Thread by @BambroughKevin

If your talking to experts about #uranium find out if they’ve actually spoken to any band council members at the Clearwater River Dene Nation or knowledgeable First Nation leaders in Saskatchewan.

Ask then if they’ve spoke to constitutional law experts and/or JFK Law who represents the CRDN.

Ask they what they think the markets reaction will be if it comes to believe that the worlds biggest new uranium mine faces permitting/development delays of 5 years (or worse)

I understand why they brokerage community (that is hungry for investment banking fees) has chosen to only talk to the mining companies and take there word. That conflict of interest is clear.

The market commentators either don’t see what’s happening or aren’t correctly positioned so they avoid the subject and want to ramble on about points I made months ago.

I made my point about $cco months ago and it was factual. There contract book sucks, they will be forced to buy lbs and burn some cash. We can’t be sure how many lbs cause we don’t know how long it will take to restart MR.

The large allocation made to $cco by the majors etfs will be a drag on them underperform the companies that are uncontracted or contracted to obtain high prices when the #uranium market spikes with quick mine restarts or builds.

The #uranium markets focus will now be squarely on the mining industry’s struggles and the huge looming gap between demand and supply.

Utilities are now aggressively trying to secure 10 year supply agreements. There are not enough mines to give even 2/3’s of them the coverage

The same thing happened last cycle. The panic starts in the spot market when utilities find out they are rejected in the term market. Especially when majors stop selling them contracts with discounts that cap themselves at $70/lb!

Utilities get great comfort knowing those capped contracts are being offered. Once the industry stops offering those contracts the mindset changes. To be clear, as long as major miners offer long term fixed or capped supply contacts the industry will be relaxed.

Once it’s clear the industry is simply unable/unwilling to offer those ridiculous contracts we will see growing concern leading to panic.

Buying in spot becomes ‘certain’ you know what price you get vs imagining how much you might be forced to pay 5-10 years from now

The fuel buyers 100% take there cues from the major miners and one of them has been offering sweet deals all year based on a policy of long term contracts out performing the spot market during 25 years of mostly bear market.

That policy will either end or soon $cco will find themselves sold out of material on a 10 year basis and locked into to the pricing like we see in there contract table.

The industry will then begin to scrutinize the tier 2 players consisting of restarts and new mines.

As this process plays out absolute panic will set in. Fuel buyers will realize what some of us already know.

The number of new nuclear reactors that are currently planned, plus the restarts and extensions has created a massive supply demand gap

New mines will not be permitted and built quickly enough to supply the market As required for the years 2026-2032 and possible many years longer unless the price spikes very high now and mine financing is accelerated and large lower grade projects come on stream

There’s some commentators saying a spike will take years. They were still in school last cycle. It appears they don’t manage much money at all and hide both there AUM and performance. The might actually have very little funds invested in uranium since they are generalists

I appreciate that they are working hard this cycle and trying to figure out how the #uranium industry operates and also how to profit from investing resources as the cycles play out and evolve. They got a lot to learn…

So if you have access to them. Ask them when they think the mines in the CRDN territory will be developed if ever? Have they done DD or are they just taking the mining companies word for it? Ask them how important those mines are to the supply?

Based on what I’ve learned talking to parties in the now, I’d say that the market best figure out if the NXE mine will come on in 3 years or 8 years or longer? Cause predicting a 25mln lbs per year hole starting in a couple years seems pretty important to me.

Much more important than arguing the degree of shittyness of the $cco contract book or if they will burn through all there inventory and be forced to buy 5mln lbs or 15 mln lbs.

Fact is, we won’t know how much cash flow is burnt and profits tossed away until…

How high the uranium price goes. I like mining companies that profit greatly from rising prices in a bull market. Anyone defending $cco contracting policy either doesn’t understand resource investing or doesn’t understand this #uranium cycle. Perhaps they might have also…

Been foolish enough to short $leu a year ago before it’s 6x run.

Remember, I’m just a retired guy who enjoys afternoon margaritas on vacation. Mmmm and they go great with Shore Club’s ‘Asian fusion roll’. Think I’ll have to work that into today’s schedule…. Cheers