23 Nov, 15 tweets, 5 min read
Is watching the 1984 Ghostbusters movie killing people?

Recent data show death rate of 10-59yr olds who have watched the 1984 Ghostbuster Movie is 2x higher than those who have watched the 2021 Ghostbuster movie

I don't know how to explain this other than movie-caused mortality
I was told by everyone that the 1984 Ghostbusters movie was safe and amusing, and never anticipated it could be so dangerous to young people!

It appears the 2021 film is MUCH safer, and strongly preferred, but this fact has been hidden by conspiracy
Digging further, I noticed the probability of seeing 1984 film is higher for those older in the spectrum, while demographic of those watching the 2021 film is much younger.

I guess that makes sense, since for GenX'ers the 1984 movie came out in their childhood and teen years.
Digging some more, I found UK data showing age-specific mortality rates from 2019.

Even though the overall 10-59yr mortality rate is 149.5 per 100k

It varies from 8.8 per 100k (10-14yr) to 478.2 per 100k (55-59yr)

Thus, the older have a death risk >50x higher than the younger
This got me thinking, "I wonder if the different age distributions have something to do with this."

So I computed the expected mortality rate for the cohorts watching the 1984 and 2021 movies based on a weighted average using their age distribution.
Looking at those numbers, I see that a group of 10-59yr old people with the age distribution of those watching the 1984 movie would have an expected mortality rate of 192.3 per 100k

While a group with age distribution of those watching the 2021 would be 79.7 per 100k.
Thus, based on the disparate age distributions, we would expect people watching the 1984 Ghostbusters movie to have a death rate of 192.3/79.7=2.4x as high as the death rate of people watching the 2021 Ghostbusters:Afterlife Movie.
Thus, maybe the 2x higher rate of death among 1984 Ghostbuster movie watchers has another explanation other than movie-caused mortality.

Maybe it is the dramatic difference in age distribution in watchers of a GenX film vs. a Post-Millenial film that explains the death disparity
Maybe someone should explain this to Alex Berenson before he writes another SubStack post, or the thousands of people forwarding this around social media and alternative social media platforms.
Here is a twitter thread on a similar situation involving these SARS-CoV-2 vaccines going around:

and a detailed blog post:
covid-datascience.com/post/what-do-u…
Here is a blog post presenting this parody with the luxury of escaping the 280 character limit:

covid-datascience.com/post/is-watchi…
Morale of the story:

Be careful not to infer causation from correlation, especially given the complex pandemic data with all kinds of biases, and especially when confirmation bias (jumping to conclusions based on your preconceived notions) is involved.

Data interpretation 101
*Moral lol
And a serious point is that if it is obvious the age differential drives results when put in the absurd (but conceptually realistic) Ghostbusters setting,

Why do so many not recognize it when in the context of covid vaccines, where many immediately jump to inferring causation?

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# More from @jsm2334

22 Nov
The UK published all cause death data from 1/2/21-9/24/21 split out by vaccination status/age group: ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…

In young (10-59yr), all cause deaths in 2 dose group are ~2x higher than unvaccinated.

Does this mean the vaccines are "killing more than they save?"
As I will show in this thread, this conclusion is erroneous, an artifact of Simpson's paradox, since the 10-59yr is far too wide an age range, and vaccination rate and death risk vary substantially from the younger to older end of the age range.
To investigate this, I pulled some public data to try to adjust for the hidden age effects within the 10-59yr age group

First, note how widely the annual death rate per 1000 varies significantly from the young end to older end of the 10yr-59yr age group
ourworldindata.org/grapher/death-…
17 Nov
@surfernan put up the most recent episode of her VAX Files @thevaxfiles, this one dealing with boosters and mandates.

I contributed to the discussion on mandates, discussing evidence for immune protection from previous infection & implication on mandates

podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/14-…
Besides me, the other experts interviewed included
Dr. Monica Gahdni @MonicaGandhi9
Dr. Nikolai Petrovsky @vaxine_news
Dr. Miguel O'Ryan @MiguelORyan1
Dr. Andrew Reed
This podcast is exceptionally well put together with tremendous professionalism and polish, providing a clear, balanced, and insightful discussion of boosters and mandates.
17 Nov
Co-author of paper claiming COVID-19 vaccines linked to miscarriage says he’s retracting it – Retraction Watch retractionwatch.com/2021/11/16/co-…
This paper was really embarrassingly ignorant — they purported 91% miscarriage rate from reanalysis of NEJM suggesting miscarriage rate was not high after vaccination.

They take subset of first trimester “completed pregnancies” and noted nearly all ended in miscarriage …
But ignored the fact that given the timing of the study there was no way for the women vaccinated in first trimester to have delivered a full term baby yet, so of course the “completed pregnancies” were the miscarriages.
9 Nov
Just peeked at Israeli MOH 11/9 data on current infection/serious infection rates split out by unvaccinated, boosted, & vax/not boosted.

We see boosted strongly protected vs. infection, and vaccinated/boosted show evidence of waning effectiveness, but still 50-70% VE_infection
For serious disease, again boosted are strongly protected. But even vaccinated/not boosted have much lower severe disease rates than unvaccinated.
Remember, these are CURRENTLY active cases, so only a snapshot, but show (1) strong protection of boosters and (2) Even unboosted vaccinated subpopulation seem to have substantial protection vs. severe disease, at all age groups.
25 Oct
@daniel_bilar @EduEngineer @kueny_michael @mjtimber2 @stkirsch Here is the sequence if you are interested:
7 Oct
What do currently active cases on Israeli MoH dashboard say about vaccine effectiveness vs. infection/severe disease for those vaccinated and with/without booster?

Here are the current data as of October 7, 2021 after roughly 2 months of delivery of boosters:
These data come from the Israel MoH dashboard from October 7, 2021 (datadashboard.health.gov.il/COVID-19/gener…) and include counts of currently active infections and severe infections by age group, split out by vaccination status (unvaccinated, boosters, or vaccinated but no boosters).
I simply computed "vaccine effectiveness" for vaccine (or booster) as the 1 minus the ratio of the infection (or serious infection) rate for the vaccinated (or boosted) group and the unvaccinated group.

Note that this is only a snapshot of current cases.