The cast most likely related to trying to bolster capital control as Macau casinos, buying HK health insurance, buying oversea antiques were popular ways mainlanders use to skirt capital control and move money off China.

reuters.com/world/china/ch…
Let's not extend Macau mogul arrest news to "China cracks down on gambling" narrative.

Of the paltry data releases from China Ministry of Finance, Lottery Sales is a monthly report it religious publish and YTD, lottery sales up 20.7%. MOF encourages health growth in lottery.
Card/Mahjong playing, now adding Poker, is a social event for Chinese holidays, with full participation from kids as soon as they could count, at least in the village I grew up.

We used to own a little general shop with one/two tables.
Police do random targets for "gambling crack down".

Police has revenue target. In same town, people all know each other, so we would sometimes get advance tips and a few big stake tables will get caught and fined, and everyone happy and get back playing low stake games.
Tencent's payment infrastructure company fined $430k by SAFE for currency exchange beyond current license etc.

These news' background is enforcements for capital control. And if there is one thing emerging market countries learned last 20 yrs, it's capital control works for EM.
Significant foreign FX reserve (particularly $) also works for EM.

In this context, US dollar reserve status comes with great benefit, but to enjoy that, it is by tautology going to have to run trade deficits so other countries could "steal American jobs" and earn dollars.
Fake news: China forbids commercial use of mobile payment apps WeChat/Alipay for money collection, on March 1

Fact: PERSONAL Wechat Pay/Alipay static code couldn't be used for BUSINESS.

US small businesses using personal bank account to evade taxes illegal. So will be China.
Macau Junket Alvin Chau July denied "using gambling to move Yuan underground". Current police report accuses illegal gambling & using to move money.

You don't need to believe China police report to know this case has more to do with capital control than crack down on gambling.

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More from @liqian_ren

28 Nov
🧵 Lenovo and China Left+' attack on it.

It's been 3+ days in China headline yet not much English reporting.

It's related to #Didi as CEO and Lenovo founder father-daughter relationship.

Certainly one power family. Chinese phrases that bad things come in doubles.

/1
If Global Times @HuXijin_GT considered China Left, one attacking Lenovo could be considered China Left+, evidenced by Mr. Hu came out and publicly support Lenovo some

Grasp of politics/label rudimentary. If I am allowed to label Covid variants, it will be variant 1, 2, 3, .

/2
The China Left+ accuser's name is Sima Nan who listed 5 "Crimes" of Lenovo:

1. Sky-high executive salaries
2. Loss of China’s state-owned assets during privatization by Lenovo founder/CEO. Lenovo was originally a 100% state-owned enterprise by the Chinese Academy of Sciences

/3
Read 7 tweets
21 Nov
🧵U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Comm. 2021 Annual Report to Congress

5 sections: competition (92 pages), economic relations(168), security(100), Taiwan(52), HK(52). 500+ pages, 1.5 hr video, 32 recommendations, w. 10 top recommendations.


/1
Directly relevant, top recommendation related to Chinese VIE structured companies.

The commission not clear whether prohibition of VIE companies are limited to US listed or not. In the next 3 years most Chinese companies will be moving US listings to HK/mainland. /2
I myself have written extensively on VIE. It is not straightforward to say VIE is illegal in China, as VIE structured companies are now listed on China's own exchanges, folded into merge and acquisition regulations. /3

Read 10 tweets
17 Nov
Peak earnings age stays almost constant at around 45-50 years old in the U.S.

but decreases sharply from 55 to around 35 years old in China over the last 40 years. Image
Another way to look: life-cycle age-earnings cycle and see the extreme changes for China the last 60 years on how 35 becomes the new "golden age" or peaking earnings for Chinese males. ImageImage
Job posts specifying age requirements are normal staples. e.g. this job post for China Life Insurance, title says age 25-45, inside post, actually says 22-35, but could be flexible up to 45.

jobs.51job.com/hangzhou-jgq/1… Image
Read 5 tweets
15 Nov
🧵There are many arguments that could be made against China's Zero-Covid policis, but significant negative economic impact is not the best one.

So far impacts on aggregate service economy at best is muted.

wisdomtree.com/blog/2021-11-1…
Virus policies affected service sectors the most, but aggregate services are expanding by both PMI measures.
High Frequency data Baidu Congestion Index mostly on track with last year for top cities, except Beijing, which likely has more to do with its political city.
Read 6 tweets
14 Nov
🧵 A landmark civil court case in Chinese A share securities fraud just had a significant verdict ($385 million). The significance is not just in dollars.

Kangmei Pharm. (600518) accounting fraud 2016-1018, officially uncovered in 2019, unofficially by social media 2018. /1
It's first time, China Securities Investor Services Center (ISC) filed as plaintiff in representative of investors.

ISC, a non-profit financial institution and is under the direct administration of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC).

isc.com.cn/html/zxjs/

/2
Notice the murky status of non-profits. Its website ends with .com.cn, which for English readers may thought as for-profit companies.

China skeptics are right to be skeptical as ISC directly administered by CSRC (China's SEC), a govt entity.

On the ground China is complex /3
Read 10 tweets
4 Nov
Founder: "Global Semiconductor Supply Chain is 400b business, but China pork is 2T. My PhD is in Semi but now I am in using Chips/BigData on pig farm/insurance business."

I talk to a small Chinese business founded by
Singaporean. Here are Qs asked
soundcloud.com/chinaoftomorro…
1. About yourself and how you end up founding the company in China?

2. As a small business, what are the top 3 challenges? And what are the top 3 benefits of doing business in China

3. Why headquartering in Shanghai? And why choosing Chengdu to base your R&D operations.
4. You/your co-founder, your chief data scientist got PhDs in Singapore's premium university. What's the benefit and challenges of doing business as a Singaporean
5. On pig monitoring, who are your main competitors in China?
6. Do you plan to branch out from pig farms?
Read 7 tweets

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