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28 Jul, 5 tweets, 4 min read
Latest @MRCza and @UCT_news report out on excess deaths, covering the period to 24 July 2021. 10 500 excess deaths in the week to 24 July 2021, bringing the total excess natural deaths since 3 May 2020 to 214 000. 130 000 of those in 2021. Report here: samrc.ac.za/reports/report…
20 000 natural deaths this week, still below the peak of 24 000 at the top of wave 2. Complex pattern may emerge in the next few weeks as Gauteng and its metros decrease, while other provinces (and metros) increase.
Nationally, natural deaths this week 119% of expected. Gauteng 181% (down from 210% last week). P-scores in other provinces increasing: NW (165%); LP (157%); MP (138%). Big increase in KZN to 100% (2x expected deaths), up from 51% last week.
Unnatural deaths fell again this week, following the violence in the previous week which had resulted in a marked spike in unnatural deaths.
On the testing side, some good news at last: Gauteng, NW, MP and LP all decreasing. Others increased, but seemingly at a slower rate. PTP in WC in the week to 24 July was 32%; EC and KZN both 21%. Nationally, 29%.

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More from @tomtom_m

Tom Moultrie Profile picture
14 Jul
Latest @MRCza and @UCT_news excess deaths report out, covering the week to 10Jul21. 193k excess natural deaths since 3May20. 7300 in the week 4-10Jul21, up from 6000 in the previous week.
Report here: samrc.ac.za/reports/report…
Deaths in Gauteng continue to rise, but appear to be nearing a peak in the province; still increasingly quite strongly in Johannesburg. Both substantially higher than in Waves 1 or 2. Natural deaths in Gauteng this week 3x higher than expected.
Western Cape also increasing.
p-scores (excess natural deaths as a % of expected) rising in almost every province. Nationally, natural deaths 80% higher than expected. Limpopo and Mpumalanga, 2x. Western Cape 50% higher than expected.
Read 7 tweets
Tom Moultrie Profile picture
7 Jul
New @MRCza and @UCT_news report on excess deaths released, covering week to 3Jul21. 182 300 excess natural deaths since 3May20, 99 500 since the start of the year. Report available here: samrc.ac.za/reports/report…
Excess natural deaths in Gauteng, as well as its metros, continue to rise. Natural deaths in the week to 3Jul21 nearly 3x higher than expected. Weekly natural deaths in the province are at historic highs.
Nationally, natural deaths in the week to 3Jul21 were 57% higher than expected (last week 44%), and more than 50% higher than expected in NC and NW (with a weekly decline in the latter). WC natural deaths 25% higher (last week, 17%). A sharp increase in Limpopo (45% this week)
Read 7 tweets
Tom Moultrie Profile picture
2 Jul
A new paper from @mrcZA and @uct_news published today by the #SAMJ, looking at unnatural deaths, alcohol restrictions, and curfew.
A (longish) thread, explaining what we did - and did not - find. Paper, open access, available here: samj.org.za/index.php/samj…
2/We use data for 68 weeks, from early 2020 to mid-April 2021 (the paper was submitted in early May).We then categorise each week by the nature of alcohol restrictions, and duration of curfew, in force based on the changing sequence of lockdown regulations. >fig1<
3/The expected deaths are derived from the collaboration's mortality surveillance system. We then proceed to model the excess unnatural deaths each week, to remove effects associated with (e.g.) month ends, with covariates of alcohol restriction and categorical curfew duration.
Read 14 tweets
Tom Moultrie Profile picture
1 Jul
Remember that rather (very!) odd case brought by LFN and other parties to declare pretty much all DMA regulations unconstitutional, and which was judged in their favour by Justice Davis? Well the SCA has given all of those a snotklap: saflii.org/za/cases/ZASCA…
"This case, as we will show, is an object lesson as to how a constitutional
challenge to promulgated regulations should not be brought." @pierredevos, for your analysis please!
@pierredevos OUCH. Parallels with @pandata19, much?
Read 5 tweets
Tom Moultrie Profile picture
30 Jun
Latest @mrcZA and @UCT_news report on excess deaths in South Africa out, covering the period to 26/06/21. 176 700 excess natural deaths since 3May21; 94 000 of which since 3Jan21; and 3 900 in the last week.
Report here: samrc.ac.za/reports/report…
Much of the observed increase nationally driven by continuing increase in deaths in Gauteng and Johannesburg, where the current weekly deaths are at levels similar to that observed in the first two waves.
The p-scores (observed natural deaths expressed as a percentage above expected natural deaths) show rising mortality in all provinces other than NC and FS. Nationally, deaths in the week to 26Jun21 were 42% above expected - Gauteng 136% above expected. NC and NW both above 50%.
Read 7 tweets
Tom Moultrie Profile picture
23 Jun
Latest @mrcZA and @uct_news report on excess mortality released, data through 19Jun2021. Report here: samrc.ac.za/reports/report…
A total of 173 132 excess deaths estimated since 3May2020. 3124 excess natural deaths in the week 13-19 June (prev week 2706). 90 000 since 29Dec2020.
2/ Nationally, natural deaths in the week more than 50% higher than expected (reminder: methodology for 2021 described here: samrc.ac.za/sites/default/…; methodolology for 2020 published in the SAMJ: samj.org.za/index.php/samj…
3/ Very sharp increases in excess deaths in Gauteng and Johannesburg metro. Gauteng deaths in the week to 19Jun2021 80% higher than expected (56% last week). City of Johannesburg deaths nearly at 2x expected for the week (99.1%).
Read 7 tweets

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