On developed country privilege, and the marginalisation of the global South in much of what passes as Covid public science: a view from the South. A thread. 1/20
I do not intend to engage on the topic of the disproportionate and hypocritical treatment meted out by countries of the North to Southern Africa and Southern Africans stemming from the identification of the omicron variant. 2/20
I, and many others far more erudite than I, have already expressed those views (see, for example @tuliodna @_HassanF; @gregggonsalves; @GYamey) 3/20
Rather, I use a recent thread from @DrEricDing, about omicron and South Africa, to raise how well-funded, high-profile scientists like Ding perpetuate systems of power, extraction, neocoloniaism, and marginalisation between the North and South.
4/20
I have written about this in other contexts before; about how the intellectual community of the global South risks being left behind in the data revolution. (unsdsn.org/20ews/2017/09/…) The parallels are stark. 5/20
Ding offered a hot-take on the current South African situation, drawing on screen-grabs from pressers; and reports published by the @NICD_sa (our CDC). It is unclear whether he has ever actually visited South Africa, or any other African country. 6/20
He certainly does not seem to understand the extreme data problems we encounter here, even at the @nicd_sa, not least of which are poorly reported Covid deaths; an absence of real-time cause of death; …7/20
… or even our current inability to link our vaccine data system to either the testing or excess deaths systems, inter alia. 8/20
And despite those challenges, we are able to report weekly, in near-real time on new cases and excess deaths. I am involved in the analysis of data and the production of both reports. We have brilliant scientists capable of sequencing new variants…. 9/20
Together with world-leading doctors, epidemiologists and public health experts, such @lindagailbekker, Slim Abdool Karim, and Glenda Gray. We are this not least because we learned to stand on our own during the HIV/AIDS crisis. 10/20
Ding did not reach out to South African scientists in prepping his thread. Instead, he elected to systematically ignore the knowledge on the ground, arrogantly certain of his correctness and ability to comprehend the data. 11/20
Consequently, he misunderstands data from Gauteng, (a visit to the source would have served him well), and misrepresenting a single health district as being the entire province. His tone is alarmist, and wildly extrapolates and exaggerates the little we know 12/20
In doing so, he feeds panic, hysteria, his army of acolytes, and his own ego. In doing so he reveals his opinion on the scientists of the global South: they are not as illustrious or connected as he; so they can safely be ignored. 13/20
Did Ding seek to amplify the voices of scientists from the South, using his immense support base to increase the exposure of academics in far more intellectually, socially, politically, economically precarious environments than his? Not a damn. 14/20
In what way are his action different from the decried practice of parachute-research in developing countries, where the careers and reputations of scholars from the North are built off the backs of scholars and communities in the South? 15/20
Why should Ding think it appropriate to engage in this form of neo-colonial extraction? (In passing, I should note that the behaviour is not only the preserve of the political right. The political left is often as guilty). 16/20
By ignoring the many black South African scientists working on Covid in South Africa is he being racist? By ignoring the white South African scientists is he pandering to tired tropes from Spitting Image? What is his political game? 17/20
And the behaviour of his fans to him being challenged has been most revealing. More than one interlocutor has queried my right to disagree with and challenge Eric. Several have questioned my academic credentials. 18/20
His acolytes will hear nothing wrong about him. By criticising him, I am told, I am arming the right. Truly he is heading up a cult. Does he call off his troll army? No. 19/20
Eric, you were wrong. You behaved as badly and unethically as all those you criticise. Your troll army is horrible. Be better. 20/20
Urgh sorry. Link broke: unsdsn.org/news/2017/09/0…

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More from @tomtom_m

28 Jul
Latest @MRCza and @UCT_news report out on excess deaths, covering the period to 24 July 2021. 10 500 excess deaths in the week to 24 July 2021, bringing the total excess natural deaths since 3 May 2020 to 214 000. 130 000 of those in 2021. Report here: samrc.ac.za/reports/report…
20 000 natural deaths this week, still below the peak of 24 000 at the top of wave 2. Complex pattern may emerge in the next few weeks as Gauteng and its metros decrease, while other provinces (and metros) increase.
Nationally, natural deaths this week 119% of expected. Gauteng 181% (down from 210% last week). P-scores in other provinces increasing: NW (165%); LP (157%); MP (138%). Big increase in KZN to 100% (2x expected deaths), up from 51% last week.
Read 5 tweets
14 Jul
Latest @MRCza and @UCT_news excess deaths report out, covering the week to 10Jul21. 193k excess natural deaths since 3May20. 7300 in the week 4-10Jul21, up from 6000 in the previous week.
Report here: samrc.ac.za/reports/report…
Deaths in Gauteng continue to rise, but appear to be nearing a peak in the province; still increasingly quite strongly in Johannesburg. Both substantially higher than in Waves 1 or 2. Natural deaths in Gauteng this week 3x higher than expected.
Western Cape also increasing.
p-scores (excess natural deaths as a % of expected) rising in almost every province. Nationally, natural deaths 80% higher than expected. Limpopo and Mpumalanga, 2x. Western Cape 50% higher than expected.
Read 7 tweets
7 Jul
New @MRCza and @UCT_news report on excess deaths released, covering week to 3Jul21. 182 300 excess natural deaths since 3May20, 99 500 since the start of the year. Report available here: samrc.ac.za/reports/report…
Excess natural deaths in Gauteng, as well as its metros, continue to rise. Natural deaths in the week to 3Jul21 nearly 3x higher than expected. Weekly natural deaths in the province are at historic highs.
Nationally, natural deaths in the week to 3Jul21 were 57% higher than expected (last week 44%), and more than 50% higher than expected in NC and NW (with a weekly decline in the latter). WC natural deaths 25% higher (last week, 17%). A sharp increase in Limpopo (45% this week)
Read 7 tweets
2 Jul
A new paper from @mrcZA and @uct_news published today by the #SAMJ, looking at unnatural deaths, alcohol restrictions, and curfew.
A (longish) thread, explaining what we did - and did not - find. Paper, open access, available here: samj.org.za/index.php/samj…
2/We use data for 68 weeks, from early 2020 to mid-April 2021 (the paper was submitted in early May).We then categorise each week by the nature of alcohol restrictions, and duration of curfew, in force based on the changing sequence of lockdown regulations. >fig1<
3/The expected deaths are derived from the collaboration's mortality surveillance system. We then proceed to model the excess unnatural deaths each week, to remove effects associated with (e.g.) month ends, with covariates of alcohol restriction and categorical curfew duration.
Read 14 tweets
1 Jul
Remember that rather (very!) odd case brought by LFN and other parties to declare pretty much all DMA regulations unconstitutional, and which was judged in their favour by Justice Davis? Well the SCA has given all of those a snotklap: saflii.org/za/cases/ZASCA…
"This case, as we will show, is an object lesson as to how a constitutional
challenge to promulgated regulations should not be brought." @pierredevos, for your analysis please!
@pierredevos OUCH. Parallels with @pandata19, much?
Read 5 tweets
30 Jun
Latest @mrcZA and @UCT_news report on excess deaths in South Africa out, covering the period to 26/06/21. 176 700 excess natural deaths since 3May21; 94 000 of which since 3Jan21; and 3 900 in the last week.
Report here: samrc.ac.za/reports/report…
Much of the observed increase nationally driven by continuing increase in deaths in Gauteng and Johannesburg, where the current weekly deaths are at levels similar to that observed in the first two waves.
The p-scores (observed natural deaths expressed as a percentage above expected natural deaths) show rising mortality in all provinces other than NC and FS. Nationally, deaths in the week to 26Jun21 were 42% above expected - Gauteng 136% above expected. NC and NW both above 50%.
Read 7 tweets

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