Latest @MRCza and @UCT_news excess deaths report out, covering the week to 10Jul21. 193k excess natural deaths since 3May20. 7300 in the week 4-10Jul21, up from 6000 in the previous week.
Report here: samrc.ac.za/reports/report…
Deaths in Gauteng continue to rise, but appear to be nearing a peak in the province; still increasingly quite strongly in Johannesburg. Both substantially higher than in Waves 1 or 2. Natural deaths in Gauteng this week 3x higher than expected.
Western Cape also increasing.
p-scores (excess natural deaths as a % of expected) rising in almost every province. Nationally, natural deaths 80% higher than expected. Limpopo and Mpumalanga, 2x. Western Cape 50% higher than expected.
Still very congruence between reported Covid deaths and excess natural deaths, particularly in the Western Cape, but even in other provinces, reported deaths track Covid deaths, albeit at much lower levels
Unnatural deaths fell in the week to 10Jul21 (before the outbreak of violence), following the restrictions announced at end of June - although caution always required in not over-interpreting the most recent week's data.
On the testing side, 32.5% of tests in the week to 10Jul21 were positive (previous week 30.1%). Proportions testing positive increased in all provinces.
Please stay, and keep, safe - no matter where you are in the country
urgh. ..."very good congruence ..."
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New @MRCza and @UCT_news report on excess deaths released, covering week to 3Jul21. 182 300 excess natural deaths since 3May20, 99 500 since the start of the year. Report available here: samrc.ac.za/reports/report…
Excess natural deaths in Gauteng, as well as its metros, continue to rise. Natural deaths in the week to 3Jul21 nearly 3x higher than expected. Weekly natural deaths in the province are at historic highs.
Nationally, natural deaths in the week to 3Jul21 were 57% higher than expected (last week 44%), and more than 50% higher than expected in NC and NW (with a weekly decline in the latter). WC natural deaths 25% higher (last week, 17%). A sharp increase in Limpopo (45% this week)
A new paper from @mrcZA and @uct_news published today by the #SAMJ, looking at unnatural deaths, alcohol restrictions, and curfew.
A (longish) thread, explaining what we did - and did not - find. Paper, open access, available here: samj.org.za/index.php/samj…
2/We use data for 68 weeks, from early 2020 to mid-April 2021 (the paper was submitted in early May).We then categorise each week by the nature of alcohol restrictions, and duration of curfew, in force based on the changing sequence of lockdown regulations. >fig1<
3/The expected deaths are derived from the collaboration's mortality surveillance system. We then proceed to model the excess unnatural deaths each week, to remove effects associated with (e.g.) month ends, with covariates of alcohol restriction and categorical curfew duration.
Remember that rather (very!) odd case brought by LFN and other parties to declare pretty much all DMA regulations unconstitutional, and which was judged in their favour by Justice Davis? Well the SCA has given all of those a snotklap: saflii.org/za/cases/ZASCA…
"This case, as we will show, is an object lesson as to how a constitutional
challenge to promulgated regulations should not be brought." @pierredevos, for your analysis please!
Latest @mrcZA and @UCT_news report on excess deaths in South Africa out, covering the period to 26/06/21. 176 700 excess natural deaths since 3May21; 94 000 of which since 3Jan21; and 3 900 in the last week.
Report here: samrc.ac.za/reports/report…
Much of the observed increase nationally driven by continuing increase in deaths in Gauteng and Johannesburg, where the current weekly deaths are at levels similar to that observed in the first two waves.
The p-scores (observed natural deaths expressed as a percentage above expected natural deaths) show rising mortality in all provinces other than NC and FS. Nationally, deaths in the week to 26Jun21 were 42% above expected - Gauteng 136% above expected. NC and NW both above 50%.
Latest @mrcZA and @uct_news report on excess mortality released, data through 19Jun2021. Report here: samrc.ac.za/reports/report…
A total of 173 132 excess deaths estimated since 3May2020. 3124 excess natural deaths in the week 13-19 June (prev week 2706). 90 000 since 29Dec2020.
2/ Nationally, natural deaths in the week more than 50% higher than expected (reminder: methodology for 2021 described here: samrc.ac.za/sites/default/…; methodolology for 2020 published in the SAMJ: samj.org.za/index.php/samj…
3/ Very sharp increases in excess deaths in Gauteng and Johannesburg metro. Gauteng deaths in the week to 19Jun2021 80% higher than expected (56% last week). City of Johannesburg deaths nearly at 2x expected for the week (99.1%).
Ahead of the public holiday, the @mrcza and @UCT_news collaboration have released their latest report on excess natural deaths, covering the week to 12 June. 170k since 3 May 2020, more than half of which since the start of 2021. Report here: samrc.ac.za/reports/report…
Excess deaths in Gauteng (and Johannesburg) are rising quite steeply. Deaths in Gauteng in the week to 12 June 2021 more than 50% above expected.
Nationally, deaths in the week more than 30% higher than expected. In other provinces, natural mortality in the Northern Cape during the week is more than twice expected, for the fifth consecutive week.