoken to any band council members at the Clearwater River Dene Nation or knowledgeable First Nation leaders in Saskatchewan.
Ask then if they’ve spoke to constitutional law experts and/or JFK Law who represents the CRDN.

Ask they what they think the markets reaction will be if it comes to believe that the worlds biggest new uranium mine faces permitting/development delays of 5 years (or worse)
I understand why they brokerage community (that is hungry for investment banking fees) has chosen to only talk to the mining companies and take there word. That conflict of interest is clear.
The market commentators either don’t see what’s happening or aren’t correctly positioned so they avoid the subject and want to ramble on about points I made months ago.
I made my point about $cco months ago and it was factual. There contract book sucks, they will be forced to buy lbs and burn some cash. We can’t be sure how many lbs cause we don’t know how long it will take to restart MR.
The large allocation made to $cco by the majors etfs will be a drag on them underperform the companies that are uncontracted or contracted to obtain high prices when the #uranium market spikes with quick mine restarts or builds.
The #uranium markets focus will now be squarely on the mining industry’s struggles and the huge looming gap between demand and supply.

Utilities are now aggressively trying to secure 10 year supply agreements. There are not enough mines to give even 2/3’s of them the coverage
The same thing happened last cycle. The panic starts in the spot market when utilities find out they are rejected in the term market. Especially when majors stop selling them contracts with discounts that cap themselves at $70/lb!
Utilities get great comfort knowing those capped contracts are being offered. Once the industry stops offering those contracts the mindset changes. To be clear, as long as major miners offer long term fixed or capped supply contacts the industry will be relaxed.
Once it’s clear the industry is simply unable/unwilling to offer those ridiculous contracts we will see growing concern leading to panic.

Buying in spot becomes ‘certain’ you know what price you get vs imagining how much you might be forced to pay 5-10 years from now
The fuel buyers 100% take there cues from the major miners and one of them has been offering sweet deals all year based on a policy of long term contracts out performing the spot market during 25 years of mostly bear market.
That policy will either end or soon $cco will find themselves sold out of material on a 10 year basis and locked into to the pricing like we see in there contract table.

The industry will then begin to scrutinize the tier 2 players consisting of restarts and new mines.
As this process plays out absolute panic will set in. Fuel buyers will realize what some of us already know.

The number of new nuclear reactors that are currently planned, plus the restarts and extensions has created a massive supply demand gap
New mines will not be permitted and built quickly enough to supply the market As required for the years 2026-2032 and possible many years longer unless the price spikes very high now and mine financing is accelerated and large lower grade projects come on stream
There’s some commentators saying a spike will take years. They were still in school last cycle. It appears they don’t manage much money at all and hide both there AUM and performance. The might actually have very little funds invested in uranium since they are generalists
I appreciate that they are working hard this cycle and trying to figure out how the #uranium industry operates and also how to profit from investing resources as the cycles play out and evolve. They got a lot to learn…
So if you have access to them. Ask them when they think the mines in the CRDN territory will be developed if ever? Have they done DD or are they just taking the mining companies word for it? Ask them how important those mines are to the supply?
Based on what I’ve learned talking to parties in the now, I’d say that the market best figure out if the NXE mine will come on in 3 years or 8 years or longer? Cause predicting a 25mln lbs per year hole starting in a couple years seems pretty important to me.
Much more important than arguing the degree of shittyness of the $cco contract book or if they will burn through all there inventory and be forced to buy 5mln lbs or 15 mln lbs.

Fact is, we won’t know how much cash flow is burnt and profits tossed away until…
How high the uranium price goes. I like mining companies that profit greatly from rising prices in a bull market. Anyone defending $cco contracting policy either doesn’t understand resource investing or doesn’t understand this #uranium cycle. Perhaps they might have also…
Been foolish enough to short $leu a year ago before it’s 6x run.

Remember, I’m just a retired guy who enjoys afternoon margaritas on vacation. Mmmm and they go great with Shore Club’s ‘Asian fusion roll’. Think I’ll have to work that into today’s schedule…. Cheers

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More from @BambroughKevin

19 Nov
Couple of Friday #uranium thoughts. I see some people are commenting on Artie Hyde’s commentary. Lol

For the record, I’m not short Cameco, never have shorted $cco and probably never will.
I did say that I recommend $urnm over the other #uranium etfs because it has a lower weighting in $cco $ccj. I also explained my belief that physical #uranium will out perform Cameco and if long $urnm you could hedge out the cco position with a 12.5% short and long more $u.un
This does not short $cco. It’s just hedging out the position owned by purchasing $urnm.

One point Art doesn’t really address is how terrible the cco contract currently is and the fact that we aren’t provided much information of when (if ever) it will improve
Read 26 tweets
16 Nov
I’m old enough to remember when everyone thought japanese cars were poorly built.

$TSLA revenue and earnings growth projections will be decimated by Chinese company competition in due course.
Investors today don’t appreciate how much the quality will improve in China while they will also maintain major labour cost, material cost and energy cost advantages. China has been securing long term contracts and mining acquisitions for key battery and EV materials
They are now making a massive investment into #nuclear power and also securing #uranium

Low interest loans will finance the large upfront cost of building nuclear power so that the over all nuclear power price will be half of what it is in the west.
Read 5 tweets
16 Nov
Great thread…

I cut one of the charts to demonstrate what I saw in early 2003 that blew me away. I was positive that buy and waiting would well rewarded then. 10x in 10 years for sure I told anyone that would listen. (Along with Eric Sprott)
Declared it the best commodity story I had ever seen. I swear on my life it’s not only a better set up today. Risk to reward is off the charts.

Inventories are nearly completely out, add up the restarts and new mines as we have a massive hole a few years out.
Factor in that many mines will be delayed while many reactors will continue to get life extensions, quickly be restarted and new ones will be added. It’s explosive.
Read 15 tweets
13 Nov
Art Hyde is joke.. guy picks a fight. Calls me incompetent, says I over state my expertise and skill, and my industry contacts. So I hand him his ass by pointing out my record and his lack of one. Then he blocks me and cheap shots calling me a retired drunk Image
I’ve got to know many guys like Artie over the years. Viciously jealous and arrogant as fuck. He’s bent out of shape cause he has worked so hard, reading all the books he was told to to get his precious letters to follow his name.
I walked into the industry cause I had the stones to leave the IT world and trade my own money and perform. Then after just 11 years I retired and just manage my own money again. Sure I like a some drinks and I enjoy some gummies :)
Read 7 tweets
13 Nov
Any CFA’s want to make $1000 doing a few hours of work? I will etransfer the first person to complete this a detailed will referenced model of cameco’s contract book. $ccj $cco #uranium #CFAchallenge

Here’s the md&a read and follow the thread

Page 17 has cash flow sensitivity and the contract books.
Here’s how cameco management and board thinks. They are assuming only 2% inflation. But the dramatic realization here is they are basing there uranium contract strategy on the last 25yrs where I we likely had max 7-8yrs bull and mostly bear market or near flat years.
Read 21 tweets
12 Nov
Friday uranium thoughts into the close… not surprisingly. Buy more $u.un as a sure bet.

Chatted with several attendees from this weeks nuclear conference.

The take aways are significant.
I’m hearing that the utilities/ fuel buyers are still pissed, even more so.

Interestingly, after being on a buyers strike as they hoped the price jump would be short lived they are now actively seeking to contract. Willing to pay this price for years.
Feeling is that there will be willingness to contract with floors and escalators now.

For the first time since the start of the bull. People who said there was endless inventories available for spot now feel it’s drying up and lbs are very hard to source.
Read 20 tweets

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