First example are the full suite of fibs that you set up on a high level, second set of fibs are the target entry fibs
Then, the most important thing is this:
Set your fibs up on the timeframe ABOVE the timeframe you intend on trading on.
Eg I would set fibs up on the 4H if I was going to trade on the 1H, or I would use the 1H to trade on the 15M, or the 15M to trade on the 5M
4H & 1H below:
Then what you want to do is fire up the 200 EMA
If price is trading below the EMA, then only focus on shorts.
If price is trading above the EMA, then only focus on longs
REMEMBER: Trade with the trend if you're struggling with counter trend moves
This is your directional bias
Then, we add the Stochastic RSI (free indicator on @tradingview)
I keep the 14,3,3 settings if I use this - settings are shown here
Then the last ingredient is Market Structure.
I call it the Structured Fib Method because we are using our fib set ups to simply beat the previous market structure.
We don't aim for extravagant targets, we simply have one target and no TP's.
(keep reading!)
Notice how the previous market structure was beaten (ie previous swing low) - this then offers us up a potential upcoming short as:
- We are under the 200 EMA
and
- Have broken previous market structure (lower low)
How do we trade this?
Keep going!
👇👇👇
So we've got our overall fibs in play from the 4H. These are the key levels you want to look for entry on.
If you also pull your entry fibs and there is confluence with both sets of fibs, and under 200EMA for a short, then you're laughing
0.618 levels lining up on the below:
One more thing though, you're also looking for one more bit of confluence:
The Stochastic RSI
If shorting, this ideally should be oversold (above 80 - see blue circle), but I'm sharing this example with you to show that even lower signals can be good entries too (red circle)
So this trade lined up with the 0.618 level of the overall fibs, the 0.618 level of the target fibs, and the Stoch RSI was also on it's way to oversold.
This would have been just under 2R if you took the trade.
So that's it.
Simple as fuck right? Give it a whirl yourself
RECAP
- Draw your overall fibs on the TF above the TF you want to trade
- Wait for market structure to be broken
- Pull entry fibs
- Aim for oversold or overbought Stoch RSI levels
- Trade with the trend (200 EMA)
- Aim for prev MS only
This method can be used on any timeframe, and can be used for both long and shorting opportunities.
For longs, just flip the method ie directional bias for longs when price is trading above the 200EMA, Stoch RSI is oversold, and market structure has been beaten
It's been a while, so say hi to the old chook for me, keep smashing the trading, and stay hungry!
Thanks to @Delta_Exchange for your continued support, and if you'd like to trade over there, use the below ref link for a discount on fees!
Here's my 100 weeks of backtested $EURUSD price action from June 15 2020 to 09 May 2022, here's what is covered:
- Occurrence of high & low of the week
- % of high and low of the week per day
- % of Mondays high / low being swept on a given day
Took me a while, hope you enjoy
The high and low of the week
Here we can determine that the low of the week fell 38/100 times on a Mon, while the high of the week was also most likely to form on this day too with 31/100 occurrences
Note that there's during the week, there's more of a spread compared to $BTC
Percentage / Chance wise, you can see that Monday is more likely to be the low of the week by a factor of 5, 2, and 3 compared to a T, W, or Th respectively
Friday is different though.
With the high of the wk, Monday leads, followed by a Thurs, then Friday.
I made a free Price Action course not long ago - I'll share some detailed threads on portions of the course so you don't have to spend hours watching them when trading #Bitcoin & #Altcoins
We'll jump ahead to Module 4 - Ranges & Targets.
Why? Because I loved sharing this one!
What's in a Range?
A range is simply defined by anchoring two points on a chart based on:
A timeframe (daily, weekly, monthly etc)
Market structure
Or a combination of both
The method I use to anchor the range is a Fibonacci Tool, with values set at 1, 0.5, and 0
Range Tool Setup 1/1
1) First Select the 3rd item down on the left hand side menu
Then select "Fib Retracement"
2) Open up the settings of the Fib Retracement Tool, then set up the Fib tool to show the 0, 1, and 0.5 levels
The Trend Continuation fibs - covered in upcoming Module 3
Of course these are originally based on the ICT fibs, but nuanced per the following for #crypto & #bitcoin
- 0.72 entry point
- A negative 0.12 level
- 0.28 level
Why though?
The 0.72 Entry Point:
The reason for this is simple - it's the mid point of the 0.66 and 0.786 levels of the fib, where I've personally found much better entries and setups using this
The negative 0.12 level:
Included in this particular suite of fibs because you're looking for a get in, get out move that simply beats previous market structure.
By entering at the 0.72 level, this -0.12 level yields a 3RR move if the SL is at 1.
I backtested 100 weeks of $BTC #bitcoin price action from June 15 2020 to 09 May 2022, was able to determine the below:
- Occurrence of high & low of the week
- % of high and low of the week per day
- % of Mondays high / low being swept on a given day
8 hrs of research for you:
The high and low of the week
Here we can determine that the low of the week fell 43/100 times on a Mon, while the high of the week was also most likely to form on this day too with 27/100 occurrences
The rest of the days are generally similar, bar Tuesday lows & weekend highs
Percentage / Chance wise, it's obviously a no brainer in the fact that given the sample data of 100 weeks, that the % are simply a given of the numbers above