--I'm posting the vaxx graphs side by side with the death rate graphs for easy comparison.
--Death rates for all counties are since 6/30/21, since a) that's roughly when the Delta wave started in the U.S. and b) every American 12+ had ample ability to get vaxxed by that point.
ALABAMA: Not much of a pattern in death rates...but also not much of one in vaxx rates (basically, vaxx rates are low across the board):
ALASKA: Both graphs are kind of all over the map, but then again, Alaska has some very unusual geography and demographics:
ARIZONA: Heeeeere we go: As the vaccination rates steadily go down, the death rates steadily go up. Of course 60% of AZ's population is in one county which I'm sure skews the results:
ARKANSAS: Again, not much of a pattern in vaxx rates...so not much of one in death rates:
COLORADO. Again, aside from a few small outliers, looks like a pretty clear connection.
CONNECTICUT, DELAWARE, DC, HAWAII, RHODE ISLAND: As always, I'm lumping all 5 together because none have more than a handful of counties individually; included for completeness. Even so, there's still a slight mirror effect.
FLORIDA: As I've noted repeatedly, Miami-Dade County's *death rate* since June seems to be pretty much in line w/what I'd expect; it's their alleged *vaccination rate* which seems to be a huge outlier...likely due to "vaccine tourism."
GEORGIA. The Peach State has a HUGE number of counties given its size (only Texas has more of them, but it's much larger in both population & land area).
MAINE: Notice how even with only a small downward slope on the left it's still matched by a similar upward slope on the right?
MARYLAND:
MASSACHUSETTS:
MICHIGAN (my home state). Detroit makes up nearly 40% of Wayne County.
MINNESOTA:
MISSISSIPPI.
COVID has killed 1 out of every 289 Mississippi residents to date.
MISSOURI. Whoa. 👀
MONTANA.
NEBRASKA. The state stopped reporting ALL county-level case/death data as of 6/30; since then they've kind of/sort of started again...the NY Times has somehow managed to keep track of it:
NEVADA. Like Arizona, the bulk of Nevada's total population can be found in a single county.
NEW HAMPSHIRE. Notice how the vaccination rate line is nearly level...yet there's *still* a small upslope on the death rate. Lack of masking in the redder NH counties?
NEW JERSEY: See New Hampshire above.
NEW MEXICO.
NEW YORK. BRAVO! Check out the NYC boroughs on the right side:
The rest of the states will have to wait until later this afternoon...stay tuned!
📣 OK, I'm back...picking up again with:
NORTH CAROLINA:
NORTH DAKOTA:
OHIO. Welp.
OKLAHOMA:
OREGON. It doesn't get any clearer than this.
(And I've been informed that the CDC data consistently has Baker County's vaxx rate way too high for some reason anyway.)
P.S. for those claiming I’m “cherry-picking” by starting on 6/30/21, here’s the history since the start of the pandemic. TL; DR: yes, urban blue counties were slammed much harder in the first wave. Since then rural Red America caught up & bypassed it: acasignups.net/21/11/17/red-s…
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Serious question: Aside from requiring proof of vaccination to fly or use other federally-controlled transportation, what else could the Biden Admin legally do to boost the U.S. vaxx rate that it isn’t already doing?
Several people have suggested raising health insurance premiums on the willingly unvaccinated. That’s not legal for a very good reason: acasignups.net/21/08/04/there…
Having said that, EMPLOYERS can raise their unvaccinated employees PORTION of their insurance premiums if they wish, as Delta Airlines is doing.
This is getting some traction again thanks to @jonathanweisman’s piece yesterday and the controversy regarding his framing of it (which I have mixed feelings about), so here it is again: acasignups.net/21/11/17/red-s…
Here’s what the cumulative COVID county-level death rate looked like by Trump’s 2020 vote as of July 2020, after the first wave ended. It was 7.6x higher in the Bluest tenth of the country than the Reddest tenth.
By Election Day 2020, the Reddest counties had already started to @catch up:” The bluest bracket was only twice as high cumulatively as the reddest bracket:
For those criticizing @jonathanweisman's framing (especially by citing my own data/analysis in response):
First, while I appreciate the props, if you read the article, you'll see that *he* actually cites that exact same data/analysis in the article itself. 1/
The issue is how the same data & the same empirical data is *framed*.
In this post, I stated that the GOP is shrugging off thousands of their own voters dying as "a small price to pay" in return for driving Biden's approval down, and that it's working: acasignups.net/21/11/03/simpl…
This is pretty much identical to @jonathanweisman's story (which, again, cites my own data to drive home this point).
The difference? My blog post clearly presents this truth as being horrifying & inhumane, while some feel his *tweet* frames it as a clever political strategy.
📣 WEEKLY UPDATE: For those who followed my state-by-state county-level vaccination breakout, here's all 3,144 U.S. counties (+ the territories) with some additional context/details: acasignups.net/21/11/23/weekl…
📣 For stats folks: Here's how the national county-level R-squared has changed since February. Notice how from mid-March through around mid-September the R^2 increased regardless of other methodology/policy changes. Since then it has leveled off:
Here's the same data in bar graph mode, with each bracket having roughly the same number of U.S. residents.
Notice how the vaxx drop-off is fairly mild until the Trump vote hits around 50%...at which it drops off rapidly: