⚠️My god—the new #B11259 variant being possibly ~500% more competitively infectious is the most staggering stat yet. Also, #NuVariant has more than >2x the number of bad spike mutations than Delta. Here’s an updated 🧵👇

Model by @JPWeiland matches up with graph by @jburnmurdoch
2) That spike in #B11259 displacing Delta has now caused shockwaves worldwide. It is really bad. Not only that but the previous #C12 variant also seems to be slowly growing and displacing Delta too in South Africa.
3) the new #B11259 variant has an “extremely high” 32 worrisome mutations in the spike. That is a “real concern” and much much much more worrisome than any others found to date. 👇
4) Notably, it’s the first time that a variant has *2* furin cleavage site mutations. “variant contains not one, but two furin cleavage site mutations - P681H & N679K- this is the first time @PeacockFlu seen 2 of these mutations in a single variant.”

📌Furin site spells trouble.
5) For fhe #DeltaVariant—one of its most dangerous mutations was in the furin cleavage site P681H.

Guess which variant also has another nasty mutation at the same 681 amino acid spot?➡️ The new Botswana #B11529 variant. nature.com/articles/d4158…
6) Now #B11529 is taking over the GP region, where “almost all recent samples” are now #B11529 — the blue dots 🔵 … 👀
7) But is now surging everywhere in SA— a shortcut PCR test for #B11529 shows it suddenly appear across **all provinces** of South Africa!!! That’s a bad bad sign.
8) It has leaked out of Africa now too—but fortunately caught by 🇭🇰’s quarantine system for international arrivals. But that’s where the good news ends— #B11259 was barely caught by a 4th PCR test in cross infection across a hotel hallway. Worse—both were Pfizer vaccinated. See👇
9) I’ll be sending more updates and alerts in the coming days and weeks. If you have found my thread 🧵 helpful… then subscribe below. Thank you.
11) Quadrupling of cases in just 6 days is a very bad sign. This same province also saw ~75% #B11529 - well outpacing #Delta.

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More from @DrEricDing

28 Nov
NEW—Australia 🇦🇺 confirms its first 2 cases of #Omicron variant in New South Wales (Sydney region) among flight ✈️ passengers returning from South Africa 🇿🇦, aboard a Qatar Airways flight via Doha. All 260 aboard now isolating. 14 days hotel quarantine for those from S Africa. 🧵 Image
2) This adds to the flurry of new / probable #Omicron cases identified in the past 2 days. It’s definitely global now
3) I warned that it was already global outside of SubSaharan Africa when we immediately noticed the Belgium 🇧🇪 case has zero travel to Southern Africa. And it was weeks ago. Millions fly out every week in Africa. It was inevitable if we respond so late.
Read 4 tweets
27 Nov
BREAKING—🇬🇧PM warns: “The #Omicron spreads very rapidly & can be spread between people double vaccinated. There is very extensive mutation—diverges quite significantly from previous, and as a result, might in part reduce the protection of our vaccines over time”. 👀 #BoosterShots Image
2) “we will require all contacts of those who test positive with a suspected case of Omicron to self-isolate for 10 days regardless of your vaccination status."

cnn.com/world/live-new… Image
3) This follows UK discovery for 2 cases of #Omicron this morning.
Read 7 tweets
27 Nov
BREAKING—Uk 🇬🇧 now reports its first 2 cases of #OmicronVariant, with Africa travel connection. UK now adds Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia, Angola to its travel red list.—“If you have returned from there in the last 10 days you must isolate & get PCR tests”.
cnn.com/world/live-new… Image
2) A country being on the “red list” means that UK residents, as well as British and Irish nationals arriving home from that red list point of departure, must undergo a 10-day hotel quarantine at their own expense. 👀
3) there is likely a big cluster of #Omicron cases among travelers on KLM flights from Cape Town and Johannesburg that landed in Amsterdam yesterday.
Read 7 tweets
27 Nov
NEW—“Dozens” likely infected onboard 2 flights ✈️ carrying ~600 people from South Africa that landed in Netherlands—Dutch health service estimates up to ~85 cases —so far 15 positive from 110 tested. Nearly 500 results still pending—& pending if #Omicron. reuters.com/world/europe/p… Image
2) “The Dutch government banned all air travel from southern Africa early on Friday—passengers already en route to the 🇳🇱 would have to undergo testing and quarantine upon arrival.
Passengers from Cape Town & Johannesburg, said they were kept waiting on the tarmac for hours.”
3) Travel restrictions sadly could be too late. The first EU case of #OmicronVariant detected in Belgium — she didn’t even travel to Sub-Saharan Africa! This means the virus has definitely escaped the region un-detected.
Read 4 tweets
26 Nov
⚠️FIRST #OmicronVariant EUROPE CASE DID **NOT** TRAVEL TO SOUTHERN AFRICA—Tracing details of the Belgium #B11529 case reveals only travel to Egypt🇪🇬 & Turkey 🇹🇷—but not Sub-Saharan Africa at all. I’m concerned #Omicron is global 🌍 already—very worried. 🧵
assets.uzleuven.be/files/2021-11/… Image
2) Travel restrictions — many countries implementing them to Southern Africa. But is that enough? This is why international arrival testing + quarantine is likely much better safety net against variant border incursion.
3) The two #B11529 cases in Hong Kong were interesting too. The second HK case acquired it from the first traveler from South Africa in hotel quarantine! Both were vaccinated.
Read 9 tweets
26 Nov
BREAKING—“Omicron Variant”—The World Health Organization designates the new #B11529 strain a "variant of concern" high priority risks rating and gives it the Greek name #Omicron.
2) How risky is the new #OmicronVariant? It has potentially 500% competitive advantage compared to the old Wuhan strain. That is staggering. Let’s hope the early data is wrong. But I worry it’s not given WHO concern about it 👇
3) this is the best pandemic strategy. @DrMikeRyan

Be fast. Have no regrets. The greatest error is not to move.
Read 12 tweets

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